{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BABA34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"20dace30-df36-4e14-8a77-44e507b5b409","symbol":"BABA34","name":"Alibaba Group Holding Limited","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Internet Retail"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving before price has fully responded","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":14,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.9,"averageExpectedMove":11.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":14,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":21.4,"averageReturn":-3.8,"medianReturn":-9.4,"confidenceLow":7.6,"confidenceHigh":47.6,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":28.6,"averageReturn":-7.5,"medianReturn":-7.2,"confidenceLow":11.7,"confidenceHigh":54.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-5.0,"medianReturn":-8.1,"confidenceLow":21.4,"confidenceHigh":67.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":31.0,"averageExpectedMove":31.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.0,"medianReturn":-13.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-24.0,"medianReturn":-24.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-37.8,"medianReturn":-37.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-7.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-13.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-25.4,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-21.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-28.8,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-30.1,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-31.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-30.9,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-24.0,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-26.1,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-29.0,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-25.8,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-27.0,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-29.6,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-32.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-37.6,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-39.6,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-46.4,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-45.3,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-37.6,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-35.4,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-37.8,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":28.6,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 28.6% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -7.5% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 25.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 10.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.5% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-10-10","price":31.049999},{"date":"2025-11-07","price":31.799999}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-01-23","price":32.650002}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[16.3506,16.3506,15.8587,16.4785,17.118,20.5318,21.9091,21.8107,20.5219,19.5775,20.1776,18.8692,18.4658,16.9704,18.4756,18.4855,18.6134,17.7083,18.4953,18.456,17.4623,18.1215,18.5248,20.3448,21.1811,25.0179,28.9727,27.4281,28.5202,28.3726,27.0248,26.6411,23.6307,22.0763,22.1452,23.9455,24.8408,24.8113,24.585,24.0537,22.9224,23.247,22.35,22.31,22.39,21.02,21.01,23.88,23.72,23.09,23.47,23.23,23.95,26.4,26.1,29.5,31.0,32.81,35.7,31.05,32.14,33.43,32.92,31.8,28.93,29.47,29.82,30.68,29.81,29.9,30.41,29.91,28.76,31.66,32.65,32.05,30.25,28.92,28.39,26.41,24.35,25.7,23.25,22.83,22.54,22.56,24.813,24.1381,23.1753,24.2274,23.8205,22.9768,22.1431,22.0339,20.38,19.73,17.49,17.85,20.38,21.08,20.3,21.99,23.38,22.9],"consensus":[44.831,32.0069,0.0,46.3726,53.6427,82.6117,74.2332,38.133,9.2057,0.0,29.1795,-37.3738,-29.1391,-60.2579,21.4633,0.0,0.0,-28.9002,13.4094,0.0,-43.6072,18.2555,11.6467,57.1728,56.4192,80.1514,87.2342,20.1691,54.6674,45.0523,-12.8174,0.0,-48.9492,-44.3407,-33.1914,8.4118,28.5203,9.3229,0.0,-14.0456,-36.4451,-12.6844,-42.8948,-30.9077,-17.0114,-54.3745,-23.6531,50.3099,0.0,-11.0478,20.3149,-11.1323,29.0664,64.2167,21.1213,75.4999,61.1507,66.7753,73.6813,-13.0272,36.4867,50.186,0.0,0.0,-52.5982,-11.5417,-10.5313,9.688,-17.909,9.7778,20.4405,0.0,-36.1398,44.52,35.8531,8.7777,-20.1878,-39.4482,-35.2016,-61.2732,-69.1891,0.0,-68.8614,-54.4186,-43.632,-32.7542,22.8644,-15.7028,-28.3798,11.4044,-21.2549,-34.9095,-43.8816,-40.4774,-43.0878,-49.4749,-44.8389,-41.1543,-9.4648,12.9835,-21.8045,43.2653,47.7886,7.4447],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[37.9847,56.2045,14.9964,75.4762,57.9633,63.0131,73.2826,-24.1164,34.3851,57.4064,0.0,0.0,-46.8098,-5.2048,-4.0725,17.1465,-25.3736,15.8616,29.9484,0.0,-33.6954,39.3946,33.8909,3.1196,-27.3227,-33.1634,-33.2249,-64.9239,-70.3744,0.0,-70.0998,-59.3498,-45.0981,-24.945,23.193,-21.2209,-34.667,7.0122,-16.5567,-37.206,-53.267,-46.8186,-41.1681,-54.4814,-38.6572,-40.3291,-14.3273,7.6449,-35.6186,41.2248,41.6119,0.9402],"force":[33.991,92.7847,8.0342,91.4418,56.6602,67.2456,73.0293,-81.1638,23.2316,43.2511,0.0,0.0,-91.1906,-0.5417,-5.1514,15.8828,-30.9642,17.2006,25.6912,0.0,-47.7313,74.6246,36.4541,12.4612,-41.4768,-51.3691,-24.5703,-60.5669,-73.7769,0.0,-72.1336,-32.9481,-20.0304,-5.6072,65.9607,-9.0579,-22.6035,38.6394,-22.4588,-32.9887,-36.8047,-25.1026,-28.5183,-29.9131,-27.0882,-12.0077,-12.7268,31.2861,-34.4308,60.9972,57.3712,22.5545],"direction":[15.3564,52.9676,48.9464,64.1399,68.0008,70.739,74.6027,-48.3151,48.3563,46.8877,0.0,0.0,-31.6475,-27.4149,-21.7556,3.261,-0.0529,2.4772,5.8239,0.0,-30.6538,28.8743,37.6664,30.4146,-3.1727,-38.1158,-45.0547,-57.6053,-64.5575,0.0,-65.1089,-64.1188,-58.8147,-61.0697,8.2942,-14.1427,-25.3203,3.0295,-25.7643,-33.6569,-38.2103,-44.2125,-55.6884,-57.726,-64.5828,-62.9163,-19.7588,6.0113,-3.0019,32.9316,48.0029,38.4555],"intensity":[25.0,86.5385,90.3846,90.3846,86.5385,80.7692,88.4615,100.0,86.5385,44.2308,21.1538,71.1538,80.7692,48.0769,44.2308,32.6923,23.0769,63.4615,23.0769,13.4615,38.4615,84.6154,34.6154,26.9231,65.3846,57.6923,61.5385,69.2308,75.0,44.2308,76.9231,63.4615,26.9231,5.7692,75.0,9.6154,44.2308,53.8462,34.6154,59.6154,34.6154,7.6923,69.2308,7.6923,82.6923,11.5385,88.4615,23.0769,15.3846,57.6923,69.2308,1.9231],"confirmation":[77.3154,89.5421,30.3442,92.6462,87.4799,89.4398,91.5642,39.0502,79.3038,83.7381,6.6459,6.8722,86.0958,26.2039,25.9711,49.2043,51.3483,49.1242,51.8894,24.769,79.9552,83.242,79.5212,4.9062,53.0104,81.0825,78.9706,87.5303,90.2623,33.173,90.1165,84.6845,81.2206,55.1063,33.0611,72.7383,76.8097,27.8593,74.9099,79.0775,81.6834,80.3876,81.3733,83.1595,81.9017,80.2937,27.66,27.4605,53.1255,82.4164,83.6785,6.608],"persistence":[12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[3.4175,17.5736,38.3717,12.2383,19.4205,16.6006,13.1593,38.4223,7.8871,9.7738,44.4985,14.9743,18.4783,41.5113,39.5372,28.9146,29.9952,6.1527,5.2352,19.0484,18.8715,20.9207,28.779,41.7778,49.7338,29.2733,32.3215,19.3482,15.3922,45.3767,15.4612,22.0123,20.2235,32.222,29.3227,46.1142,36.8629,36.7337,21.3811,17.9634,12.1049,27.6907,28.2552,25.1588,27.5622,29.3728,4.7324,34.2463,60.0344,28.2138,25.1101,40.4742],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":7.4,"control":0.9,"force":22.6,"direction":38.5,"confirmation":6.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":40.5,"intensity":1.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+7.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+0.9","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+22.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction 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