{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"S69 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"2df58fb7-0cad-4042-8fbb-188386e71b1e","symbol":"S69","name":"Serial System Ltd","exchange":"SES","country":"SG","asset_type":"equity","currency":"SGD","sector":"Technology","industry":"Electronics & Computer Distribution"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":20,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":10.0,"averageExpectedMove":15.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":47.6,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":0.0,"confidenceLow":28.3,"confidenceHigh":67.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":20,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":55.0,"averageReturn":6.2,"medianReturn":1.8,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":74.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":25.0,"averageReturn":1.6,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":11.2,"confidenceHigh":46.9,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":20},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":20},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":20},{"week":13,"averageReturn":8.9,"sample":20},{"week":14,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":20},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":20},{"week":16,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":20},{"week":17,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":20},{"week":18,"averageReturn":9.8,"sample":20},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":20},{"week":20,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":20},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":20},{"week":22,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":20},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":20}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":22.3,"averageExpectedMove":22.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-17.0,"medianReturn":-17.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.1,"medianReturn":-18.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-27.7,"medianReturn":-27.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-22.3,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-10.6,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-11.7,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-10.6,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-20.2,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.8,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-28.7,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-22.3,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-23.4,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-27.7,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":63.6,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":22},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 63.6% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -5.3% across 22 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 8 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.1 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 16.8% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-02-14","price":0.046311},{"date":"2025-05-09","price":0.046311},{"date":"2025-05-30","price":0.047296},{"date":"2025-07-25","price":0.046311},{"date":"2025-09-19","price":0.061091}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-09-26","price":0.092621}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.0522,0.0522,0.0532,0.0522,0.0542,0.0503,0.0522,0.0503,0.0493,0.0473,0.0552,0.0473,0.0503,0.0473,0.0434,0.0483,0.0434,0.0424,0.0473,0.0473,0.0453,0.0443,0.0463,0.0463,0.0453,0.0463,0.0434,0.0434,0.0434,0.0414,0.0404,0.0424,0.0414,0.0394,0.0394,0.0463,0.0453,0.0463,0.0434,0.0424,0.0473,0.0463,0.0463,0.0453,0.0434,0.0434,0.0443,0.0443,0.0463,0.0463,0.0443,0.0434,0.0434,0.0424,0.0434,0.0453,0.0611,0.0926,0.0778,0.0778,0.0719,0.0769,0.0828,0.0818,0.0778,0.0759,0.0808,0.0769,0.0769,0.0759,0.0788,0.0847,0.0769,0.0828,0.0808,0.0778,0.0739,0.0769,0.0798,0.0749,0.066,0.0719,0.0709,0.067,0.065,0.069,0.0729,0.0749,0.0749,0.0749,0.0769,0.073,0.077,0.076,0.081,0.078,0.074,0.073,0.074,0.075,0.075,0.073,0.074,0.072],"consensus":[17.8484,0.0,28.7516,0.0,34.7018,-36.8136,0.0,-29.4828,-18.3351,-26.2508,45.0042,-44.3914,14.2739,0.0,-50.5316,24.9323,-39.4679,-41.5275,31.3517,0.0,-26.5619,-24.4622,10.3444,-13.8212,-14.0914,8.4983,-44.9029,-27.6993,0.0,-36.6474,-42.182,0.0,-36.7172,-47.2958,-29.3609,56.0639,0.0,40.397,-17.0549,-22.6838,48.243,16.5494,27.0211,0.0,-32.1282,-17.42,0.0,-8.7573,33.4758,13.3317,-17.1511,-15.0287,-14.3389,-32.9334,9.2498,27.2108,71.0252,84.8189,0.0,39.2772,0.0,43.184,49.9853,18.2291,0.0,0.0,38.1115,-14.0688,10.9404,0.0,21.308,53.3024,-23.2304,35.1325,0.0,-23.727,-31.8223,0.0,16.9095,-27.6908,-55.6602,0.0,-21.8481,-42.9897,-31.9054,0.0,20.7764,23.6114,0.0,10.4646,17.0226,-20.7712,27.3026,17.3129,18.2272,0.0,-29.0985,-24.9325,-21.0883,0.0,0.0,-11.7112,11.5233,-25.2603],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-11.518,-32.7929,15.7733,21.8832,60.7255,82.4609,0.0,32.3422,0.0,53.6225,40.3222,13.4361,0.0,0.0,45.2409,-12.8955,15.5911,0.0,30.2088,56.3298,-30.1809,30.6389,0.0,-22.6575,-35.7655,0.0,27.5294,-29.8032,-61.7022,0.0,-15.2219,-45.4338,-38.876,0.0,28.2103,22.9676,0.0,6.0537,13.2813,-24.5347,33.7027,25.0679,11.6167,0.0,-38.4279,-32.6841,-22.6308,0.0,0.0,-12.3354,19.8688,-24.3896],"force":[-10.1983,-38.1611,27.4285,46.9911,94.548,97.1528,0.0,10.4228,0.0,54.112,61.2711,15.1278,0.0,0.0,44.2445,-44.981,2.6928,0.0,21.7058,63.6665,-46.8236,46.9533,0.0,-37.3623,-37.3607,0.0,18.9145,-33.2918,-51.8555,0.0,-14.2401,-38.0019,-17.108,0.0,32.3821,26.8774,0.0,6.4431,17.405,-33.2966,30.6799,14.3675,7.9842,0.0,-34.8956,-20.445,-17.3727,0.0,0.0,-11.5711,21.5479,-27.7784],"direction":[-20.5205,-29.36,11.1905,19.1707,65.9944,78.7037,0.0,67.8132,0.0,23.4485,52.9677,47.5333,0.0,0.0,25.583,-6.6705,11.5164,0.0,10.8515,42.4395,-1.5653,31.8245,0.0,-15.2096,-23.3598,0.0,3.3404,-21.2759,-51.4727,0.0,-34.855,-43.7592,-34.5084,0.0,3.9907,22.0142,0.0,18.3781,21.0253,-7.5233,17.576,10.5539,33.0986,0.0,-14.2956,-19.279,-21.9794,0.0,0.0,-11.098,5.1749,-24.4567],"intensity":[1.9231,21.1538,25.0,57.6923,100.0,100.0,98.0769,94.2308,82.6923,71.1538,92.3077,84.6154,86.5385,61.5385,71.1538,61.5385,63.4615,23.0769,55.7692,86.5385,88.4615,86.5385,53.8462,53.8462,73.0769,51.9231,51.9231,73.0769,88.4615,80.7692,90.3846,53.8462,42.3077,53.8462,53.8462,53.8462,80.7692,63.4615,63.4615,82.6923,55.7692,21.1538,90.3846,67.3077,53.8462,23.0769,9.6154,11.5385,13.4615,36.5385,13.4615,21.1538],"confirmation":[72.5052,78.7002,28.4685,77.3915,91.6019,95.5539,40.1471,79.795,13.0302,81.9929,84.4865,30.7837,33.5993,5.2337,80.274,52.2184,48.512,25.0499,74.6951,85.3265,53.7141,79.6711,28.0312,76.0245,78.2918,25.0713,50.6437,76.9996,85.6032,31.0251,74.8605,81.5675,77.6525,28.8399,52.2222,75.665,25.3195,25.96,73.5159,52.3045,76.7422,73.3322,50.9546,3.9679,77.346,75.7235,74.6115,2.4424,0.9691,71.7338,50.3031,76.1733],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,62.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[39.5431,33.474,40.2554,32.293,14.4573,7.589,50.7169,30.1764,37.508,66.7395,3.3128,8.6977,26.0733,5.0555,28.1547,14.2126,9.9843,0.6422,28.3677,21.6647,11.6152,28.2539,24.0602,34.9403,14.6719,42.279,20.0522,16.7299,18.9074,40.55,36.3001,24.4778,5.3321,30.0204,11.5691,35.85,45.4426,39.7353,29.366,11.557,10.7997,9.0212,35.4301,44.3317,23.1914,25.6295,38.7318,41.0676,16.7983,5.8556,5.7616,27.8758],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-25.3,"control":-24.4,"force":-27.8,"direction":-24.5,"confirmation":76.2,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":27.9,"intensity":21.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-25.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-24.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-27.8","detail":"Downward 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