{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"TORO Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"0e60c5a6-7b72-42ab-8b2b-790c0324f52b","symbol":"TORO","name":"Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":14,"completedEpisodes":13,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":8.1,"averageExpectedMove":6.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":14,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":1.0,"medianReturn":0.3,"confidenceLow":26.8,"confidenceHigh":73.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":13,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":69.2,"averageReturn":4.5,"medianReturn":2.1,"confidenceLow":42.4,"confidenceHigh":87.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":69.2,"averageReturn":8.3,"medianReturn":5.5,"confidenceLow":42.4,"confidenceHigh":87.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":2.4,"averageExpectedMove":2.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":-0.8,"medianReturn":-1.2,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":93.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":-0.6,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":93.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.0,"medianReturn":-9.9,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-11.0,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-10.4,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-10.0,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Countertrend conflict","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is positive while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the improvement as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"This is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":69.2,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":13},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price remains downward while Market Dynamics is positive","detail":"The positive Market Dynamics reading has not yet reversed the downward price structure."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 69.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.5% across 13 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.5% across 13 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-10-24","price":0.582735},{"date":"2025-11-14","price":0.589005}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-07-18","price":0.59907},{"date":"2025-10-03","price":0.601234},{"date":"2025-11-07","price":0.593755}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.4313,0.4313,0.4313,0.4272,0.4272,0.4272,0.4272,0.4272,0.4272,0.4272,0.4313,0.4453,0.4411,0.4411,0.4411,0.4623,0.4729,0.4729,0.4729,0.4792,0.4898,0.4983,0.5005,0.4941,0.5067,0.5067,0.5067,0.5067,0.5046,0.5242,0.5198,0.5198,0.498,0.4762,0.4631,0.4674,0.498,0.5225,0.536,0.545,0.554,0.554,0.5585,0.5585,0.5585,0.5653,0.572,0.5991,0.5991,0.5991,0.6059,0.6059,0.6012,0.6035,0.6105,0.6197,0.6059,0.6105,0.6012,0.6082,0.6012,0.5827,0.5874,0.5938,0.589,0.5866,0.5843,0.5866,0.5795,0.5866,0.5866,0.5866,0.5866,0.5866,0.589,0.589,0.587,0.5845,0.5821,0.5261,0.5261,0.5066,0.4944,0.492,0.492,0.5042,0.5163,0.5261,0.5115,0.535,0.5375,0.5375,0.5425,0.5425,0.54,0.5425,0.55,0.5313,0.5313,0.5313,0.5361,0.541,0.55,0.535],"consensus":[12.8096,16.5615,20.4911,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,13.1232,45.0866,20.0504,0.0,0.0,55.9865,47.1019,26.2948,24.6035,33.0983,43.4416,51.2553,38.0794,12.9401,57.3718,24.2267,18.0537,21.3341,0.0,48.7082,14.8616,19.6173,-33.8552,-50.2953,-52.3897,-16.9329,30.3683,50.0783,44.4648,42.5748,42.5353,30.6476,36.8579,22.4004,17.0262,29.7968,32.1443,63.0091,35.4474,32.3131,46.2837,26.0981,13.5466,21.8894,28.2659,40.3571,-10.5718,19.4944,-17.8479,0.0,-11.6425,-46.3249,0.0,0.0,-27.9001,-9.5737,-15.5657,-8.7936,-31.1891,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-11.6353,-10.1187,-15.3917,-71.1354,-39.1004,-67.8676,-64.5271,-36.7594,-40.8348,-9.3014,21.9319,26.9151,-30.2743,32.8025,16.208,10.9759,25.6729,0.0,0.0,15.2736,28.3933,-25.2317,-8.2659,0.0,9.2442,15.5622,33.6035,-25.6646],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[18.5698,23.4112,31.1602,42.4614,-17.5367,15.2887,-21.4507,0.0,-8.2319,-33.0893,0.0,0.0,-32.4558,-10.1129,-14.8398,-3.6419,-29.4792,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-14.0962,-9.9217,-11.2162,-61.806,-33.3575,-72.4087,-64.3505,-22.6292,-36.3573,-3.6591,17.1239,25.8424,-34.5877,31.1087,10.3675,6.6536,19.7252,0.0,0.0,14.7863,30.1518,-30.2968,-7.3436,0.0,13.1808,10.3021,32.1959,-25.1891],"force":[18.8518,6.5466,17.203,34.3554,-43.9546,18.9487,-33.0107,0.0,-27.9081,-76.4798,0.0,0.0,-24.963,-3.1558,-6.7845,-0.9888,-34.0271,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-16.8272,-8.2349,-15.4766,-93.5531,-10.369,-57.5013,-55.4035,-14.2172,-11.6874,-27.1138,75.2666,53.9584,-51.5901,44.2446,10.9988,4.0715,23.2057,0.0,0.0,10.0079,23.559,-33.4931,-4.2422,0.0,26.6766,18.2562,32.9987,-65.1127],"direction":[30.9477,31.1093,32.8601,42.239,-21.2329,24.6908,-2.8998,0.0,-3.922,-39.912,0.0,0.0,-24.7915,-13.5417,-22.6676,-21.6686,-31.1162,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.1143,-11.6895,-20.103,-65.785,-66.186,-70.0823,-71.2457,-69.0099,-66.7715,-41.7606,10.6694,8.8243,-10.1192,26.5652,26.6036,20.8475,34.2325,0.0,0.0,19.5916,29.8366,-13.542,-12.194,0.0,7.7064,19.6492,35.6441,-1.9693],"intensity":[36.5385,21.1538,38.4615,40.3846,65.3846,17.3077,44.2308,26.9231,44.2308,92.3077,75.0,21.1538,69.2308,48.0769,11.5385,19.2308,75.0,59.6154,50.0,51.9231,17.3077,1.9231,9.6154,21.1538,57.6923,75.0,25.0,100.0,98.0769,80.7692,71.1538,86.5385,61.5385,63.4615,65.3846,51.9231,75.0,90.3846,23.0769,7.6923,26.9231,82.6923,9.6154,57.6923,57.6923,84.6154,65.3846,78.8462,21.1538,67.3077,32.6923,80.7692],"confirmation":[29.9594,51.8472,76.6638,80.6993,31.4906,74.2857,51.4519,24.9045,49.6066,83.9447,5.3145,29.2674,76.7691,48.1931,50.0578,25.4719,78.0931,2.2764,25.1081,24.4274,0.707,1.1345,47.9935,0.8328,49.1774,71.1836,72.9916,91.5887,79.724,89.3325,88.3733,79.2913,80.2471,7.7369,33.6597,77.4533,78.2717,78.8713,73.1168,26.0344,76.2308,3.9956,26.9333,72.7345,76.9117,76.2487,25.2032,24.7189,50.4068,73.1421,78.7561,39.7264],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,62.5,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[7.1206,15.8732,13.5088,27.3563,28.9782,22.8207,28.5075,45.6611,23.7453,26.6994,44.3629,50.1046,30.5513,26.1024,9.7115,30.5508,26.6439,0.3755,14.6577,2.8639,40.1328,1.89,22.8883,26.4806,10.6892,23.844,41.0,14.4069,30.4177,16.0615,17.7354,30.5062,28.4685,2.9142,32.3161,34.7474,55.7751,29.9283,32.2157,21.4385,36.7243,27.0001,13.6915,17.8156,20.4876,26.4727,30.1889,37.1917,49.1365,32.5844,32.8646,35.0762],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-25.7,"control":-25.2,"force":-65.1,"direction":-2.0,"confirmation":39.7,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":35.1,"intensity":80.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-25.7","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-25.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-65.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM 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