{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CYD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"1fb1c03e-183a-4397-99c4-d9a7e64d4b86","symbol":"CYD","name":"China Yuchai International Limited","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Auto Manufacturers"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":13},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":13},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":13},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":13},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":13},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":13},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":13},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":13},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":13},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":12},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":12},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":12},{"week":14,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":12},{"week":15,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":12},{"week":16,"averageReturn":13.0,"sample":12},{"week":17,"averageReturn":14.5,"sample":12},{"week":18,"averageReturn":21.0,"sample":12},{"week":19,"averageReturn":23.7,"sample":12},{"week":20,"averageReturn":26.3,"sample":12},{"week":21,"averageReturn":24.4,"sample":12},{"week":22,"averageReturn":23.4,"sample":12},{"week":23,"averageReturn":26.8,"sample":12},{"week":24,"averageReturn":27.5,"sample":11},{"week":25,"averageReturn":32.0,"sample":11},{"week":26,"averageReturn":33.8,"sample":11}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":25.8,"averageExpectedMove":25.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-16.7,"medianReturn":-16.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-21.1,"medianReturn":-21.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-16.7,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-23.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-25.8,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-21.0,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-23.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-21.4,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-17.5,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-21.1,"sample":1},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":44.4,"averageReturn":18.9,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 44.4% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 18.9% across 18 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.0% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-02-21","price":19.525727}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":57.35}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[10.2217,10.7392,11.4128,11.6861,12.2817,11.7252,12.0864,11.8912,11.7838,11.8814,11.0808,10.1241,8.8256,9.304,9.0697,9.0014,9.0892,8.5816,10.8075,9.4895,9.8898,10.1339,11.7154,10.6903,10.9246,11.5397,19.5257,18.6666,19.184,21.7028,18.6764,16.2942,13.9804,14.9665,13.9609,15.1227,16.2161,16.8312,16.8409,16.7043,16.7238,17.5048,20.3556,20.6973,22.84,24.5,24.63,25.1,23.43,22.35,28.75,28.87,31.27,33.39,34.45,38.92,39.93,41.4,38.95,35.44,34.95,37.05,37.08,39.87,36.62,34.49,35.76,34.75,35.21,36.27,35.92,37.02,41.61,42.91,44.32,45.38,50.0,53.61,55.95,50.28,41.3,41.57,39.81,37.3,39.41,42.78,43.26,42.24,40.0,46.24,50.0,57.35,56.72,56.76,49.0578,47.7536,43.949,42.5468,45.2924,43.9,45.07,47.16,47.32,45.24],"consensus":[12.3737,64.9818,77.7807,59.0085,68.1985,0.0,40.2194,15.0624,0.0,28.9883,-37.1281,-59.3992,-77.6209,-10.1577,-48.2587,-47.5841,-13.7789,-59.6463,51.2679,-35.4781,15.9752,21.1342,64.965,0.0,33.566,44.3534,76.1465,16.0756,46.1805,71.5489,-14.5865,-30.5561,-47.3322,0.0,-35.2342,14.8905,30.3465,26.5345,13.8389,0.0,0.0,22.6846,61.9436,29.5091,64.3537,65.082,46.6686,47.4577,0.0,-8.2537,72.4463,34.8105,63.0816,67.2102,62.2879,83.476,53.7817,64.2366,9.2436,-25.2257,-11.517,30.9068,0.0,52.1887,-12.6472,-25.0549,9.3642,-29.2246,0.0,15.2404,0.0,27.6182,65.0561,38.9179,49.2293,39.0666,71.0748,67.2532,63.3361,0.0,-56.9521,-19.31,-36.0652,-54.0118,0.0,20.2164,0.0,0.0,-28.6604,49.9038,51.7915,71.1533,26.9695,32.9857,-30.7539,-25.9446,-51.1445,-36.6903,0.0,-21.8787,0.0,15.6839,0.0,-20.4965],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[61.2452,68.3852,68.4913,86.318,49.5841,65.1242,4.8556,-23.2941,-6.8625,40.9441,0.0,57.0562,-21.3358,-22.8581,18.3357,-27.3672,0.0,16.3735,0.0,33.4397,66.732,33.9764,51.1928,32.9713,75.0687,70.5311,67.5503,0.0,-49.8359,-10.8219,-28.6325,-54.547,0.0,25.6425,0.0,0.0,-37.7424,49.8673,51.8354,69.1738,18.726,27.0799,-32.0848,-22.9099,-47.485,-31.6254,0.0,-17.5101,0.0,12.2208,0.0,-29.1923],"force":[62.4335,64.5953,45.4379,95.1263,35.6827,52.8827,42.1157,-77.0679,-32.4261,47.5617,0.0,53.9904,-38.8444,-34.4631,18.0844,-34.9162,0.0,19.1252,0.0,30.6333,85.2687,28.986,38.4269,25.5684,76.9261,63.5084,49.4472,0.0,-93.8594,-5.8058,-33.6034,-53.0634,0.0,38.1388,0.0,0.0,-30.5931,79.2654,59.7591,90.4303,4.0244,10.0413,-74.0111,-36.3088,-71.2923,-32.573,0.0,-16.7104,0.0,22.474,0.0,-28.0081],"direction":[65.6432,67.7352,67.2341,71.9062,71.5067,71.3321,62.0422,-9.5969,-1.9014,7.5392,0.0,45.3389,-15.9948,-20.8455,7.1177,-27.2818,0.0,11.1705,0.0,18.8114,48.7033,51.6597,54.7013,55.6742,62.3307,66.1818,68.4404,0.0,-38.7226,-38.6566,-46.3181,-54.0776,0.0,1.2135,0.0,0.0,-16.9005,28.9731,46.0502,59.6462,58.5292,56.1241,-1.6652,-22.01,-40.9353,-45.4197,0.0,-30.563,0.0,14.7916,0.0,-5.1929],"intensity":[78.8462,73.0769,57.6923,92.3077,90.3846,57.6923,76.9231,84.6154,53.8462,96.1538,98.0769,73.0769,76.9231,82.6923,32.6923,21.1538,9.6154,40.3846,15.3846,30.7692,88.4615,86.5385,38.4615,67.3077,86.5385,78.8462,80.7692,100.0,98.0769,80.7692,59.6154,59.6154,48.0769,78.8462,55.7692,42.3077,48.0769,92.3077,94.2308,94.2308,86.5385,13.4615,94.2308,84.6154,57.6923,48.0769,46.1538,25.0,25.0,28.8462,23.0769,36.5385],"confirmation":[88.1943,89.4097,87.3241,95.0241,84.7225,88.1962,11.6281,34.3956,27.0603,55.5781,3.2517,84.6811,30.792,76.3378,49.9774,77.5536,24.2696,72.978,24.0422,76.841,89.4084,80.2264,83.3942,80.1828,90.8614,89.3569,87.78,36.1204,87.4579,51.2303,79.5791,85.2467,6.7775,52.2661,24.3304,2.3275,77.0918,84.8646,84.8154,91.3867,54.0032,77.9462,56.8278,76.6644,85.036,79.6926,5.9927,74.9102,24.8578,73.2785,24.3313,51.9886],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[18.4233,16.3936,18.5572,8.255,23.0846,17.8374,43.3713,30.8476,41.9959,62.2073,31.2523,22.5355,36.9635,27.0236,30.2123,34.1284,28.4498,28.1721,6.1235,28.2012,17.3163,30.4228,25.3681,30.4489,14.4228,16.372,18.3319,50.1269,20.6261,40.1962,31.9495,22.8837,21.5451,5.4954,34.5212,44.2635,22.1501,10.383,20.9381,14.32,36.4876,33.407,3.418,36.3539,24.2753,31.5813,37.6855,26.743,13.9588,33.6461,23.3511,29.0256],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-20.5,"control":-29.2,"force":-28.0,"direction":-5.2,"confirmation":52.0,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":29.0,"intensity":36.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-20.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-29.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-28.0","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-5.2","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"52/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"11.8%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"18.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"35%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its 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