{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SIRI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"09ddf59d-62b1-41b1-8c63-823263f871b8","symbol":"SIRI","name":"Sirius XM Holding Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Communication Services","industry":"Entertainment"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price has no clear direction","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.8,"averageExpectedMove":6.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-1.8,"medianReturn":-1.5,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":53.3,"averageReturn":-4.3,"medianReturn":1.0,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":75.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":20.0,"averageReturn":-10.5,"medianReturn":-2.5,"confidenceLow":7.0,"confidenceHigh":45.2,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-10.8,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.9% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 70.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 10 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.1 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.8% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-02-14","price":25.547174},{"date":"2025-06-27","price":21.525584},{"date":"2025-08-08","price":20.695475},{"date":"2026-02-13","price":21.077533}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[29.5358,30.3665,25.1978,22.6226,23.0287,22.5026,20.9797,23.0103,25.4839,24.3671,25.5208,24.3651,24.0574,24.449,25.1297,26.3978,22.4815,21.5211,21.5677,20.8497,19.4184,20.7658,20.4767,22.3883,23.9734,25.5472,23.3232,22.7955,23.7756,21.3631,22.117,21.4385,18.3853,18.8659,19.1486,20.4208,19.29,20.581,21.6878,20.8386,20.6859,20.9817,20.3138,20.7527,21.5256,23.1763,23.0999,22.4797,22.4988,20.2089,20.6955,22.251,22.652,22.8404,23.2462,22.4926,22.338,21.9322,22.4877,20.222,20.6568,20.6762,20.9563,21.2316,21.036,20.0678,20.7915,21.5445,21.2707,20.3123,20.146,20.058,21.3,19.9993,20.058,19.9016,21.2022,21.0775,20.8498,21.7408,22.028,21.7705,21.7705,22.6121,23.5526,23.4635,25.2257,26.3444,26.9484,26.8296,25.83,28.89,29.52,27.01,27.52,28.03,28.35,30.51,30.1373,30.3057,29.523,29.3447,29.632,28.46],"consensus":[0.0,18.6011,-52.1586,-53.1217,-20.373,-36.4322,-47.2246,0.0,24.0014,-17.8989,18.1517,-13.527,-19.5576,0.0,11.3167,35.6706,-48.3262,-30.2367,-30.2865,-38.6854,-53.1291,0.0,-29.7605,34.2462,44.9428,54.3327,-14.403,-8.2147,24.4024,-44.8157,8.1242,-28.3075,-65.434,-18.9615,-24.2487,10.3738,-25.8067,26.6324,34.233,-12.0256,0.0,13.9758,-27.079,8.2929,27.9878,53.575,27.459,9.4498,12.2078,-52.1215,0.0,34.4389,26.3337,31.6412,35.7784,-12.3787,0.0,-14.4186,11.1538,-59.2312,-17.7193,-24.7587,-10.5374,0.0,-9.5587,-37.7228,14.5036,25.7611,-8.4209,-33.5234,-19.594,-16.8792,34.7829,-42.19,0.0,-13.2659,31.2456,8.5526,0.0,43.439,28.8919,12.7777,0.0,42.21,53.5285,27.192,69.3826,59.5627,57.8027,39.4384,0.0,72.6506,47.7854,-16.1818,33.2069,26.9221,24.5796,69.6394,25.1265,31.5756,0.0,0.0,8.8977,-28.3907],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[31.9803,30.2387,32.9505,-18.9889,0.0,-12.519,15.5192,-58.289,-15.3566,-24.929,-5.4619,0.0,-14.8621,-37.3033,22.7761,28.1962,-13.6817,-41.0812,-18.963,-8.3733,38.6247,-43.973,0.0,-12.641,27.528,3.3335,0.0,41.6947,27.5386,10.4804,0.0,43.7823,54.4166,21.4633,68.881,47.2646,55.827,36.9377,0.0,70.8833,43.3391,-21.7353,23.7574,37.7461,36.2293,74.3898,18.3473,25.7107,0.0,0.0,10.6227,-23.3627],"force":[25.6058,24.8611,32.3858,-37.4789,0.0,-21.9899,19.9841,-82.7106,-3.2769,-15.19,-3.0991,0.0,-8.7226,-49.6304,37.2083,43.5062,-17.5268,-49.4871,-10.839,-6.3053,63.8435,-67.6906,0.0,-6.4793,65.7622,0.7882,0.0,54.4284,24.1031,2.6521,0.0,43.7005,53.7002,3.2623,78.513,70.8561,49.8872,9.7777,0.0,87.9439,30.7235,-69.6247,35.6179,17.2712,14.1655,76.0548,5.5376,11.2939,0.0,0.0,0.3829,-50.9838],"direction":[20.4004,38.087,41.4334,-13.1045,0.0,-11.1814,0.1426,-43.5371,-35.4168,-31.3988,-26.0785,0.0,-4.0948,-29.6967,11.1684,10.3031,-4.0956,-13.4831,-26.5686,-34.1531,9.6347,-21.9376,0.0,-18.8278,10.8398,21.1892,0.0,37.5828,33.8592,26.4245,0.0,39.3484,52.3909,50.8317,63.4341,65.5509,65.7145,63.4826,0.0,63.7467,65.054,-28.3386,42.2841,21.4452,18.7042,59.6278,54.777,52.7653,0.0,0.0,13.5552,-17.9991],"intensity":[34.6154,28.8462,9.6154,11.5385,36.5385,7.6923,7.6923,86.5385,53.8462,5.7692,30.7692,17.3077,7.6923,65.3846,19.2308,40.3846,50.0,36.5385,51.9231,3.8462,65.3846,71.1538,28.8462,3.8462,98.0769,65.3846,23.0769,36.5385,28.8462,9.6154,21.1538,38.4615,48.0769,15.3846,94.2308,100.0,75.0,38.4615,57.6923,100.0,100.0,90.3846,19.2308,15.3846,7.6923,86.5385,71.1538,1.9231,50.0,84.6154,80.7692,80.7692],"confirmation":[76.3186,77.9399,79.3888,30.0877,24.6043,72.8736,49.1356,87.6839,51.0987,75.6286,26.3615,25.2584,48.2858,80.4406,30.2563,76.7472,49.0991,79.0988,74.0129,50.542,79.9577,82.2508,48.4527,49.3811,79.1072,25.3665,24.4926,82.262,77.1201,49.5527,26.3396,81.5287,85.1208,53.3928,90.4883,87.5916,86.2857,79.7545,32.0225,91.7412,82.8391,35.4345,78.8437,76.156,75.3706,90.4077,53.7239,77.5755,6.4614,27.1268,47.9532,77.8502],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[5.3489,33.7463,31.595,18.3234,13.9426,29.5649,40.8703,19.1022,37.2064,29.2064,42.0561,38.1813,28.7871,14.8157,17.6807,5.6722,18.7389,31.2796,23.1885,39.2898,15.002,0.2369,2.3241,4.3798,21.8052,39.6827,37.5399,27.5376,26.1503,30.6301,40.2534,21.4524,21.8621,35.8161,15.3066,20.2175,21.0965,30.279,33.9985,13.1022,25.5729,15.0525,26.8113,42.9791,48.7132,14.6431,35.3914,31.2408,32.1362,31.8144,22.7093,29.9086],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-28.4,"control":-23.4,"force":-51.0,"direction":-18.0,"confirmation":77.9,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":29.9,"intensity":80.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-28.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-23.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-51.0","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-18.0","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"78/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.4%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"40.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"67%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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