{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fff5d6c9-21f5-4073-9192-7a4379908aad", "symbol": "IJK", "name": "ISHARES TRUST S&P MID-CAP 400 GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.508, "architecture_energy": 33.242, "architecture_maturity": 43.776, "architecture_confidence": 83.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.3, "rotation_up": 37.54, "upward_expansion": 58.18, "deceleration": 87.02, "rotation_down": 26.03, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.191333, 114.246459, 113.227632, 111.061781 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 117.38, "trend_reference": 108.373287, "distance_from_trend": 0.083108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.959478, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.651656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123423, "excess_performance": -0.002202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016517, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1355302, "relative_activity": 0.643177, "balance": 0.800817, "dry_up": 0.432923, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032819, "annualized_volatility": 0.157389, "from_high_reference": -0.001871, "from_low_reference": 0.291196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.373287, "fair_value_reference": 90.959478, "structural_low": 96.748303, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.009011, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.008727, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.053423, "worst_return": -0.064902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019802, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033872, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.057661, "worst_return": -0.177646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055948, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.259186, "worst_return": 0.011363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027891, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"energy": 48.335424, "activity_lines": [ 114.881164, 114.253796, 111.601181, 109.363963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.4, "volume": 767915, "typical_volume": 2189429.05, "trend": 106.898807, "fair_value": 90.207156, "relative_strength": 1.415825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.190398, "energy": 36.732507, "activity_lines": [ 114.011333, 114.039068, 111.947511, 109.749872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.18, "volume": 739850, "typical_volume": 2147064.25, "trend": 107.37493, "fair_value": 90.446811, "relative_strength": 2.67038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.766628, "energy": 30.427927, "activity_lines": [ 113.562, 113.969613, 112.33946, 110.15511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.88, "volume": 785949, "typical_volume": 2106800.45, "trend": 107.831669, "fair_value": 90.684202, "relative_strength": 0.372636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.49956, "energy": 21.352476, "activity_lines": [ 112.844667, 113.609663, 112.550559, 110.44576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.38, "volume": 1355302, "typical_volume": 2107198.6, "trend": 108.373287, "fair_value": 90.959478, "relative_strength": 1.651656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.507834, "energy": 33.241548, "activity_lines": [ 114.191333, 114.246459, 113.227632, 111.061781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }