{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"2282 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"2d6be6c3-af2d-4388-907b-8dffb34e9325","symbol":"2282","name":"Naqi Water Company","exchange":"SAU","country":"SA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"SAR","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Beverages - Non-Alcoholic"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":206,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":11,"completedEpisodes":10,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.0,"averageExpectedMove":4.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":11,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":27.3,"averageReturn":-2.2,"medianReturn":-2.5,"confidenceLow":9.7,"confidenceHigh":56.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":10,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":30.0,"averageReturn":-5.7,"medianReturn":-6.2,"confidenceLow":10.8,"confidenceHigh":60.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":10,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":10.0,"averageReturn":-8.5,"medianReturn":-8.8,"confidenceLow":1.8,"confidenceHigh":40.4,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":11},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":11},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":11},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":11},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":11},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":11},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":11},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":11},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":11},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":11},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":10},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":10},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":10},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":10},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":10},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":10},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":10},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":10},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":10},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":10},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":10},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":10},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":10},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":10},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":10},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":10}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":30.0,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":10},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 30.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -5.7% across 10 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 4.4% across 10 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 3.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-09-26","price":54.799999},{"date":"2025-12-05","price":54.849998},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":54.099998}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[64.7,63.1,63.3,63.6,64.2,65.5,62.4,62.0,62.8,62.2,61.9,62.0,60.4,61.1,59.9,63.4,65.0,65.0,62.7,65.0,65.2,65.0,66.5,67.4,66.8,65.4,63.6,62.9,59.0,58.9,57.8,59.8,59.1,56.2,57.0,55.7,55.4,53.6,55.2,54.0,53.5,53.5,52.0,51.2,53.5,54.6,54.4,51.95,51.2,49.76,50.25,51.05,51.25,51.35,50.5,50.0,51.95,54.8,54.3,57.2,55.5,54.1,54.05,55.0,54.0,53.45,53.6,54.85,57.0,56.45,59.0,57.35,59.2,59.5,61.35,59.55,57.0,57.2,54.0,52.75,52.25,51.2,52.0,51.8,52.1,51.65,52.55,52.7,52.65,54.3,54.3,53.5,53.5,53.85,53.55,53.0,54.1,55.0667,56.1965,54.7228,57.4246,56.0,56.95,56.95],"consensus":[-9.8305,-43.9189,-17.5732,-8.7981,0.0,20.6318,-39.8145,-16.5069,0.0,-22.9108,-24.8324,0.0,-41.1871,0.0,-39.1045,42.8039,44.7545,19.6281,-20.6799,42.972,18.9276,0.0,46.5673,36.1475,16.3125,-10.7211,-39.5857,-25.354,-53.4189,-23.4834,-47.3901,0.0,-19.4262,-39.906,-19.2866,-37.8966,-33.7211,-47.4819,0.0,-44.9852,-28.1234,-14.1064,-50.4177,-35.1943,17.5592,13.4136,0.0,-40.5292,-34.7279,-55.7259,-15.9414,0.0,-8.7897,0.0,-26.3248,-27.596,32.2354,64.5591,20.0337,71.8166,0.0,-13.6642,0.0,20.7362,-13.2441,-8.9449,0.0,28.5314,51.5878,12.4178,66.6765,0.0,50.3629,31.0544,45.1983,-10.4933,-34.5513,-8.2593,-57.3967,-44.3944,-25.8088,-44.4144,-8.2862,-23.6139,-20.6986,-16.923,0.0,0.0,0.0,40.4037,9.0588,0.0,0.0,9.5787,0.0,-13.751,29.2104,37.6399,48.7785,-12.9379,59.1248,0.0,30.9722,21.4156],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-12.2363,0.0,-35.7696,-32.469,33.2738,60.3637,14.4489,67.8196,0.0,-17.3838,0.0,26.7608,-10.4713,-8.9008,0.0,31.3934,41.3342,5.1152,61.8326,0.0,43.1671,25.6359,34.014,-16.4525,-37.2803,-5.1266,-58.7412,-43.1112,-15.9254,-42.1333,-5.4642,-23.2891,-26.5848,-18.9779,0.0,0.0,0.0,38.0692,2.9748,0.0,0.0,14.4193,0.0,-15.9122,30.2113,34.6448,45.4799,-21.2892,57.9166,0.0,30.8034,16.6374],"force":[-2.5735,0.0,-27.5383,-20.3695,60.4324,91.5442,8.5489,90.9616,0.0,-40.08,0.0,30.0345,-31.9001,-14.1548,0.0,44.4876,75.6318,14.3427,89.4521,0.0,71.9512,20.0274,59.6731,-64.5458,-59.4872,-6.1743,-71.0028,-35.9911,-5.5843,-32.9917,-17.3123,-6.259,-2.7813,-3.9816,0.0,0.0,0.0,64.6872,0.8587,0.0,0.0,13.1829,0.0,-14.6901,48.1692,54.2137,59.7047,-49.1638,73.3964,0.0,31.5293,6.5937],"direction":[-12.9674,0.0,-14.6639,-27.1886,10.9078,50.0788,46.8325,62.7096,0.0,-9.4552,0.0,7.2092,-3.0873,-5.274,0.0,13.8633,46.1318,39.8781,55.9442,0.0,43.1663,45.1233,47.6413,-34.9262,-13.621,-13.3287,-46.1414,-51.8634,-51.5501,-55.1803,-42.2855,-36.3813,-26.7695,-23.8185,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.7264,21.8691,0.0,0.0,1.4722,0.0,-10.6102,14.5245,29.2244,44.7438,-22.4822,50.3116,0.0,30.7672,37.4633],"intensity":[21.1538,1.9231,15.3846,23.0769,55.7692,82.6923,61.5385,86.5385,48.0769,44.2308,9.6154,36.5385,17.3077,9.6154,51.9231,36.5385,92.3077,19.2308,82.6923,57.6923,69.2308,48.0769,92.3077,82.6923,80.7692,40.3846,86.5385,84.6154,50.0,19.2308,53.8462,9.6154,15.3846,32.6923,15.3846,17.3077,15.3846,51.9231,44.2308,36.5385,38.4615,23.0769,38.4615,42.3077,32.6923,34.6154,69.2308,51.9231,86.5385,50.0,19.2308,34.6154],"confirmation":[48.2962,24.5981,76.317,76.5362,79.1588,89.5452,30.1152,91.6257,11.5579,29.8047,3.1374,52.1605,50.1823,48.3552,24.7805,77.5727,85.3971,6.3292,90.1044,32.7628,84.8837,77.6839,83.075,35.032,79.7748,25.2938,86.7611,81.9697,53.1264,81.8992,6.9399,52.3658,51.3211,50.323,28.2607,1.9693,1.4183,81.7048,25.4083,48.1111,1.1991,48.4346,1.2247,72.396,77.9099,80.5955,83.9924,32.5798,87.3733,31.5639,77.9307,59.8074],"persistence":[50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,12.5,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[6.4805,44.5936,23.3496,22.192,9.0154,17.1279,39.6643,14.0834,48.2708,15.1017,7.7377,56.0384,32.0277,16.2476,17.1809,19.3565,22.3066,42.0476,16.6032,48.1957,20.5767,33.5439,25.0177,51.034,26.686,40.8178,21.2717,27.7403,36.5789,27.7129,37.0145,16.1964,5.3031,24.7478,15.3738,32.656,22.5063,28.8152,40.98,40.464,40.0934,33.4305,42.1919,26.5713,21.1523,28.1705,25.5533,54.8564,20.2307,36.7866,13.7654,37.4237],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":21.4,"control":16.6,"force":6.6,"direction":37.5,"confirmation":59.8,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":37.4,"intensity":34.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+21.4","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+16.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+6.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+37.5","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"60/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.4%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"83%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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