{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ITW Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"0e3cd3af-341a-4ddf-90f9-0737625da3eb","symbol":"ITW","name":"Illinois Tool Works Inc.","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Specialty Industrial Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The completed evidence supports the upward price structure.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.4,"averageExpectedMove":5.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":0.1,"confidenceLow":28.0,"confidenceHigh":72.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-1.1,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":1.2,"medianReturn":2.1,"confidenceLow":41.7,"confidenceHigh":84.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned","tone":"positive","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned upward","use":"The advance retains underlying support while price structure and Market Dynamics remain intact.","confirm":"The advance remains supported. Reclassify it only if the broader Market Dynamics path weakens or price structure breaks.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains positive and has strengthened across the recent completed path. A slight weekly pause does not yet change the broader constructive reading.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":52.9,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Trend participation","title":"Let confirmation support the position, then manage extension","tone":"positive","approach":"This is most useful for holding or selectively adding to an established upward case. Risk should still tighten as price becomes extended; confirmation is support, not immunity from reversal.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 52.9% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.7% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.5% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-07-11","price":217.17691}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":249.337799}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[211.6133,215.9981,208.4677,215.9028,217.5233,223.1472,224.6822,227.8481,230.7262,226.6009,232.7408,244.6369,246.3638,251.5443,252.6955,249.3378,249.6256,239.8401,236.7701,234.7431,231.3649,241.4032,238.7971,242.3685,236.9632,238.411,243.9128,242.9476,241.5963,224.8979,223.7396,229.3379,204.5683,193.6405,198.7401,204.374,206.8024,209.425,217.4873,207.6766,209.7164,211.3678,205.2482,203.5969,206.1224,213.2638,217.1769,214.7312,217.666,212.3834,216.1986,217.5682,224.6118,221.2857,220.7965,219.8183,217.8617,217.9595,219.0533,208.9038,208.9038,209.6921,208.7067,209.1994,206.933,210.5789,212.6483,212.2541,216.8855,209.7906,210.3819,210.5904,216.9448,225.285,217.8384,216.9448,246.8306,252.5893,247.1284,243.4548,236.7032,232.1359,221.9092,224.59,224.1,232.7,230.5,231.6,218.0955,215.5133,213.3284,215.1161,211.4414,217.8969,219.6845,225.7428,233.39,239.3,236.2,244.8,248.0,247.3,256.0,250.1],"consensus":[9.4418,45.6214,-41.5399,50.1917,25.7988,64.0037,30.7759,61.9267,54.9033,0.0,70.1966,80.0146,46.861,68.4232,52.0354,12.9608,31.7005,-26.5547,-33.6238,-36.5157,-45.628,46.0531,-11.3761,40.5419,-12.9483,0.0,47.2278,0.0,0.0,-63.7898,-47.8431,0.0,-71.6728,-58.3404,-37.1057,-17.4603,-9.9112,0.0,24.3666,-37.9274,-8.6564,0.0,-40.1616,-26.8472,0.0,35.1729,36.8265,0.0,39.4721,-27.9996,27.2335,16.435,62.6006,0.0,18.0621,0.0,-15.1356,9.9852,12.5811,-63.6806,-33.5356,-32.328,-27.4611,0.0,-44.658,18.0745,21.6512,16.0885,50.9144,-41.6476,-12.5549,0.0,37.0184,62.3922,0.0,19.1043,68.3689,69.606,17.5075,21.1502,-13.3892,-15.8957,-52.2568,-9.9406,-20.6262,32.1536,8.0383,16.2875,-45.9424,-48.083,-47.4246,-10.7471,-55.821,18.1029,17.0426,17.5641,31.5944,64.6435,45.0718,69.0955,65.6318,22.4709,67.6868,1.1917],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[63.6923,0.0,11.6867,0.0,-9.8011,19.6132,18.091,-60.0725,-28.9961,-22.7933,-19.5605,0.0,-51.0407,20.4321,18.2519,19.7976,45.3984,-45.5686,-12.0002,0.0,48.8477,70.78,0.0,13.6248,72.7448,80.6922,5.6797,2.742,-18.4823,-14.3413,-59.4821,-3.1578,-13.4889,44.045,0.267,13.6662,-51.1758,-45.1993,-43.4616,-5.5329,-57.5691,23.3392,15.1266,8.2508,21.3124,69.646,43.3677,69.3891,66.4056,11.6832,67.0005,11.3924],"force":[78.3145,0.0,5.6322,0.0,-33.9648,12.1688,13.3741,-93.3564,-24.3257,-37.596,-19.1943,0.0,-51.2192,49.2405,39.5618,19.2233,75.7003,-73.2466,-8.9687,0.0,36.4383,52.4844,0.0,15.1187,57.9383,45.4357,20.791,12.9594,-43.248,-28.4895,-52.383,-6.4065,-9.4436,38.1553,5.1001,14.8211,-41.2147,-43.7214,-40.1427,-21.9873,-58.9585,53.6313,39.2179,12.4052,20.6783,64.7657,35.3874,77.3995,67.0812,7.2704,70.909,46.8942],"direction":[50.1289,0.0,34.2268,0.0,-7.7828,2.578,5.7177,-46.6071,-45.3021,-39.4621,-42.3953,0.0,-32.6769,6.8813,12.7428,9.6104,39.5143,-14.5956,-15.7504,0.0,23.9136,59.8832,0.0,28.2136,70.8184,74.2006,71.3632,66.5522,-13.7591,-8.6765,-43.909,-36.5868,-36.7708,14.2764,19.0184,20.3307,-43.3384,-54.4942,-57.1552,-52.7345,-51.582,13.2589,3.3927,31.8928,51.1426,58.839,53.9368,62.8286,63.7122,56.0434,66.1695,49.9206],"intensity":[63.4615,32.6923,5.7692,1.9231,7.6923,5.7692,3.8462,82.6923,73.0769,73.0769,80.7692,1.9231,13.4615,34.6154,15.3846,36.5385,46.1538,67.3077,63.4615,5.7692,67.3077,75.0,71.1538,53.8462,100.0,98.0769,46.1538,38.4615,59.6154,82.6923,90.3846,26.9231,25.0,80.7692,11.5385,30.7692,96.1538,80.7692,40.3846,7.6923,38.4615,59.6154,23.0769,82.6923,71.1538,55.7692,61.5385,94.2308,30.7692,94.2308,78.8462,48.0769],"confirmation":[88.4945,31.9829,50.8315,4.1767,50.8319,48.9984,49.2995,89.3372,78.5199,78.6508,76.656,4.3611,82.3933,53.4991,75.526,73.1873,85.1321,82.2305,71.9167,27.1428,79.648,87.5358,31.1476,74.0754,89.4935,89.3684,10.4356,8.7737,30.7189,73.4941,84.6159,27.5895,74.3684,78.2908,25.2678,73.2073,82.4777,83.2976,83.0143,8.5605,85.9317,32.2911,51.492,73.6052,77.9342,88.6134,82.1538,90.3592,89.0346,53.333,89.7684,42.2088],"persistence":[62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5],"assessmentRisk":[15.7332,47.6022,31.0486,24.9788,39.8017,40.6469,30.7091,17.6447,31.9612,32.2282,35.8448,6.7931,2.6186,4.863,31.6706,29.4599,24.2385,10.8022,19.9558,22.7073,17.5792,18.7761,47.5087,35.0438,15.6882,14.9859,41.0769,39.0826,32.4106,40.57,23.2358,42.7875,32.2428,13.2899,30.9325,22.8655,3.0338,25.6718,26.118,44.3836,13.9929,10.402,31.4714,39.3091,34.1565,17.6103,27.205,15.2938,16.4592,36.5528,16.1466,39.7373],"volumeParticipation":false,"latest":{"consensus":1.2,"control":11.4,"force":46.9,"direction":49.9,"confirmation":42.2,"persistence":87.5,"assessmentRisk":39.7,"intensity":48.1,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+1.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+11.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+46.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+49.9","detail":"Upward 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