{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fff52914-eede-49a2-8eb1-dbd6320fb4e9", "symbol": "ZWT", "name": "BMO Covered Call Technology ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.11, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.914, "architecture_energy": 26.049, "architecture_maturity": 69.333, "architecture_confidence": 87.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.69, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 58.28, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 19.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.480537, 65.833533, 65.409334, 63.414568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 67.360001, "trend_reference": 61.00532, "distance_from_trend": 0.104166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.284799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.007111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.216177, "excess_performance": 0.095755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010071, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.78821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17900, "relative_activity": 0.869354, "balance": 1.78821, "dry_up": 1.437591, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042472, "annualized_volatility": 0.238591, "from_high_reference": -0.028982, "from_low_reference": 0.318435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.00532, "fair_value_reference": 47.284799, "structural_low": 51.090882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019528, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.004014, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.107759, "worst_return": -0.085777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046797, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179447, "worst_return": -0.071345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.19761, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310319, "worst_return": 0.161535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -1.579482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.959257, "energy": 30.125829, "activity_lines": [ 65.267764, 65.979396, 64.821919, 62.74501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.300003, "volume": 45100, "typical_volume": 22335.0, "trend": 60.74795, "fair_value": 47.03765, "relative_strength": -0.48645, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.514249, "energy": 21.303165, "activity_lines": [ 64.829616, 65.613148, 64.993312, 62.987984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.360001, "volume": 17900, "typical_volume": 20590.0, "trend": 61.00532, "fair_value": 47.284799, "relative_strength": 1.007111, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.914453, "energy": 26.049401, "activity_lines": [ 65.480537, 65.833533, 65.409334, 63.414568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }