{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffd5e9f7-d9c8-428a-996d-71c3bfba0fb7", "symbol": "ZHDG", "name": "TIDAL ETF TRUST ZEGA BUY & HEDGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.46, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.889, "architecture_energy": 45.121, "architecture_maturity": 14.932, "architecture_confidence": 77.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.78, "rotation_up": 54.59, "upward_expansion": 78.6, "deceleration": 56.53, "rotation_down": 22.2, "downward_expansion": 5.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.68334, 23.552416, 23.386875, 23.080144 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.1737, "trend_reference": 22.783317, "distance_from_trend": 0.061026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.82393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.337472, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067083, "excess_performance": -0.058542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006915, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.436074, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14788, "relative_activity": 0.56318, "balance": 1.436074, "dry_up": 0.741658, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026265, "annualized_volatility": 0.116846, "from_high_reference": -0.005198, "from_low_reference": 0.19886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.783317, "fair_value_reference": 19.82393, "structural_low": 20.8478, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007066, "positive_rate": 0.740741, "directional_follow_through": 0.740741, "median_excess_return": -0.00409, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.051819, "worst_return": -0.065561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036487, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.012257, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.068308, "worst_return": -0.067329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061473, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.031873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107287, "worst_return": -0.010938, 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"close": 23.27, "volume": 15494, "typical_volume": 30677.35, "trend": 22.699167, "fair_value": 19.730743, "relative_strength": -3.915365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.042274, "energy": 34.132276, "activity_lines": [ 23.415507, 23.41366, 23.20059, 22.937714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.4655, "volume": 11183, "typical_volume": 28879.9, "trend": 22.73236, "fair_value": 19.775158, "relative_strength": -4.019578, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.945866, "energy": 33.55921, "activity_lines": [ 23.444207, 23.418102, 23.263985, 22.987154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.1737, "volume": 14788, "typical_volume": 26258.05, "trend": 22.783317, "fair_value": 19.82393, "relative_strength": -4.337472, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.888707, "energy": 45.120536, "activity_lines": [ 23.68334, 23.552416, 23.386875, 23.080144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }