{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"PBL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"29a05e86-d1cc-4790-8367-8ec799396129","symbol":"PBL","name":"Pollard Banknote Limited","exchange":"TOR","country":"CA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CAD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Gambling"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving before price has fully responded","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":8.5,"averageExpectedMove":13.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":52.9,"averageReturn":0.4,"medianReturn":0.2,"confidenceLow":31.0,"confidenceHigh":73.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":3.3,"medianReturn":-7.7,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":47.1,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 47.1% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.7% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 13.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 13.7% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-08-14","price":18.469999}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[21.1984,25.0348,23.9921,22.969,23.8937,26.6086,27.1211,26.0173,24.6179,23.859,23.3958,23.3072,25.5245,25.0318,24.884,24.6179,24.47,23.5535,22.7158,24.0592,24.7801,25.8863,29.3036,27.9703,26.7653,26.0246,27.5851,25.6987,25.7678,20.7407,20.0296,20.1481,18.1184,18.3065,17.861,18.8313,20.7916,19.752,19.4055,19.4451,20.4253,21.3164,22.1084,22.0589,21.0886,21.8329,22.2994,21.5848,21.9818,22.4085,21.1879,20.3543,20.5428,18.7267,18.5084,19.0741,21.4062,22.2299,22.8267,21.4044,22.1603,22.5183,20.1511,19.6538,19.0372,19.2261,19.6439,19.2858,19.4251,19.5842,19.5643,19.2357,20.4523,19.844,19.5947,18.8368,19.4352,19.3953,18.8468,19.4451,18.9166,18.3482,18.2286,17.8995,17.9,17.9,18.25,18.28,18.3364,17.8777,16.3522,16.1428,16.1328,15.7739,15.9932,17.2396,17.1997,17.57,17.58,17.75,17.75,17.35,17.56,18.47],"consensus":[-49.2179,16.7519,-25.0604,-30.2845,8.301,45.4511,24.8112,0.0,-22.3944,-24.737,-30.9559,-20.4903,39.0057,0.0,0.0,0.0,-13.8737,-29.1279,-34.6997,17.3443,24.2915,40.0544,76.0049,12.5935,0.0,0.0,35.0933,-35.3608,0.0,-67.8793,-57.9412,-36.0749,-74.128,-31.5283,-51.9949,0.0,25.4366,-29.0082,-22.3939,0.0,20.9518,32.556,39.194,19.0701,-20.0872,24.8969,28.545,-14.2966,16.1869,26.5185,-32.6489,-43.9375,-10.3111,-65.7628,-44.9834,-13.0152,50.2314,47.7319,46.7578,-19.3232,22.154,30.3032,-55.7626,-37.5293,-44.6541,-28.4438,0.0,-29.8239,0.0,0.0,0.0,-27.0718,44.2499,-18.4065,-19.5776,-38.9297,0.0,0.0,-40.0644,21.8054,-25.9958,-51.8211,-29.79,-46.4035,-28.4099,-26.6409,8.8755,0.0,0.0,-37.0624,-65.9555,-47.0436,-31.1688,-50.2982,-21.0679,31.8052,18.9213,18.9995,9.4942,31.0771,21.6313,-22.5975,22.3816,62.0402],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-4.3186,-63.8783,-48.5493,-9.6393,46.3819,43.6195,43.1549,-29.8002,16.4522,35.3703,-51.6839,-37.6181,-35.8041,-24.7671,0.0,-30.3313,0.0,0.0,0.0,-38.0312,38.153,-28.4026,-29.5246,-45.8382,0.0,0.0,-48.1235,12.3197,-29.4627,-50.5443,-30.8748,-51.3771,-27.0876,-30.2614,7.6633,0.0,0.0,-37.2744,-59.9421,-43.1391,-23.223,-52.2303,-18.2956,34.4306,19.1186,9.1211,6.317,30.956,18.7416,-31.3506,27.8593,55.0242],"force":[-3.1288,-88.6287,-28.6265,-20.3208,87.3041,54.8604,43.8817,-69.5969,18.8924,23.5881,-90.2724,-35.2472,-54.8852,-11.8858,0.0,-34.0909,0.0,0.0,0.0,-23.2745,80.538,-31.2968,-21.8562,-43.3084,0.0,0.0,-40.9437,57.0862,-25.4336,-71.9333,-20.7344,-37.7638,-10.8063,-10.6416,41.8851,0.0,0.0,-61.6564,-88.7152,-37.5156,-6.9021,-34.0873,-6.4711,48.2817,20.352,13.1701,1.1755,29.5849,10.9017,-37.8768,28.2294,89.0232],"direction":[-26.7595,-51.5836,-52.5915,-40.6847,28.1503,47.3401,52.9299,-28.5601,31.0002,29.3089,-35.7742,-39.0578,-47.4603,-44.473,0.0,-26.1962,0.0,0.0,0.0,-17.2591,25.2977,-2.2249,-6.5819,-27.9066,0.0,0.0,-30.2259,7.4458,-22.4353,-38.9143,-35.0186,-46.8905,-42.4952,-33.9313,13.3173,0.0,0.0,-19.2528,-56.5712,-58.3116,-57.583,-59.6692,-43.907,17.0357,17.674,34.4531,35.1854,32.2813,32.5977,-1.6802,11.9445,50.7849],"intensity":[38.4615,75.0,71.1538,19.2308,88.4615,40.3846,84.6154,69.2308,30.7692,1.9231,90.3846,80.7692,67.3077,30.7692,5.7692,1.9231,9.6154,1.9231,3.8462,5.7692,55.7692,26.9231,23.0769,42.3077,25.0,1.9231,25.0,67.3077,75.0,28.8462,5.7692,15.3846,1.9231,1.9231,15.3846,30.7692,15.3846,28.8462,96.1538,86.5385,7.6923,25.0,5.7692,80.7692,5.7692,50.0,3.8462,40.3846,32.6923,36.5385,23.0769,69.2308],"confirmation":[26.3154,89.7697,81.8418,30.2021,85.2625,83.5541,82.9298,36.3154,75.0768,77.4152,86.9579,79.9385,82.736,76.6534,4.7021,77.666,3.6218,25.8274,26.1162,76.3802,83.3588,51.9386,51.516,80.4857,28.4191,24.6598,80.7246,53.5308,76.2487,85.2151,77.2403,82.51,76.5748,75.9823,6.7057,24.8719,24.6779,80.6063,89.891,82.8231,54.6889,83.5719,52.6585,78.6398,74.0954,74.0527,27.219,77.901,74.639,52.8968,75.2569,88.7821],"persistence":[0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[42.8624,17.1022,27.3933,39.9947,9.0767,26.0302,26.6012,58.3416,19.0078,2.1389,20.7571,25.9011,27.1062,35.349,20.1793,1.0731,16.8234,17.3946,5.7516,10.4341,20.236,24.9213,11.7282,12.9321,49.4012,32.2229,24.4775,29.6069,23.8429,21.6898,25.1735,26.3864,33.1961,26.2967,1.8958,34.1165,38.5006,15.2954,16.9666,26.4594,34.4105,24.8438,22.8229,31.7776,38.0469,40.2672,44.7816,19.5547,25.931,6.4561,12.8964,15.0708],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":62.0,"control":55.0,"force":89.0,"direction":50.8,"confirmation":88.8,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":15.1,"intensity":69.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+62.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+55.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+89.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+50.8","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"89/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"55.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"56%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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