{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CTPNV Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"1e89d793-19d6-4401-92b4-c6728b706237","symbol":"CTPNV","name":"CTP N.V.","exchange":"AMS","country":"NL","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Real Estate - Development"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains downward.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned downward","stateTone":"negative","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.8,"averageExpectedMove":9.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":20,"expectedCount":14,"expectedPercent":70.0,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":2.2,"confidenceLow":48.1,"confidenceHigh":85.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":68.4,"averageReturn":4.1,"medianReturn":5.5,"confidenceLow":46.0,"confidenceHigh":84.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":72.2,"averageReturn":8.0,"medianReturn":8.7,"confidenceLow":49.1,"confidenceHigh":87.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":20},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":20},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":6.3,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":6.8,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":7.9,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":22.7,"averageExpectedMove":18.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-5.8,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":93.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.4,"medianReturn":-13.2,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-15.8,"medianReturn":-19.1,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.5,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-9.4,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.8,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-15.5,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-15.8,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Countertrend conflict","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"This is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price remains downward while Market Dynamics is positive","detail":"The positive Market Dynamics reading has not yet reversed the downward price structure."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.0% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-08-15","price":17.651466},{"date":"2025-08-29","price":17.690008},{"date":"2025-10-31","price":17.722424}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-10-03","price":18.820272},{"date":"2026-01-09","price":18.016489},{"date":"2026-02-06","price":18.153721}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[15.9195,15.7893,15.5149,15.7798,15.4203,15.5149,15.7041,15.8366,15.9312,14.9851,14.5689,13.9067,13.9634,14.2851,14.3797,14.6067,14.4932,14.1148,14.1148,14.1148,13.7553,14.7013,14.7203,15.1744,15.4582,15.25,15.4014,15.7041,15.1744,15.7231,15.7041,15.5528,15.5338,14.2283,15.4392,15.7437,16.2062,15.6474,15.7823,15.5896,16.1484,16.052,15.8208,16.5723,16.9577,17.189,16.8421,17.4395,17.6707,17.5937,18.1718,17.6515,18.2488,17.69,17.5937,17.5166,17.1539,17.8989,18.8203,18.6046,18.2713,18.4282,17.7224,17.6636,17.5264,17.3499,17.9969,17.5656,17.1147,17.1539,17.3107,17.2911,18.0165,18.8203,17.9577,17.9577,18.1537,18.2713,18.8007,17.6244,16.7618,15.3895,14.7622,13.9192,15.1346,15.7424,16.3305,15.5267,15.762,15.762,15.5267,15.92,16.24,15.66,15.8,15.46,15.98,16.92,16.44,16.16,16.32,15.56,14.68,14.52],"consensus":[60.5373,10.8942,0.0,34.0024,-30.2837,0.0,23.543,25.7459,25.0103,-58.6728,-56.2354,-64.0199,-35.0396,0.0,-10.1587,15.419,-9.5207,-45.5903,-14.3965,-20.0581,-50.8929,49.5988,12.5478,51.7002,50.1331,0.0,35.4452,48.1387,-17.7697,54.0556,18.7263,0.0,8.1028,-55.6348,31.3053,30.7958,50.8855,0.0,20.7926,-8.7609,30.2357,8.7485,-10.8926,60.6707,51.9087,34.4541,9.2109,56.95,38.134,13.061,54.345,0.0,58.0776,-12.7959,0.0,0.0,-35.6079,44.7422,69.8399,17.7543,0.0,28.7357,-44.6216,-16.8439,-24.2509,-33.0196,34.2352,-26.0239,-45.5132,-24.3619,-10.1356,-24.5415,45.5404,66.418,-15.4133,12.6358,25.8727,0.0,48.9326,-45.9797,-57.2784,-77.8938,-72.7189,-74.6432,0.0,10.7523,32.0956,-29.834,8.9117,-16.0521,-34.8586,15.4875,18.8299,-11.0495,0.0,-15.6364,14.8025,47.62,0.0,0.0,21.1921,-51.1236,-67.2297,-37.3707],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[66.2739,-20.6996,0.0,0.0,-32.8979,47.7215,70.9494,12.4003,0.0,27.7551,-41.8538,-8.0904,-19.6083,-28.327,38.1854,-26.1074,-47.4847,-27.5306,-0.5739,-28.4452,39.2714,64.1031,-25.6151,7.7231,30.1773,0.0,43.3246,-42.2638,-50.6337,-80.0198,-75.2827,-72.045,0.0,10.9626,27.882,-43.533,7.9059,-21.229,-38.8231,14.1615,15.2613,-10.2819,0.0,-10.6598,25.1731,50.0408,0.0,0.0,19.5809,-46.6127,-67.1007,-31.9894],"force":[57.9186,-49.3504,0.0,0.0,-51.3027,68.5006,91.0726,16.9426,0.0,22.6645,-73.7914,-15.1089,-21.3806,-30.7789,57.9697,-40.2649,-52.0727,-9.9995,-5.0398,-16.8284,73.2676,89.9154,-50.2332,9.4783,31.7032,0.0,63.2964,-85.4929,-76.0025,-92.5333,-74.3094,-81.5744,0.0,52.9858,65.8778,-39.5209,30.6179,-10.7426,-30.3724,33.5966,25.7891,-8.6281,0.0,-9.2143,20.6909,40.6512,0.0,0.0,25.0131,-80.4912,-88.1668,-22.1772],"direction":[48.824,-22.3471,0.0,0.0,-27.4943,24.3671,53.4057,48.6566,0.0,34.1929,-26.9492,-28.0873,-31.6068,-39.9831,12.7674,-15.7563,-38.5747,-30.9994,-33.2145,-25.5894,32.8998,52.2797,-21.1174,20.5057,16.7886,0.0,45.082,-22.0027,-51.4981,-65.0073,-68.653,-72.6616,0.0,19.6547,12.781,-7.2587,5.4431,-13.9282,-33.5321,4.0678,17.9374,-13.6563,0.0,-25.9112,1.2557,49.8311,0.0,0.0,20.304,-35.3019,-52.4222,-54.3732],"intensity":[73.0769,63.4615,78.8462,13.4615,42.3077,82.6923,88.4615,50.0,25.0,40.3846,76.9231,75.0,21.1538,7.6923,73.0769,44.2308,44.2308,1.9231,7.6923,11.5385,94.2308,88.4615,90.3846,71.1538,9.6154,65.3846,48.0769,96.1538,98.0769,96.1538,63.4615,94.2308,92.3077,88.4615,78.8462,80.7692,32.6923,36.5385,32.6923,40.3846,50.0,84.6154,15.3846,40.3846,48.0769,88.4615,36.5385,28.8462,9.6154,73.0769,84.6154,88.4615],"confirmation":[86.4551,32.5223,24.9631,1.6281,79.9141,82.9962,90.979,30.9866,32.1514,77.0253,83.2101,73.4706,75.7435,78.5695,79.6184,76.7604,82.7341,75.3098,26.8083,75.5587,83.5135,90.0051,33.0097,49.3554,76.3914,24.3633,84.1816,83.9743,87.001,93.3398,91.2795,92.1366,38.9143,31.5843,79.3644,54.9667,27.3565,72.896,78.9576,50.8614,74.292,71.4737,23.8572,72.8838,50.3594,82.9891,29.2314,28.5539,74.9225,85.3233,90.1536,44.64],"persistence":[87.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[15.6425,17.3006,45.169,16.9053,31.749,0.2002,14.3963,40.0172,49.8596,25.7936,26.2539,39.4336,33.7381,32.7391,9.8315,2.7465,11.7425,7.3169,41.0175,22.0171,26.2089,16.7363,50.6229,38.3294,1.3825,44.1201,22.7595,3.7922,20.4614,11.0316,13.6397,12.6757,50.5707,15.3884,32.1918,63.3532,28.7788,9.2862,21.4651,15.948,19.55,1.6711,20.1694,25.2463,30.2147,25.6149,42.2408,46.794,22.938,24.1401,16.2683,31.1325],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-37.4,"control":-32.0,"force":-22.2,"direction":-54.4,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":31.1,"intensity":88.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-37.4","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-32.0","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-22.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-54.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"38.1","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.5%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"12.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"16%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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