{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MSBT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"29d0f0d7-9998-45db-9a12-31b856b27fe7","symbol":"MSBT","name":"MORGAN STANLEY BITCOIN TRUST","exchange":"NYSEARCA","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Completed returns and cumulative progression, Range expansion and closing direction, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range position and boundary pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":20,"displayedObservations":20,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence developing","headline":"Price structure is visible; Market Dynamics is not yet established","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","take":"Treat movement through the zones as price-location context only. Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal risk.","tone":"neutral","conflict":false},"marketDynamics":{"available":true,"readAvailable":false,"dates":["2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"opens":[20.8,20.46,21.6,22.3,22.65,23.27,22.16,22.0,20.56,18.23,19.16,18.65,17.17,17.6,17.92,18.49,18.61,17.95,18.61,18.17],"highs":[21.09,22.5,22.8,22.6401,23.5599,23.55,22.36,22.37,20.61,18.45,19.285,18.8,17.825,18.54,18.77,19.19,18.82,18.725,18.61,22.31],"lows":[20.24,20.32,21.46,21.5,22.535,22.53,21.6501,20.78,16.93,17.43,17.8399,16.635,16.66,17.56,17.71,18.25,17.88,17.9,17.905,18.17],"closes":[21.04,22.24,22.27,22.5,23.01,22.69,21.73,21.06,17.29,18.23,18.04,17.12,17.61,18.31,18.4,18.39,18.02,18.62,18.04,22.09],"hoverRows":[[{"label":"Open","value":"20.8","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"21.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"20.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"21.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market 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Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"19.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"18.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"18.8","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"17.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"17.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"18.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"17.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"18.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"17.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"22.3","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"18.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"22.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"Reversal warning","className":"is-caution","wide":true}]],"pressureRange":[-2.3,2.3],"priceRange":[16.7666,23.3634],"zones":{"accumulationBoundary":-1.5,"accumulationDarkBoundary":-2.0,"distributionBoundary":1.5,"distributionDarkBoundary":2.0},"state":"Insufficient history","context":{"scenario":"developing","latestDirection":"steady","fourWeekDirection":"steady","now":{"label":"Little changed this week","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week."},"fourWeek":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"price":{"label":"Price and Market Dynamics are broadly aligned","detail":"The current price response is broadly consistent with the underlying Market Dynamics path."}},"diagnosis":{"label":"Zone progression","detail":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","tone":"neutral"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Zone progression","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Between zones","detail":"Price is progressing between the lower and upper positioning zones while the Market Dynamics read develops.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Unavailable","detail":"Too little usable Market Dynamics history is available for a directional confirmation read.","tone":"neutral"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":false,"observations":20,"summary":"More completed weekly history is needed for a dependable ticker-level record."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":22.24},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":22.09}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-04-24","price":22.27}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[21.04,22.24,22.27,22.5,23.01,22.69,21.73,21.06,17.29,18.23,18.04,17.12,17.61,18.31,18.4,18.39,18.02,18.62,18.04,22.09],"consensus":[88.2353,76.1468,20.8955,43.7455,62.7063,9.1341,-29.4803,-46.4691,-84.4814,-21.7265,-57.6483,-72.2727,0.0,0.0,0.0,-11.8788,-28.5905,19.9068,-35.216,71.4575],"supportDates":["2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,3.6552,-34.6021,-39.6913,-78.5356,-6.9667,-56.241,-64.4473,0.0,0.0,0.0,-25.7841,-41.063,19.63,-42.2818,62.891],"force":[88.2353,76.1468,20.8955,43.7455,24.4979,17.7157,-36.2572,-52.1729,-97.464,-30.1422,-36.9214,-79.2268,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5945,-25.8852,51.6177,-38.1144,98.4394],"direction":[null,null,null,null,89.998,42.9289,-18.7861,-50.141,-82.0034,-75.6438,-74.0615,-76.2489,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.3329,-16.2686,2.4275,-25.0706,61.975],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,50.0,40.0,83.3333,42.8571,100.0,88.8889,30.0,72.7273,41.6667,38.4615,14.2857,26.6667,25.0,35.2941,33.3333,100.0],"confirmation":[50.902,47.0336,29.3532,36.6652,63.6527,6.8586,77.5622,83.1472,95.5203,12.0269,85.8372,91.4584,8.5101,7.5298,4.2305,25.9426,76.8765,53.192,79.2498,55.0],"persistence":[null,null,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,71.4286,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,18.6333,30.7174,18.6066,25.3478,7.731,38.972,20.802,13.6597,15.6373,2.9804,17.9573,45.9549,31.4713,3.2032,2.4748,13.2252],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":71.5,"control":62.9,"force":98.4,"direction":62.0,"confirmation":55.0,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":13.2,"intensity":100.0,"evidenceDepth":77},"analysis":{"status":"Completed tape has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Completed tape","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+71.5","detail":"Completed tape has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+62.9","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+98.4","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+62.0","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"55/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"73.0","detail":"Stretched positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"-","detail":"Developing","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"79%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[21.04,22.24,22.27,22.5,23.01,22.69,21.73,21.06,17.29,18.23,18.04,17.12,17.61,18.31,18.4,18.39,18.02,18.62,18.04,22.09],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,21.8846,22.031,21.9763,21.8097,20.9879,20.4865,20.0417,19.5105,19.1649,19.0095,18.8987,18.8062,18.6632,18.6554,18.5435,19.1883],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,20.2749,20.1294,20.0013,19.8819,19.744,19.6607,19.5407,19.7295],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,24.8855,24.8706,24.9292,24.8246,24.6447,24.4691,24.304,24.1613,24.0105,23.881,24.024],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,17.5265,16.9657,16.2741,15.9185,15.8038,15.7362,15.6873,15.5975,15.6084,15.5517,15.646],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"returns","eyebrow":"Observed return path","title":"Completed returns and cumulative progression","description":"Period returns are shown beside the total move recorded across the available tape.","reason":"Selected because direct returns remain fully observable while longer indicators develop.","series":[{"label":"Period 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completed range and open-to-close direction expose expansion, compression and control.","reason":"Selected because these measures use every completed bar and do not require a long history.","series":[{"label":"Completed range","values":[4.0399,9.8022,6.0171,5.0671,4.4542,4.4954,3.2669,7.5499,21.284,5.5952,8.0105,12.646,6.6156,5.3523,5.7609,5.1115,5.2164,4.4307,3.908,18.7415],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.8},{"label":"Open-to-close direction","values":[1.1538,8.6999,3.1019,0.8969,1.5894,-2.4925,-1.9404,-4.2727,-15.9047,0.0,-5.8455,-8.2038,2.5626,4.0341,2.6786,-0.5408,-3.1703,3.7326,-3.0629,21.574],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.8}],"guides":[{"label":"Unchanged 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MSBT Technical Research Pack, completed week 2026-08-21, https://sharemaestro.com/terminal/29d0f0d7-9998-45db-9a12-31b856b27fe7/technical-pack/","data_notes":{"time_series":"Parallel time-series arrays align by index with their dates array.","events":"Sparse chart markers are published as compact dated event records rather than null-filled arrays.","missing_values":"A remaining null in an aligned series means that observation is genuinely unavailable; zero remains a valid value."},"boundary":"Completed market observations and published proprietary outputs only. Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}