{"ticker": {"uuid": "1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60", "symbol": "ASTL", "name": "Algoma Steel Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "asset_type": "equity"}, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "summary": "ASTL closed the latest completed week at 5.68 CAD. The 4-week return is 10.7% and the 12-week return is -20.9%. The trend backdrop is inactive, with activity pressure at -0.54.", "description": "Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products consisting of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, armored products for military applications, diameter pipelines, and wind energy generation equipment. It also provides by-products, such as furnace and buckwheat coke, braize coke, and flue dust; high sulpur beach and kish iron, BOF pit grissly and scrap, BOF and pellet fines, and mill roll scale; light oil and coal tar; granulated and air cooled slag; and machine shop turnings, used mill rolls, recycled oil, non-ferrous metal, and lime fines. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Sainte Marie, Canada.", "setup_signature": "Risk-first tape", "composite_score": "36", "kpis": [{"label": "Latest Close", "value": "5.68 CAD", "hint": "2026-08-07"}, {"label": "1W Return", "value": "5.4%", "tone": "positive", "hint": "latest completed week"}, {"label": "4W Return", "value": "10.7%", "tone": "positive", "hint": "short-term follow-through"}, {"label": "12W Return", "value": "-20.9%", "tone": "negative", "hint": "quarterly tape"}, {"label": "Trend Breadth", "value": "25.0%", "hint": "13 of 52 weeks active"}, {"label": "Volume Ratio", "value": "1.7x", "hint": "vs 13-week average"}], "classification": {"exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "sector": "Basic Materials", "industry": "Steel", "currency": "CAD", "market_cap": "819.9M"}, "price": {"trend_line": "6.15 CAD", "fair_value": "9.11 CAD", "vs_trend": "-7.6%", "vs_fair_value": "-37.6%", "high_52": "7.95 CAD", "low_52": "4.20 CAD", "drawdown": "-28.6%", 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"average_gain": "7.9%", "average_loss": "-7.7%", "distribution_scale": "21%", "return_callouts": [{"label": "Weeks higher", "value": "14 of 26", "detail": "11 weeks finished lower.", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Best week", "value": "+19.1%", "detail": "Week of 29 May.", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Worst week", "value": "-20.6%", "detail": "Week of 13 Mar.", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Latest week", "value": "+5.4%", "detail": "Week of 7 Aug.", "tone": "positive"}], "buckets": [{"label": "Strong gains", "count": 10, "share": 38.46153846153847, "share_label": "38.5%", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Modest gains", "count": 4, "share": 15.384615384615385, "share_label": "15.4%", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Flat weeks", "count": 1, "share": 3.8461538461538463, "share_label": "3.8%", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Modest losses", "count": 0, "share": 0.0, "share_label": "0.0%", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Sharp losses", "count": 11, "share": 42.30769230769231, "share_label": "42.3%", "tone": "negative"}], "insights": [{"label": "Recent vol", "value": "9.4%", "detail": "13-week weekly-return volatility.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Base vol", "value": "9.2%", "detail": "52-week weekly-return volatility.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Up/down split", "value": "26/25", "detail": "Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Average skew", "value": "7.9% / -7.7%", "detail": "Average positive week versus average negative week.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, "signals": [{"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Inactive", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Activity pressure", "value": "No fresh buy", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Price vs Trend", "value": "-7.6%", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "1.7x", "tone": "positive"}], "opportunities": ["Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention."], "risks": ["The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.", "Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.", "Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.", "Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.", "The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high."], "watch_points": ["Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.", "Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.", "A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move."], "recent_rows": [{"week": "2026-08-07", "close": "5.68 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.15 CAD", "fair_value": "9.11 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.54", "relative_leadership": "-16.00", "volume": "3.2M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-31", "close": "5.39 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.15 CAD", "fair_value": "9.13 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.65", "relative_leadership": "-18.26", "volume": "3.6M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-24", "close": "6.09 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.15 CAD", "fair_value": "9.15 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.80", "relative_leadership": "-9.04", "volume": "3.1M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-17", "close": "5.36 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.14 CAD", "fair_value": "9.17 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.77", "relative_leadership": "-20.81", "volume": "2.0M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-10", "close": "5.13 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.16 CAD", "fair_value": "9.20 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.43", "relative_leadership": "-25.79", "volume": "2.4M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-03", "close": "5.51 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.20 CAD", "fair_value": "9.22 CAD", "activity_pressure": "-0.05", "relative_leadership": "-21.76", "volume": "214.4K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-26", "close": "5.94 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.21 CAD", "fair_value": "9.24 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.36", "relative_leadership": "-16.57", "volume": "567.7K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-19", "close": "6.29 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.21 CAD", "fair_value": "9.26 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.64", "relative_leadership": "-13.04", "volume": "211.0K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-12", "close": "6.99 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.15 CAD", "fair_value": "9.28 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.61", "relative_leadership": "-4.83", "volume": "360.0K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-05", "close": "6.94 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.09 CAD", "fair_value": "9.30 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.70", "relative_leadership": "-5.06", "volume": "596.5K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-29", "close": "7.78 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "6.04 CAD", "fair_value": "9.31 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.78", "relative_leadership": "4.38", "volume": "2.3M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-22", "close": "6.53 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "5.97 CAD", "fair_value": "9.32 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.60", "relative_leadership": "-12.06", "volume": "2.0M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-15", "close": "7.18 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "5.96 CAD", "fair_value": "9.34 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.53", "relative_leadership": "-2.33", "volume": "3.4M", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-08", "close": "7.04 CAD", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "5.90 CAD", "fair_value": "9.36 CAD", "activity_pressure": "0.37", "relative_leadership": "-5.73", "volume": "2.6M", "trend_backdrop": null}], "intelligence": {"rating": "Caution", "rating_tone": "negative", "overall_score": "37", "primary_driver": {"label": "Patient Capital", "score": 48.0, "score_label": "48", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "detail": "No recent buy signal", "metric": "Quiet", "url": "/patient-capital/", "available": true, "weight": 1}, "primary_conflict": {"label": "Factors", "score": 22.028985507246375, "score_label": "22", "tone": "negative", "summary": "O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.", "detail": "Buyback Yield rank 53; Small Cap Core rank 28", "metric": "22/100", "url": "/factors/ticker/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.2}, "options_tone": "neutral", "options": null, "evidence": [{"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 31.291078553870328, "score_label": "31", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 31/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "31/100", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}, {"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 41.43749999999999, "score_label": "41", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 6/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 1/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.46; No reversal markers", "metric": "41/100", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, {"label": "Factors", "score": 22.028985507246375, "score_label": "22", "tone": "negative", "summary": "O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.", "detail": "Buyback Yield rank 53; Small Cap Core rank 28", "metric": "22/100", "url": "/factors/ticker/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.2}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "score": 48.0, "score_label": "48", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "detail": "No recent buy signal", "metric": "Quiet", "url": "/patient-capital/", "available": true, "weight": 1}, {"label": "Sentiment", "score": 47.0, "score_label": "47", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.", "detail": "Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates", "metric": "47/100", "url": "/sentiment/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 0.95}, {"label": "Insiders", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/insider-activity/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, {"label": "Earnings", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/earnings-calendar/", "available": false, "weight": 0}], "positives": [], "negatives": [{"label": "Factors", "score": 22.028985507246375, "score_label": "22", "tone": "negative", "summary": "O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.", "detail": "Buyback Yield rank 53; Small Cap Core rank 28", "metric": "22/100", "url": "/factors/ticker/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.2}, {"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 31.291078553870328, "score_label": "31", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 31/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "31/100", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}], "conclusion": ["The strongest supporting evidence is patient capital: Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "The main constraint is factors: O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.", "The combined read is defensive, so risk control and evidence of stabilization matter more than headline upside."], "weekly_changes": [{"label": "Price follow-through", "value": "5.4%", "detail": "Latest completed week; four-week move 10.7%.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Indicator stack", "value": "14/38", "detail": "Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.", "tone": "negative", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Active", "detail": "The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "value": "Quiet", "detail": "Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/patient-capital/"}, {"label": "News sentiment", "value": "47/100", "detail": "27 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/sentiment/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}]}, "investor_view": {"stance": "Mixed setup", "stance_tone": "neutral", "setup_score": "36", "bottom_line": "The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 39.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.4%, after a 10.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 47/100.", "price_summary": "The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 39.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.4%, after a 10.7% four-week move.", "volume_summary": "Latest weekly volume is 1.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.", "momentum_summary": "Performance is 10.7% over four weeks, -20.9% over 12 weeks, and -9.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.", "fundamentals": {"available": true, "summary": "The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.", "week_end": "2026-08-09", "financials_period_end": "2026-03-31", "coverage": "79%", "confidence": "74%", "url": "", "rank_scores": [{"label": "Overall factor strength", "value": "19/100", "width": 19.0, "tone": "negative", "detail": "Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best."}, {"label": "Value", "value": "63/100", "width": 63.0, "tone": "neutral", "detail": "Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 38; rank 1 is best."}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "2/100", "width": 2.0, "tone": "negative", "detail": "Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best."}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "11/100", "width": 11.0, "tone": "negative", "detail": "Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best."}, {"label": "Growth", "value": "12/100", "width": 12.0, "tone": "negative", "detail": "Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best."}], "groups": [{"title": "Valuation", "summary": "How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.", "metrics": [{"label": "P/E", "value": "-", "detail": "Price divided by trailing earnings.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Price / sales", "value": "0.3x", "detail": "Market value relative to trailing revenue.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "EV / EBITDA", "value": "-", "detail": "Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Free-cash-flow yield", "value": "-28.6%", "detail": "Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, {"title": "Business quality", "summary": "Margins and the return generated on invested capital.", "metrics": [{"label": "Gross margin", "value": "-36.6%", "detail": "Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Operating margin", "value": "-42.4%", "detail": "Operating profit retained from revenue.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Free-cash-flow margin", "value": "-21.0%", "detail": "Free cash flow generated from revenue.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Return on invested capital", "value": "-53.0%", "detail": "Operating return generated on invested capital.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, {"title": "Growth and financial strength", "summary": "Recent business growth and accounting strength.", "metrics": [{"label": "Revenue growth", "value": "-25.4%", "detail": "Latest one-year revenue growth.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "EPS growth", "value": "-", "detail": "Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Free-cash-flow growth", "value": "-", "detail": "Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Piotroski F-score", "value": "1/9", "detail": "Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, {"title": "Shareholder return and balance sheet", "summary": "Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.", "metrics": [{"label": "Dividend yield", "value": "2.5%", "detail": "Cash dividends relative to market value.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Buyback yield", "value": "0.0%", "detail": "Net share repurchases relative to market value.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Shareholder yield", "value": "2.5%", "detail": "Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Net debt / EBITDA", "value": "-0.8x", "detail": "Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.", "tone": "neutral"}]}]}, "weekly_change": [{"label": "Price follow-through", "value": "5.4%", "detail": "Latest completed week; four-week move 10.7%.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Indicator stack", "value": "14/38", "detail": "Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.", "tone": "negative", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Active", "detail": "The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "value": "Quiet", "detail": "Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/patient-capital/"}, {"label": "News sentiment", "value": "47/100", "detail": "27 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/sentiment/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/"}], "strengths": ["Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention."], "risks": ["The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.", "Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.", "Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.", "Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup."], "watch_points": ["Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.", "Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.", "A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move."], "evidence": {"weekly_tape": {"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 31.291078553870328, "score_label": "31", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 31/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "31/100", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}, "indicator_analysis": {"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 41.43749999999999, "score_label": "41", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 6/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 1/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.46; No reversal markers", "metric": "41/100", "url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, "factors": {"label": "Factors", "score": 22.028985507246375, "score_label": "22", "tone": "negative", "summary": "O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.", "detail": "Buyback Yield rank 53; Small Cap Core rank 28", "metric": "22/100", "url": "/factors/ticker/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 1.2}, "patient_capital": {"label": "Patient Capital", "score": 48.0, "score_label": "48", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "detail": "No recent buy signal", "metric": "Quiet", "url": "/patient-capital/", "available": true, "weight": 1}, "sentiment": {"label": "Sentiment", "score": 47.0, "score_label": "47", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.", "detail": "Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates", "metric": "47/100", "url": "/sentiment/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "available": true, "weight": 0.95}, "insiders": {"label": "Insiders", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/insider-activity/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, "earnings": {"label": "Earnings", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/earnings-calendar/", "available": false, "weight": 0}}, "section_nav": [{"id": "overview", "label": "Overview"}, {"id": "price-action", "label": "Price"}, {"id": "volume-demand", "label": "Volume"}, {"id": "momentum", "label": "Momentum"}, {"id": "fundamentals", "label": "Fundamentals"}, {"id": "ownership-flow", "label": "Ownership & Flow"}, {"id": "catalysts-risk", "label": "Catalysts & Risk"}, {"id": "peer-context", "label": "Peer Context"}, {"id": "weekly-data", "label": "Weekly Data"}]}, "chart_url": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/", "api_path": "/terminal/1b60df28-e9ef-456e-a525-19110dd3bd60/report/api/"}