{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SAX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"01448191-41da-48e4-8ab0-b38050c7e2f2","symbol":"SAX","name":"Ströer SE & Co. KGaA","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Communication Services","industry":"Advertising Agencies"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":8.3,"averageExpectedMove":10.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":0.4,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":4.6,"medianReturn":5.8,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":53.3,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":4.7,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":75.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":56.2,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 56.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.6% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.6% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-02-13","price":32.656738},{"date":"2026-04-17","price":35.642765}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[53.6851,53.7759,49.8699,50.3241,50.7328,52.8221,51.0508,50.7328,52.3679,50.097,49.7336,44.9828,44.2198,42.4212,44.3288,44.6376,44.1289,42.1123,41.9488,40.9314,50.0515,49.5065,51.5049,51.8229,51.0053,51.8683,51.187,48.2802,51.187,52.595,52.05,49.6428,43.5112,44.1017,46.3272,46.9631,47.5989,45.7822,46.7814,45.873,46.3272,49.862,46.7811,45.691,48.2505,47.1603,46.5915,45.5014,45.2644,44.5535,44.3165,40.7143,40.4773,39.3398,37.4439,37.1595,36.9699,35.311,35.3584,38.8184,37.6335,38.2022,35.9745,33.9839,32.7515,32.9411,33.7469,34.6474,34.2208,34.6474,34.4578,35.3584,35.6902,33.7943,34.0313,31.9932,31.2348,32.6567,32.6093,32.7989,32.0406,31.4244,28.4858,27.8222,29.5759,32.761,35.6428,34.4104,35.2257,37.1784,36.5149,35.548,35.7944,34.9,34.22,35.54,33.76,34.76,34.96,35.76,35.18,39.64,40.86,40.54],"consensus":[-8.3663,-11.7109,-69.0162,-28.0825,-24.3055,18.2984,-30.9382,-21.3543,26.3341,-49.4861,-31.7128,-79.4129,-58.6987,-71.5759,0.0,-25.7784,-37.0414,-60.6584,-38.5212,-60.5028,64.3349,16.5456,64.0483,37.8457,23.1997,43.1781,8.2613,-38.8758,39.3163,37.6812,0.0,-24.5859,-66.4751,-15.9584,0.0,-8.2137,12.2322,-25.1767,0.0,-27.3299,-11.7077,51.9164,-31.5736,-30.9729,37.9761,-22.1452,-18.2979,-20.0163,-29.6877,-33.316,-24.5204,-71.724,-36.0077,-62.224,-71.7758,-48.0244,-38.619,-62.3651,-37.2909,25.4872,-27.7822,0.0,-48.4336,-61.3805,-53.5779,-29.1691,-14.8242,8.2214,-12.3399,0.0,0.0,21.6715,10.4605,-40.262,0.0,-55.3151,-40.147,0.0,-17.7039,0.0,-9.8233,-23.8593,-70.6858,-47.7612,0.0,46.0033,67.0782,9.6345,42.6845,61.2298,8.2889,0.0,16.909,-17.5999,-10.6873,23.255,-12.4431,12.3267,21.1305,23.3132,0.0,69.9279,54.2327,35.5958],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-29.5797,-64.371,-76.2269,-47.2297,-31.9994,-57.5853,-36.875,21.4371,-27.6356,0.0,-57.4939,-62.909,-48.4895,-23.5048,-10.1011,9.5696,-20.4593,0.0,0.0,27.038,3.2258,-43.0234,0.0,-59.3162,-37.5972,0.0,-16.878,0.0,-11.3593,-23.1348,-73.603,-47.8081,0.0,40.805,61.6186,1.1069,40.7574,52.5098,0.1391,0.0,14.704,-21.9667,-7.1763,23.8571,-5.3612,17.1993,26.3789,27.0135,0.0,65.5165,52.2083,32.8437],"force":[-14.7838,-59.6861,-72.9045,-28.0371,-17.0887,-66.8054,-8.2708,73.1408,-43.0071,0.0,-68.1892,-69.2641,-58.1396,-3.6516,-15.1428,35.1642,-4.9619,0.0,0.0,32.0547,10.3532,-61.7646,0.0,-64.6136,-32.8595,0.0,-9.7899,0.0,-8.6331,-17.8842,-90.0096,-36.2644,0.0,83.0864,91.4559,25.7468,32.3443,77.4116,26.3596,0.0,4.9214,-32.2691,-13.7938,30.2593,-13.2599,14.5261,21.8694,23.0902,0.0,92.2842,45.8421,5.6002],"direction":[-58.5139,-61.5833,-65.8827,-63.2093,-61.563,-64.6562,-58.495,3.9222,-17.0747,0.0,-23.968,-54.0026,-56.1348,-53.8693,-41.627,12.5642,-8.3307,0.0,0.0,8.1218,18.8055,-21.747,0.0,-44.1006,-48.2664,0.0,-24.3005,0.0,-8.918,-28.9551,-53.5491,-55.9197,0.0,25.4562,55.9052,47.1828,52.2727,59.6371,42.3518,0.0,27.9916,-2.1312,-12.481,17.5639,-19.9532,5.1869,14.6045,19.2435,0.0,59.0008,62.5397,60.1664],"intensity":[82.6923,28.8462,46.1538,21.1538,15.3846,42.3077,3.8462,98.0769,92.3077,34.6154,57.6923,57.6923,61.5385,11.5385,34.6154,19.2308,11.5385,1.9231,9.6154,26.9231,53.8462,57.6923,53.8462,61.5385,55.7692,59.6154,38.4615,36.5385,42.3077,17.3077,80.7692,67.3077,53.8462,94.2308,82.6923,48.0769,17.3077,78.8462,53.8462,94.2308,80.7692,19.2308,36.5385,51.9231,82.6923,51.9231,1.9231,46.1538,9.6154,96.1538,86.5385,17.3077],"confirmation":[78.9736,87.8016,90.9348,82.7708,79.8028,88.165,79.055,55.84,77.3565,4.0294,83.9628,87.8587,85.3615,53.9761,29.7996,28.7785,48.9335,25.1217,1.7865,75.1696,48.7877,81.4971,3.8965,85.9232,80.6638,6.6151,73.4366,25.0931,71.0838,75.4639,91.1639,82.9325,33.7843,83.9304,90.2912,7.8972,81.3733,88.2196,7.3441,5.8475,50.4125,51.3458,48.9015,75.6459,49.4479,49.2706,74.7043,75.397,26.728,91.1255,85.1296,63.8518],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[31.4484,18.5521,14.1054,25.5697,30.2344,18.8003,30.0216,27.1632,34.434,46.3823,42.4329,19.0299,23.0958,35.3427,37.7945,17.1025,44.294,38.3152,24.3624,12.0612,39.0813,12.1554,19.2982,22.1573,29.9166,41.451,35.548,31.4938,39.3413,30.9783,14.5656,26.0982,50.1101,11.2497,16.4374,45.1289,28.5499,18.8601,19.6535,26.4904,7.5333,34.5707,38.1209,11.8964,36.7126,10.685,14.8896,1.649,43.4199,14.8409,22.8415,32.0286],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":35.6,"control":32.8,"force":5.6,"direction":60.2,"confirmation":63.9,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":32.0,"intensity":17.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+35.6","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+32.8","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+5.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+60.2","detail":"Upward 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