{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MSTW Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"034920a6-95ef-4269-a065-953f8476773f","symbol":"MSTW","name":"ROUNDHILL MSTR WEEKLYPAY ETF","exchange":"CBOE","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet established a clear direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":57,"displayedObservations":57,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 31.8% across 3 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics 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056,9.1376,10.1805,25.8968,23.4477,20.6016,21.7424,4.1926,26.3842,37.1225,36.6403,37.5306,5.6099,30.0158,34.4801,8.0008,29.7784,41.0994,21.1927,35.5662,32.0669,25.1251,22.7841,23.9596,40.8486,17.6081,36.9711,23.7847,12.7837,38.7965,24.9448,29.2888,28.8608,14.056,12.0414,10.6355,22.7812],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-42.3,"control":-34.5,"force":-86.8,"direction":-19.5,"confirmation":83.0,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":22.8,"intensity":57.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-42.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-34.5","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-86.8","detail":"Downward 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risk","title":"Drawdown and recovery pressure","description":"Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.","reason":"Selected because the current recovery or drawdown path is central to the tape.","series":[{"label":"Drawdown","values":[0.0,-11.5486,-3.3981,-12.199,-14.662,-21.5319,-20.9798,-22.2788,-18.5916,-28.6639,-17.2678,-30.0173,-34.7041,-35.0616,-40.2141,-47.8642,-58.7865,-65.9527,-64.4987,-64.0321,-64.7905,-67.4026,-68.9278,-69.4164,-69.38,-65.7046,-68.3556,-71.3806,-74.6713,-75.0586,-75.6861,-75.9307,-75.2157,-73.8978,-74.8552,-77.0192,-78.3011,-76.5465,-68.3672,-68.0003,-67.3142,-64.9179,-67.242,-71.0688,-71.4037,-79.8628,-79.7025,-82.1862,-88.1334,-85.2708,-86.5845,-86.7934,-87.363,-87.1185,-86.0399,-87.2458,-82.9695],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9,"fill":"rgba(193,63,63,.10)"},{"label":"Recovery","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,4.7442,0.0,15.9752,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4.2706,5.641,3.4136,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.119,12.1365,3.4686,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.9708,8.4462,4.4685,0.0,0.0,8.086,45.7805,47.4717,50.6337,61.6768,50.9663,33.3304,31.7871,0.0,0.7962,0.0,0.0,24.1233,13.0528,11.2926,6.4924,8.5527,17.6424,7.4803,43.5167],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Prior 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,69.091,133.4403,145.4975,122.34,145.5961,128.2904,83.4562,110.3213,95.5401,85.1497,186.1272,76.1835,128.9264,101.7036,107.0192,76.0344,82.475,147.094,123.7408,92.2866,110.5371,181.223,75.6024,84.1468,102.32,118.3952,145.1835,224.8637,132.4526,103.3393,108.5531,115.3419,114.1952,89.199,129.596,172.5002,121.6842,113.3797,139.5958,76.6466,88.0079,151.9536,76.0172,77.0362,72.6674,81.2779,74.8032,85.7136,132.6944,165.7921],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,67.36,66.5879,66.4288,66.2811,66.1439,66.0709,65.1844,64.3613,63.2368,62.427,61.8592,61.059,57.8489,54.4836,51.6243,48.439,45.1666,42.7651,41.1334,40.5836,40.1566,39.9427,40.347,40.7299,41.0855,41.4847,41.7075,41.932,41.8048,41.688,40.2801],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive 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geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13.8312,15.4164,18.2903,24.0225,29.469,27.2424,26.652,26.5799,27.6741,27.8404,26.9721,25.8962,23.1774,24.262,26.4352,30.6776,30.1168,29.5717,29.0073,27.5406,25.1253,25.4358,27.2004,27.7607,24.7419,19.3843,18.8972,18.3169,16.4976,17.5369,19.4214,19.4751,29.1093,27.8624,31.6862,48.4336,37.948,39.8356,38.6288,38.8592,36.3777,32.3362,33.7244,25.4679],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope 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map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13.219,25.3448,12.7657,43.099,9.1632,7.4961,7.8127,8.84,10.3142,1.8825,1.544,3.6598,7.6822,6.6547,3.1159,1.5512,2.2327,2.2811,7.1682,3.6443,3.1107,8.5536,9.6623,8.9863,8.6273,9.6764,11.6099,10.2053,7.0304,5.1497,9.7334,26.17,27.8603,34.8049,46.3339,54.9361,48.1951,46.6928,8.741,10.5798,4.3074,0.2965,11.3957,6.4194,5.8619,3.6145,4.5791,8.8347,4.077,20.9484],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From 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