{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GLE Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"190ea187-7442-4970-b1b7-c0fd9f000eb2","symbol":"GLE","name":"MJ Gleeson plc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Residential Construction"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":8.7,"averageExpectedMove":9.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":44.4,"averageReturn":-1.9,"medianReturn":-1.0,"confidenceLow":24.6,"confidenceHigh":66.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-4.4,"medianReturn":-4.9,"confidenceLow":29.0,"confidenceHigh":71.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-5.4,"medianReturn":-10.4,"confidenceLow":16.3,"confidenceHigh":56.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":19.7,"averageExpectedMove":19.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-3.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.7,"medianReturn":-18.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-25.4,"medianReturn":-25.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-19.7,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-19.7,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-17.5,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-18.7,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-20.9,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-26.2,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-21.9,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-23.8,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-22.5,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-22.2,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-24.0,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-23.0,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-26.0,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-26.0,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-26.0,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-23.0,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-25.4,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -4.4% across 18 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.5% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":270.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-10-25","price":607.754456}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-09-27","price":629.673218}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[600.6882,591.6929,567.7054,569.7043,591.6929,629.6732,621.6774,619.6785,635.6701,607.7545,593.7601,539.782,540.7816,515.7917,505.7957,505.7957,519.79,511.7932,499.7981,497.7989,464.8122,491.8013,479.8062,487.8029,489.8021,478.3068,484.8041,465.8118,465.8515,465.8515,484.8454,469.8502,463.8521,449.8566,460.8531,525.8323,511.8368,513.8362,513.8362,501.84,519.8343,377.8795,385.877,382.8779,392.8747,361.8846,372.8811,360.8849,373.8808,352.8875,351.8878,351.8878,349.8885,339.8916,331.8942,327.8955,379.8789,380.8785,381.8782,352.8875,358.8856,363.9561,368.9555,346.9582,374.9548,371.9552,391.9528,391.9528,394.9524,404.9512,414.95,421.9492,425.9487,402.9514,400.9517,385.9535,389.953,333.9598,349.9578,351.9576,320.0,300.0,268.0,263.0,265.0,282.0,273.5,236.0,248.5,252.5,240.5,246.0,243.5,248.5,231.0,236.5,251.0,249.5,245.5,270.0,271.5,272.0,276.0,275.0],"consensus":[0.0,0.0,-30.5554,-8.0023,25.3552,53.116,19.1245,20.5251,47.7109,-25.255,-26.1716,-55.5848,-22.8983,-49.4268,-46.9304,-29.3643,-10.9888,-33.7264,-36.8511,-31.1726,-65.6785,0.0,-37.2842,-8.6462,0.0,-24.905,0.0,-35.7234,-24.3181,-19.2047,21.076,-21.9959,-26.1287,-35.8445,0.0,62.8042,12.0035,31.1289,17.733,-17.1561,30.0141,-70.7296,-31.1761,-50.16,-24.1068,-65.8338,0.0,-47.0337,0.0,-59.1336,-37.0523,-29.9913,-34.578,-41.677,-39.3177,-35.6454,50.0377,16.2129,18.9822,-26.7699,0.0,0.0,13.3987,-36.7003,39.8496,0.0,41.0111,27.1331,30.8113,45.9967,42.7377,39.7416,38.4476,-14.4832,0.0,-35.367,0.0,-71.262,0.0,-21.7832,-71.0211,-65.2823,-79.0484,-44.0584,-32.7979,0.0,-35.4792,-74.6797,-10.221,-21.907,-46.792,0.0,-32.8961,-11.5322,-45.6462,-13.2002,16.7542,-9.9001,0.0,48.1303,14.4442,19.1306,28.204,9.8477],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-37.6353,-49.1588,-42.6256,-35.4455,43.6928,7.1169,9.9318,-44.2062,0.0,0.0,22.7289,-45.2853,37.9979,0.0,36.5614,21.0455,30.0761,45.6889,43.4973,36.3909,37.2278,-17.6311,0.0,-35.2329,0.0,-68.0294,0.0,-16.0262,-69.3618,-62.1724,-81.2854,-33.9983,-23.6841,0.0,-38.8244,-77.2057,-4.0946,-12.7911,-44.9864,0.0,-41.3588,-11.2804,-59.4248,-10.2708,22.6721,-15.5853,0.0,38.0942,3.9245,11.2714,21.1053,4.897],"force":[-17.5336,-31.9075,-26.7764,-22.1809,90.3386,7.3189,10.2893,-39.3476,0.0,0.0,17.6575,-49.459,62.3652,0.0,47.9369,11.5177,18.9709,41.2169,30.9914,26.6906,19.5384,-47.8985,0.0,-51.1051,0.0,-97.9857,0.0,-0.2032,-90.1601,-78.931,-90.9085,-25.8247,-0.6269,0.0,-29.758,-90.8383,-36.2531,-3.8936,-40.8401,0.0,-18.9233,-8.0493,-34.535,-8.926,33.7738,-5.6117,0.0,76.9781,1.1664,6.8576,18.9522,6.953],"direction":[-43.2584,-40.1046,-44.4952,-45.4914,28.5027,32.961,35.5346,-2.1414,0.0,0.0,0.3064,-17.7756,25.8833,0.0,41.1494,45.2442,40.1091,49.7624,50.2598,52.8931,53.3483,-12.9825,0.0,-24.2787,0.0,-55.8679,0.0,-44.0672,-59.2466,-59.0875,-68.0204,-68.5798,-66.193,0.0,-35.7427,-60.251,-50.4183,-50.7541,-53.107,0.0,-33.205,-25.8067,-37.8359,-32.3525,2.1658,-6.4657,0.0,38.9946,35.9511,36.8791,42.9254,27.5061],"intensity":[3.8462,25.0,38.4615,13.4615,90.3846,88.4615,1.9231,75.0,55.7692,15.3846,19.2308,61.5385,76.9231,44.2308,75.0,57.6923,9.6154,30.7692,50.0,48.0769,44.2308,76.9231,53.8462,50.0,44.2308,92.3077,86.5385,26.9231,80.7692,65.3846,82.6923,78.8462,9.6154,51.9231,26.9231,84.6154,75.0,19.2308,36.5385,21.1538,30.7692,11.5385,61.5385,13.4615,50.0,21.1538,36.5385,84.6154,82.6923,25.0,11.5385,5.7692],"confirmation":[78.4989,80.9249,80.149,78.9992,85.337,27.7223,73.9473,54.4742,24.8238,24.2656,49.6739,80.0021,81.4663,25.2907,81.4024,76.2995,77.51,82.578,81.3065,80.3706,79.7455,31.0413,24.3836,79.7991,25.6294,91.6675,11.997,51.765,91.3353,89.3537,93.6229,81.6963,54.9871,33.7076,79.128,92.3515,9.6817,52.5268,82.8196,5.8335,77.972,27.4812,82.0582,28.1653,51.5852,25.6174,24.1395,84.4338,27.0445,51.2009,76.8515,26.8647],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[9.6022,4.7677,26.4721,30.3801,20.7303,40.5624,40.2356,57.0928,38.2187,36.3876,38.641,2.5987,13.7182,16.1977,20.4175,35.4056,23.1413,26.0142,24.6278,28.5522,30.3859,0.0937,36.8366,31.6527,47.3104,14.3108,49.292,36.765,14.406,14.1559,10.4451,27.96,33.2825,34.1625,31.1696,5.4835,26.534,32.5596,24.1812,29.1977,2.0295,6.7029,4.4337,23.4342,15.5802,8.4295,39.1821,24.7793,40.7633,39.247,35.649,19.3654],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":9.8,"control":4.9,"force":7.0,"direction":27.5,"confirmation":26.9,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":19.4,"intensity":5.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+9.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+4.9","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+7.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+27.5","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"27/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"47.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.3%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"28.7","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"38%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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