{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffe77aff-d3e2-40de-90f4-29214359ee8b", "symbol": "MXE", "name": "Mexico Equity And Income Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.231, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.432, "architecture_energy": 8.974, "architecture_maturity": 18.925, "architecture_confidence": 60.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.2, "rotation_up": 20.8, "upward_expansion": 13.56, "deceleration": 35.51, "rotation_down": 32.55, "downward_expansion": 58.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.23024, 13.201029, 13.293717, 13.294086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.5483, "trend_reference": 13.31263, "distance_from_trend": 0.017703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.407643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.88404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022489, "excess_performance": -0.148114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34009, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15899, "relative_activity": 1.166792, "balance": 1.34009, "dry_up": 0.968608, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051351, "annualized_volatility": 0.22834, "from_high_reference": -0.052566, "from_low_reference": 0.284253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.31263, "fair_value_reference": 10.407643, "structural_low": 12.12, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001937, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004702, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.126464, "worst_return": -0.089734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017045, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.247073, "worst_return": -0.10117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112878, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.331206, "worst_return": -0.10274, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.039776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.223105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", 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29158, "typical_volume": 13004.1, "trend": 13.197393, "fair_value": 10.316444, "relative_strength": -6.393946, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.582466, "energy": 14.545305, "activity_lines": [ 13.126027, 13.267289, 13.302498, 13.300411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.1401, "volume": 18102, "typical_volume": 13474.75, "trend": 13.230063, "fair_value": 10.338858, "relative_strength": -2.81431, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.312487, "energy": 17.773687, "activity_lines": [ 13.09832, 13.224196, 13.2905, 13.296714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0837, "volume": 12844, "typical_volume": 13727.75, "trend": 13.25418, "fair_value": 10.359728, "relative_strength": -2.76443, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.270521, "energy": 22.169022, "activity_lines": [ 13.070487, 13.177575, 13.277891, 13.287271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0852, "volume": 5949, "typical_volume": 13765.95, "trend": 13.273687, "fair_value": 10.38208, "relative_strength": -3.866995, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.927366, "energy": 22.198522, "activity_lines": [ 13.074073, 13.144158, 13.265455, 13.276369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5483, "volume": 15899, "typical_volume": 13626.25, "trend": 13.31263, "fair_value": 10.407643, "relative_strength": -3.88404, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.43182, "energy": 8.973687, "activity_lines": [ 13.23024, 13.201029, 13.293717, 13.294086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }