{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GTOC Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"2d88c96d-cc8f-4e1a-9f22-21a2c8a777a2","symbol":"GTOC","name":"Invesco Core Fixed Income ETF","exchange":"CBOE","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six 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positive, Market Dynamics cautious","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":1.3,"averageExpectedMove":1.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":-0.2,"medianReturn":-0.2,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":93.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-0.7,"medianReturn":-0.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":100.0,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":2},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 100.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.7% across 2 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 1.3% across 2 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[],"reversal_dangers":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[24.102,24.335,24.2807,24.2985,24.3878,24.4413,24.667,24.7687,24.7272,24.6623,24.769,24.8293,24.9679,25.0176,24.844,24.8518,24.797,24.9006,25.0035,24.9012,24.8517,24.9397,24.9925,24.9415,25.0246,25.0079,25.0197,25.0372,25.1071,25.3378,25.2984,25.4203,25.1668,24.9354,24.8097,24.7686,25.0193,25.0407,25.1887,25.0302,24.927,24.9994,24.7336,24.8315,24.9617,24.8548,25.0015,24.9228,25.0431,24.9471,24.8172,24.8382,24.6576,24.6283,24.7751,24.7515,24.7237],"consensus":[53.9836,100.0,-100.0,-42.7542,77.5241,59.8797,78.1402,65.8227,21.1132,17.7454,61.8599,65.9686,76.5259,66.6383,0.0,33.541,-20.1027,45.1091,60.1285,-11.5521,-10.8773,41.5323,41.4479,-11.2178,57.2759,0.0,33.5404,17.9931,57.0402,80.145,16.8881,68.7312,-25.1505,-63.5294,-60.4001,-56.3972,26.8287,12.0126,48.9054,-12.1896,-43.4292,12.3546,-64.0657,0.0,18.6132,-48.2759,34.8145,-9.3208,44.162,-25.1156,-54.9008,0.0,-67.308,-50.3403,15.9081,-20.9513,-18.5322],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[64.3274,86.2295,54.1969,0.737,1.1968,58.6323,73.3946,77.1493,55.634,0.0,35.9741,-13.819,65.3295,61.1652,-13.6022,-11.4819,39.3048,48.0537,-12.1888,55.1457,0.0,41.1539,6.1523,57.6473,85.3575,9.5558,71.1722,-32.0763,-54.0237,-60.4773,-60.2185,38.7522,11.3677,53.2208,-24.3537,-36.0753,23.4102,-69.601,0.0,26.5523,-41.227,36.2401,-16.9966,41.1164,-27.8223,-49.5394,0.0,-64.0126,-51.5231,17.4715,-17.9164,-25.8695],"force":[34.3106,56.9085,57.8804,27.2515,35.0656,53.7912,53.7162,68.1107,61.9473,0.0,14.3348,-57.7601,55.6675,68.4566,-67.0673,-49.1699,62.7687,53.3762,-58.3513,77.5459,0.0,31.1204,10.9661,77.6957,98.1378,31.4752,70.7516,-81.745,-95.7568,-59.9648,-40.6623,74.2971,15.7094,53.3967,-26.7468,-68.4218,32.1149,-61.5349,0.0,33.59,-76.2288,47.847,-11.7288,80.0125,-63.6958,-83.7736,0.0,-88.0701,-39.9843,66.8974,-15.1104,-13.94],"direction":[73.0603,84.0609,84.7825,80.6312,74.3801,71.3118,66.2334,81.8242,82.5654,0.0,44.4792,-0.386,14.4585,52.9951,-30.4445,-17.1655,28.9091,25.3781,-23.5587,45.2319,0.0,26.568,36.5447,41.5925,61.3357,59.8131,64.4983,-23.1892,-51.3735,-60.6226,-63.2691,20.7042,10.1089,40.7654,-12.1102,-33.9817,14.395,-59.5473,0.0,1.1578,-36.3655,23.8763,-1.1717,22.0353,-5.535,-40.4047,0.0,-56.2443,-56.3857,22.2995,-28.5917,-13.4268],"intensity":[60.0,83.3333,100.0,25.0,55.5556,40.0,27.2727,66.6667,46.1538,71.4286,60.0,18.75,35.2941,61.1111,31.5789,15.0,28.5714,13.6364,13.0435,33.3333,12.0,46.1538,66.6667,32.1429,93.1034,80.0,64.5161,96.875,93.9394,67.6471,80.0,94.4444,32.4324,65.7895,69.2308,42.5,24.3902,97.619,58.1395,84.0909,44.4444,63.0435,23.4043,52.0833,34.6939,58.0,35.2941,78.8462,3.8462,69.2308,1.9231,1.9231],"confirmation":[86.3145,92.2346,88.9984,11.5861,11.8019,87.5984,88.6234,92.2223,89.349,39.2535,78.1107,53.0096,82.4486,87.4791,34.5188,30.9672,81.9715,81.5262,32.7039,86.9785,6.3144,78.5432,51.0574,86.8731,94.1153,33.4234,90.0184,37.2811,89.4564,87.3136,85.5093,36.9337,71.9665,83.7208,29.4091,82.7711,30.1248,88.3395,31.6243,51.872,84.4076,79.5161,48.5224,83.2708,55.6857,86.5299,5.2471,90.2215,83.7753,34.0446,74.5726,81.6785],"persistence":[33.3333,42.8571,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[10.3532,10.8661,17.0823,39.3182,39.6191,7.2991,5.1294,11.1247,16.6399,35.9148,5.2874,36.8221,63.7375,15.7906,29.9879,32.1295,0.9147,26.7815,26.7395,19.2319,31.2101,0.794,35.9689,13.6943,9.8905,41.4244,15.6217,37.384,18.0509,19.7455,21.7973,51.6114,25.0254,24.9101,52.6469,4.4006,18.8575,17.6643,40.0724,1.222,12.9515,30.1666,32.95,3.4657,42.9261,16.461,26.7144,16.0969,24.1773,23.313,22.0464,36.4754],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-18.5,"control":-25.9,"force":-13.9,"direction":-13.4,"confirmation":81.7,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":36.5,"intensity":1.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-18.5","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-25.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-13.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-13.4","detail":"Downward 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envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,24.0392,24.0512,24.0594,24.0524,24.0488,24.0689,24.0879,24.1076,24.1227,24.1312,24.1465,24.2501,24.3051,24.3837,24.4781,24.5604,24.6486,24.6788,24.6908,24.7087,24.7076,24.7085,24.6882,24.6922,24.6858,24.6802,24.6661,24.6916,24.7035,24.706,24.7185,24.7297,24.7357,24.6941,24.6791,24.6745,24.6587,24.6576,24.6494,24.6482,24.6593,24.6574,24.7009,24.6684,24.6234,24.619,24.6165,24.5976],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"participation","eyebrow":"Participation","title":"Activity pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,114.6805,69.8528,108.5549,88.2494,111.188,75.6307,1383.7541,3.8318,1.7795,2.3745,2.1511,2.6201,76.9548,8.334,27.9381,19.2967,20.1141,101.7862,25.9679,20.0722,26.1724,25.2192,45.5133,37.5,23.0724,61.4396,149.6652,40.2639,41.219,485.1408,29.6837,29.2667,35.1352,268.3529,28.2714,4.1036,3.2965,4.7879,184.3427,12.3091,3.0878,1616.894,37.8797,17.0163,12.9362,13.8355,11.5065,50.6215,12.8317,14.7428],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,91.3531,83.9912,75.9156,89.1882,96.7069,97.4166,98.0194,79.6036,80.388,74.877,85.291,95.6438,85.3586,80.3732,89.2229,94.5368,89.4061,97.7695,91.802,92.8173,93.2439,98.4011,100.0,95.8939,97.7197,64.937,35.7199,19.8561,9.2525,40.071,40.6149,62.3676,39.0615,23.8886,34.5389,0.748,25.3736,41.2185,28.2104,46.0677,36.4818,51.1346,39.4456,23.6338,26.1923,4.2105,0.6444,18.5112,15.6389,12.2554],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From 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impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.","reason":"Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of direction.","series":[{"label":"Impulse","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.1944,0.2112,0.2081,0.2039,0.1939,0.1922,0.1968,0.1901,0.1786,0.1747,0.1738,0.167,0.1665,0.1628,0.1591,0.1557,0.1568,0.1743,0.1829,0.1973,0.1861,0.1567,0.1219,0.09,0.0839,0.0799,0.0877,0.0801,0.0651,0.0583,0.0311,0.0173,0.0166,0.0074,0.0118,0.0088,0.016,0.0138,0.0015,-0.0064,-0.027,-0.0451,-0.0471,-0.05,-0.054],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":2.0},{"label":"Signal","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.1993,0.1979,0.1977,0.1961,0.1926,0.189,0.186,0.1822,0.1791,0.1758,0.1725,0.1691,0.1666,0.1682,0.1711,0.1764,0.1783,0.174,0.1636,0.1489,0.1359,0.1247,0.1173,0.1098,0.1009,0.0924,0.0801,0.0676,0.0574,0.0474,0.0403,0.034,0.0304,0.0271,0.0219,0.0163,0.0076,-0.0029,-0.0118,-0.0194,-0.0263],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7},{"label":"Expansion","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,-0.0054,-0.0057,-0.0008,-0.0061,-0.014,-0.0144,-0.0122,-0.0152,-0.0126,-0.013,-0.0134,-0.0134,-0.0098,0.0062,0.0118,0.0209,0.0078,-0.0173,-0.0417,-0.0589,-0.052,-0.0448,-0.0296,-0.0297,-0.0358,-0.0341,-0.049,-0.0503,-0.0407,-0.04,-0.0285,-0.0251,-0.0144,-0.0133,-0.0204,-0.0227,-0.0346,-0.0422,-0.0354,-0.0306,-0.0276],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.0,"fill":"rgba(7,134,92,.12)"}],"guides":[{"label":"Neutral","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"directional","eyebrow":"Trend quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,58.3835,56.6891,54.2769,53.3666,52.5213,52.2425,50.1037,46.7891,44.2926,42.2217,39.4907,36.8267,35.044,32.8477,30.84,29.1015,28.1895,27.8591,26.5176,25.2072,23.7234,22.3455,21.042,19.8316,18.9459,18.5984,18.8568,19.1062,19.243,19.0848,19.0064],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive 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