{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"URBN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"253aae49-830e-48a8-99e7-b499b514aa3e","symbol":"URBN","name":"Urban Outfitters Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Apparel Retail"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":23.3,"averageExpectedMove":23.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.7,"medianReturn":-5.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-21.3,"medianReturn":-21.3,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.8,"medianReturn":-10.8,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-11.6,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-16.9,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-16.1,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-19.4,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-21.3,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-19.2,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-15.8,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-17.5,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-18.2,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-13.3,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-10.7,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-10.8,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":28.6,"averageReturn":12.7,"sample":21},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 28.6% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.7% across 21 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.4% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-12-26","price":77.05},{"date":"2026-01-16","price":69.48}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-12-12","price":81.84},{"date":"2026-01-09","price":81.56}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[38.59,36.32,35.43,36.03,36.77,38.32,37.26,36.3,37.34,35.17,35.69,37.72,38.22,38.98,48.73,49.98,52.44,55.09,55.81,57.545,56.96,55.01,58.14,55.42,56.6,56.01,52.8,58.19,53.56,48.81,49.13,51.48,46.61,46.75,49.48,51.41,54.51,51.82,62.81,72.28,69.9,70.02,68.01,67.95,69.4,73.57,72.28,72.14,75.61,76.21,76.4,77.53,76.98,67.08,70.77,67.71,71.41,73.0,72.85,68.34,66.89,67.77,64.61,63.9,61.46,64.11,74.07,75.69,81.84,81.33,77.05,75.34,81.56,69.48,67.39,70.85,72.47,70.18,68.35,66.2,64.06,63.41,63.39,61.21,64.57,68.6,74.18,73.64,69.01,71.5,68.95,73.01,72.65,71.3,77.0,76.42,73.54,70.72,68.83,72.98,69.97,74.18,76.92,77.81],"consensus":[-49.7322,-60.9783,-50.8683,-18.3302,-22.4684,15.7565,-17.3913,-23.9541,0.0,-49.2799,-24.0129,26.919,0.0,29.0401,76.4268,48.4914,69.7669,70.044,53.9067,69.0825,33.6297,0.0,46.0961,0.0,34.5577,18.572,-34.7644,59.0395,-36.4617,-58.0938,-19.0189,0.0,-51.3413,-14.7595,14.3579,13.7485,41.0399,-10.4546,71.7834,76.8962,14.7613,33.4975,13.0639,0.0,30.7473,53.1343,26.7506,31.1374,47.6193,31.7671,23.1476,30.6275,24.5855,-57.9064,14.4901,-42.3659,15.04,27.7376,11.0905,-36.6616,-34.9863,-13.5182,-49.8309,-27.2138,-50.1428,0.0,54.6239,34.5782,63.1064,26.1667,0.0,0.0,46.3587,-56.4862,-40.7424,0.0,0.0,-16.1325,-23.2078,-34.0501,-38.8701,-32.2593,-30.97,-45.0123,11.7069,33.538,54.2046,19.8161,-15.3647,28.2664,-18.547,35.9874,0.0,0.0,51.4237,18.4152,0.0,-20.409,-27.7087,17.6688,-30.7286,28.4554,29.9903,25.3431],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[28.8226,-50.3815,26.3111,-38.3083,29.0026,29.3052,12.9915,-42.7157,-32.8906,-5.6782,-47.1024,-20.2185,-48.9377,0.0,45.2376,28.7351,63.6628,17.3438,0.0,0.0,52.1224,-51.6524,-41.3774,0.0,0.0,-19.3667,-30.0299,-29.9672,-34.4182,-27.8646,-30.4243,-46.2723,18.6539,35.0503,52.5778,11.022,-27.143,28.2634,-12.2023,38.587,0.0,0.0,48.8354,15.2078,0.0,-24.3332,-22.5683,24.2975,-30.3772,28.1415,24.5058,22.4467],"force":[8.1757,-95.553,42.8706,-54.7652,35.4602,33.4314,7.1534,-53.7776,-33.7371,-2.9317,-55.1468,-13.908,-49.5751,0.0,89.3412,28.9448,71.7997,0.784,0.0,0.0,58.6957,-90.1165,-36.1442,0.0,0.0,-17.2404,-20.1435,-32.8735,-31.4527,-18.2573,-15.0103,-39.9441,39.8255,50.6968,69.0673,0.2375,-37.9532,35.8386,-34.5565,58.9291,0.0,0.0,62.6871,0.3549,0.0,-31.8593,-29.542,36.3943,-47.7882,38.1669,26.4866,14.6102],"direction":[31.4643,-39.6158,19.2913,-38.1464,15.5032,21.8789,11.7302,-17.517,-38.2737,-34.2282,-49.1521,-44.7124,-51.9255,0.0,40.5532,45.2798,56.2609,55.5004,0.0,0.0,30.9595,-37.989,-43.3011,0.0,0.0,-11.6449,-17.5998,-39.5568,-49.2562,-47.2832,-42.9936,-47.1923,16.3171,19.5535,45.4475,43.8512,-14.2308,22.8611,-14.3626,16.6294,0.0,0.0,46.3365,34.981,0.0,-7.7453,-32.2738,3.2821,-18.9448,21.8774,38.761,36.3195],"intensity":[80.7692,92.3077,86.5385,53.8462,59.6154,30.7692,1.9231,71.1538,50.0,11.5385,50.0,53.8462,34.6154,40.3846,100.0,98.0769,84.6154,84.6154,61.5385,63.4615,84.6154,98.0769,34.6154,46.1538,42.3077,25.0,15.3846,46.1538,25.0,7.6923,15.3846,32.6923,53.8462,71.1538,78.8462,84.6154,69.2308,34.6154,50.0,63.4615,75.0,50.0,82.6923,7.6923,38.4615,36.5385,55.7692,82.6923,38.4615,63.4615,59.6154,7.6923],"confirmation":[75.3027,87.792,32.1038,81.9968,31.1964,77.0257,48.7333,80.1611,79.1895,27.2361,84.1495,76.4095,84.0467,32.1503,86.6807,78.9824,88.4505,53.187,30.6022,2.9703,83.1229,87.1742,80.8877,30.6651,3.7319,73.1469,75.2291,78.9224,80.2802,77.9632,77.4323,82.2303,30.645,79.2321,85.8232,51.2118,31.1282,77.2761,74.5196,80.1755,4.4691,25.8723,84.8383,50.7247,5.1478,52.1534,77.001,52.1572,78.3584,77.4065,77.5737,83.8268],"persistence":[100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[19.5067,20.69,53.708,28.4722,53.1684,32.508,21.5384,26.9443,24.8393,38.5131,24.1586,28.9963,20.7067,39.4448,22.061,32.5574,18.4447,36.9067,32.581,5.0632,26.6346,20.5973,26.9794,38.1513,45.5051,14.5794,20.4826,21.3228,28.1256,30.3567,26.3556,19.7814,0.1936,26.5089,22.8577,40.0825,53.4281,23.9308,38.0261,28.1221,39.6389,1.202,23.6216,29.9618,15.8862,1.648,35.5024,49.214,25.1337,26.0205,34.4452,33.4687],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":25.3,"control":22.4,"force":14.6,"direction":36.3,"confirmation":83.8,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":33.5,"intensity":7.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+25.3","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+22.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+14.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+36.3","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"84/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"12.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"87%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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