{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"NGVC Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"06e7c2cc-40d5-4311-8680-70bc2dca4daf","symbol":"NGVC","name":"Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Grocery Stores"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has not yet established a clear direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":24},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":24},{"week":3,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":24},{"week":4,"averageReturn":7.9,"sample":23},{"week":5,"averageReturn":10.0,"sample":23},{"week":6,"averageReturn":11.8,"sample":23},{"week":7,"averageReturn":16.0,"sample":23},{"week":8,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":23},{"week":9,"averageReturn":15.7,"sample":23},{"week":10,"averageReturn":14.5,"sample":23},{"week":11,"averageReturn":16.8,"sample":23},{"week":12,"averageReturn":21.8,"sample":22},{"week":13,"averageReturn":23.7,"sample":22},{"week":14,"averageReturn":24.9,"sample":22},{"week":15,"averageReturn":26.4,"sample":21},{"week":16,"averageReturn":24.3,"sample":21},{"week":17,"averageReturn":26.2,"sample":21},{"week":18,"averageReturn":26.5,"sample":21},{"week":19,"averageReturn":27.9,"sample":21},{"week":20,"averageReturn":29.4,"sample":21},{"week":21,"averageReturn":30.3,"sample":20},{"week":22,"averageReturn":28.8,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":33.7,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":34.4,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":35.3,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":33.2,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":35.8,"averageExpectedMove":35.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-24.0,"medianReturn":-24.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-35.8,"medianReturn":-35.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-46.9,"medianReturn":-46.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-16.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-24.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-30.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-30.7,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-34.2,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-32.7,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-34.4,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-33.8,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-32.9,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-35.8,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-33.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-34.9,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-32.0,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-35.5,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-34.7,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-37.0,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-39.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-36.7,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-32.3,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-37.2,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-34.6,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-31.8,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-46.0,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-46.9,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Support weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"Treat the weaker support as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 37.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 28.8% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 9.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-05-09","price":58.454511}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[24.4591,25.8066,25.6816,27.8615,27.5501,27.1803,25.341,25.9541,26.6061,25.8665,26.6061,32.883,31.9585,44.3759,45.787,42.6089,40.9795,38.2475,38.3256,40.4429,37.4474,39.3501,40.4916,42.4821,48.3363,47.7509,41.7503,43.3602,36.2919,35.832,36.9377,37.2997,40.2254,44.2861,46.7323,47.5347,49.5014,58.4545,50.431,48.8458,47.8988,44.4067,40.7479,40.4928,38.4721,39.3255,38.3348,38.6781,39.2176,37.5402,38.7468,38.0699,39.7571,37.7168,38.1885,36.8109,35.3546,37.0077,39.5563,36.683,38.2377,39.8515,31.5761,31.0153,31.8713,28.3585,27.3056,24.8128,25.1888,24.9118,25.5252,24.4369,24.7733,26.4651,25.6835,27.029,26.1485,26.5541,24.8425,26.7421,25.8171,25.4689,25.1903,25.837,26.0061,26.3244,28.1252,27.2497,29.4185,26.2747,28.2446,28.76,29.36,30.1,31.58,30.11,32.11,32.6,32.89,32.73,30.01,32.06,28.39,28.13],"consensus":[40.0164,62.3068,21.9029,66.9688,17.1062,19.9749,-27.9177,19.6532,21.0572,-17.4609,29.1208,76.3817,17.2869,86.8022,68.6134,8.0392,11.1546,-17.4792,10.7989,40.9921,-30.6445,42.5535,33.929,49.6743,73.1358,31.8877,-29.3759,27.3745,-62.0866,-30.8817,-10.8968,-22.0514,33.8404,54.449,52.4146,41.7899,47.9285,74.2985,-13.9824,0.0,0.0,-39.1445,-52.1085,-28.0265,-45.6414,-14.1129,-28.5282,-22.6451,-12.5206,-35.0526,0.0,-22.3382,9.6979,-30.2296,0.0,-26.6578,-43.7611,8.6528,29.3188,-38.1482,16.0685,29.7848,-68.6381,-41.7892,-20.0267,-61.4714,-52.536,-67.5486,-31.3241,-39.8119,-18.994,-44.8974,-17.4842,12.4762,-24.9104,20.3396,-18.6713,0.0,-35.3677,17.2839,-21.3889,0.0,-16.1975,0.0,0.0,9.0908,45.3885,0.0,53.3415,-30.6351,31.2967,20.5089,24.3509,40.5225,53.4791,0.0,54.5144,41.4125,25.5944,24.3287,-33.8156,28.2688,-50.3666,19.0868],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[11.9247,-35.8914,0.0,-24.9692,-43.8076,16.3621,30.9575,-45.7868,12.329,30.3323,-62.9963,-41.0454,-10.8323,-57.2721,-56.9263,-72.6469,-24.4553,-38.8891,-13.4868,-57.52,-17.184,12.6183,-31.8099,17.9184,-25.4717,0.0,-42.8359,21.4953,-29.4848,0.0,-26.2779,0.0,0.0,5.4239,42.8141,0.0,52.9576,-35.7005,32.388,14.7359,27.8671,37.7514,53.9057,0.0,50.6858,42.2199,20.8177,17.85,-32.4681,33.453,-40.4659,9.2408],"force":[28.0883,-36.5983,0.0,-27.6352,-43.2199,35.5781,49.9889,-56.0922,29.5102,36.5188,-97.6252,-26.1756,-8.3199,-70.5332,-38.5855,-65.3388,-0.2627,-18.2414,-11.0128,-30.2917,-9.0835,45.1222,-18.2307,43.6963,-27.6373,0.0,-39.5446,36.2853,-25.1587,0.0,-11.6833,0.0,0.0,10.7067,55.2981,0.0,58.515,-62.1473,45.2695,13.1306,17.3486,35.2847,52.4813,0.0,65.231,26.7107,6.7278,3.6251,-64.2296,36.8615,-86.4499,8.9641],"direction":[5.983,-19.21,0.0,-27.8895,-44.0944,19.3902,12.6818,-16.6013,10.741,24.349,-54.3806,-53.7917,-50.7822,-59.7981,-57.4831,-63.3005,-61.7362,-56.2741,-46.7214,-40.9042,-36.8042,11.0048,-21.7963,6.4233,-4.4951,0.0,-23.8491,1.1017,-9.4439,0.0,-7.9014,0.0,0.0,12.1271,41.2525,0.0,50.0849,-2.3375,20.0688,32.3769,25.334,47.4307,53.7043,0.0,51.2352,50.9911,44.5297,46.521,-13.6312,16.2062,-35.908,37.5699],"intensity":[21.1538,32.6923,11.5385,28.8462,21.1538,21.1538,57.6923,46.1538,19.2308,19.2308,92.3077,84.6154,3.8462,73.0769,55.7692,44.2308,28.8462,1.9231,5.7692,11.5385,15.3846,32.6923,9.6154,23.0769,65.3846,61.5385,38.4615,40.3846,19.2308,30.7692,9.6154,9.6154,21.1538,3.8462,50.0,13.4615,59.6154,71.1538,57.6923,48.0769,7.6923,11.5385,40.3846,40.3846,69.2308,11.5385,55.7692,15.3846,78.8462,73.0769,92.3077,96.1538],"confirmation":[50.2396,77.7813,25.869,76.586,81.9863,30.2752,77.987,80.6379,73.6085,77.728,90.9336,80.908,30.1263,88.011,84.3195,89.4705,54.5551,80.0965,30.2636,81.7297,29.3943,29.9995,75.6626,52.5907,51.4778,24.5082,79.3312,51.6141,74.836,24.8653,50.2253,26.3734,0.7685,48.3475,82.8656,4.9822,85.2328,56.0198,78.4241,74.426,75.5253,80.8498,85.0764,31.2592,85.8295,80.7916,53.0214,52.5863,79.7684,77.2289,85.3679,73.9493],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[11.2464,20.4287,14.1205,25.6296,28.0347,29.8136,22.4718,15.1077,38.9115,31.5743,15.3522,27.5069,38.9749,19.2361,19.2464,15.0478,33.4675,22.0972,18.8783,15.2193,0.6967,20.7671,15.6591,37.285,46.6108,2.7238,13.3636,19.7815,4.0623,35.8313,23.5132,36.618,7.9182,29.1881,26.9192,42.5729,23.0579,13.5892,11.7526,28.883,14.3194,29.4226,22.5583,38.0353,20.2725,25.8969,22.447,35.1869,25.8768,30.0834,24.2848,40.0904],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":19.1,"control":9.2,"force":9.0,"direction":37.6,"confirmation":73.9,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":40.1,"intensity":96.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+19.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+9.2","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+9.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+37.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"74/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"45.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"10.9%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"39%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its 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