{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HBAR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"324df273-0fe4-455d-94ea-13780a29cec4","symbol":"HBAR","name":"1Valour Hedera Physical Staking $ Acc","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"etf","currency":"CHF","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.8,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 100.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -9.8% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 2.9% across 3 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 3.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[],"reversal_dangers":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[0.7739,0.7274,0.7846,0.7924,0.7386,0.7388,0.7129,0.6551,0.7107,0.7016,0.6238,0.6549,0.6085,0.4772,0.6192,0.5755,0.4845,0.4599,0.3839,0.4308,0.398,0.3626,0.3248,0.3221,0.3274,0.3538,0.3439,0.3151,0.2827,0.2631,0.2597,0.2804,0.2808,0.2853,0.2774,0.2682,0.2596,0.2536,0.2586,0.2582,0.2598,0.2518,0.2566,0.2622,0.2533,0.259,0.2276,0.2282,0.2352,0.2118,0.2087,0.2039,0.1953,0.2109,0.1983,0.1996,0.1954,0.2104],"consensus":[-23.9603,-100.0,-63.0363,81.6456,-20.9081,0.0,0.0,-22.6491,18.3314,-11.3163,-56.0148,0.0,-54.0731,-75.2246,18.3992,-26.7725,-55.8124,-43.1982,-69.7655,-12.0006,-39.2376,-58.4768,-52.0862,-47.2188,-41.2769,-21.6444,-29.6451,-35.4357,-57.901,-32.3232,-22.071,-13.3447,-11.522,-10.0251,0.0,-37.4255,-36.212,-25.2983,-14.1187,0.0,0.0,-31.1795,0.0,-13.0379,0.0,13.0097,-39.0437,-24.6172,-14.0756,-41.0641,-28.7114,-31.8189,-37.5198,10.3991,-45.8338,-31.1142,-34.9651,-29.574],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[0.0,-7.1965,23.7077,-7.7461,-54.4735,0.0,-50.8741,-75.6784,30.1749,-18.5602,-66.9535,-54.1827,-70.5505,-4.9675,-41.9259,-61.1954,-62.2086,-54.3839,-50.3458,-38.2933,-41.0438,-42.1706,-63.0399,-17.1076,-8.9932,-9.8457,-11.8975,-21.5859,0.0,-48.3985,-49.8514,-26.9646,-18.772,0.0,0.0,-45.8387,0.0,-27.7027,0.0,13.1027,-44.1978,-25.3473,-14.6871,-45.0623,-32.1797,-34.3333,-39.3122,17.3767,-63.1156,-47.1746,-55.0778,-27.4703],"force":[0.0,-15.4145,55.6376,-7.0516,-72.3822,0.0,-66.5681,-79.8229,46.7137,-19.7956,-46.9831,-33.9252,-82.9969,-16.1509,-19.7901,-61.2019,-36.5576,-22.8226,-13.0181,-18.8465,-19.8267,-27.1456,-66.1533,-27.9454,-1.7548,-14.8367,-7.5702,-11.2194,0.0,-36.7921,-23.3588,-11.1375,-8.5795,0.0,0.0,-30.6252,0.0,-8.6831,0.0,25.3632,-36.0577,-7.7285,-1.6121,-31.2835,-10.4114,-14.1894,-20.9438,38.2149,-36.594,-13.9593,-21.1929,-77.2636],"direction":[0.0,-45.4767,14.4602,-18.4429,-46.0851,0.0,-48.8042,-71.4216,15.2833,-41.1415,-49.3864,-37.2681,-59.4174,-51.5009,-50.0564,-53.4232,-51.6098,-56.4561,-51.0974,-31.5392,-23.631,-33.66,-46.1333,-52.8394,-51.5285,-37.4731,-24.7301,-11.9874,0.0,-25.3373,-29.8049,-33.509,-25.0135,0.0,0.0,-14.8221,0.0,-0.6114,0.0,4.0794,-35.2863,-35.8462,-24.5821,-43.4808,-37.8192,-41.5379,-47.3113,17.4438,-32.683,-25.0129,-21.8165,-2.0858],"intensity":[16.6667,100.0,75.0,11.1111,100.0,27.2727,41.6667,100.0,100.0,40.0,87.5,23.5294,94.4444,36.8421,20.0,19.0476,72.7273,4.3478,4.1667,36.0,7.6923,44.4444,25.0,58.6207,10.0,19.3548,6.25,15.1515,11.7647,5.7143,19.4444,13.5135,5.2632,10.2564,15.0,7.3171,2.381,20.9302,38.6364,17.7778,50.0,2.1277,8.3333,44.898,4.0,7.8431,17.3077,40.3846,30.7692,3.8462,7.6923,42.3077],"confirmation":[4.0383,52.596,32.6726,26.2123,86.447,28.4564,85.7329,92.2051,32.4983,76.4797,85.4211,81.3734,90.7162,7.7461,79.9224,86.7542,84.0401,82.2573,80.2092,32.1258,77.0135,78.9841,86.7015,78.4419,51.9762,29.2966,50.0478,27.4445,24.4739,79.7896,78.9883,75.6385,28.2523,3.7527,2.4891,77.7372,3.0191,49.2797,47.4529,49.8715,80.3245,52.685,49.694,80.7815,76.5771,77.6065,79.4738,30.4571,82.1219,77.189,78.4626,64.7274],"persistence":[42.8571,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[45.5815,38.5954,37.5625,30.4315,20.2776,2.1173,22.0831,12.3697,12.6133,28.5643,19.5953,8.9911,15.0156,42.3201,22.48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downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-29.6","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-27.5","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-77.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction 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its trend references are aligned downward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[0.7739,0.7274,0.7846,0.7924,0.7386,0.7388,0.7129,0.6551,0.7107,0.7016,0.6238,0.6549,0.6085,0.4772,0.6192,0.5755,0.4845,0.4599,0.3839,0.4308,0.398,0.3626,0.3248,0.3221,0.3274,0.3538,0.3439,0.3151,0.2827,0.2631,0.2597,0.2804,0.2808,0.2853,0.2774,0.2682,0.2596,0.2536,0.2586,0.2582,0.2598,0.2518,0.2566,0.2622,0.2533,0.259,0.2276,0.2282,0.2352,0.2118,0.2087,0.2039,0.1953,0.2109,0.1983,0.1996,0.1954,0.2104],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,0.7669,0.7618,0.7529,0.7351,0.7307,0.7254,0.7069,0.6975,0.6813,0.6442,0.6396,0.628,0.6019,0.5761,0.5411,0.5211,0.4987,0.474,0.4468,0.4242,0.4066,0.397,0.3873,0.3742,0.3576,0.3404,0.3257,0.3175,0.3108,0.3062,0.3009,0.295,0.2886,0.2822,0.2779,0.2743,0.2717,0.2681,0.266,0.2653,0.2631,0.2624,0.256,0.251,0.2481,0.2415,0.2355,0.2298,0.2235,0.2212,0.2171,0.2139,0.2105,0.2105],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow 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tape.","series":[{"label":"Drawdown","values":[0.0,-6.0085,0.0,0.0,-6.7895,-6.7643,-10.0328,-17.3271,-10.3104,-11.4589,-21.2771,-17.3523,-23.208,-39.7779,-21.8589,-27.3725,-38.8566,-41.9611,-51.5522,-45.6335,-49.7728,-54.2403,-59.0106,-59.3513,-58.6825,-55.3508,-56.6002,-60.2347,-64.3236,-66.7971,-67.2261,-64.6138,-64.5634,-63.9955,-64.9924,-66.1535,-67.2388,-67.996,-67.365,-67.4154,-67.2135,-68.2231,-67.6174,-66.9107,-68.0338,-67.3145,-71.2771,-71.2014,-70.318,-73.2711,-73.6623,-74.268,-75.3534,-73.3847,-74.9748,-74.8107,-75.3407,-73.4478],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9,"fill":"rgba(193,63,63,.10)"},{"label":"Recovery","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,8.4873,7.0982,0.0,4.9856,0.0,0.0,29.7548,20.5993,1.5298,0.0,0.0,12.2167,3.6728,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.6455,9.8417,6.7681,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,7.9707,8.1248,9.8575,6.8156,3.273,0.0,0.0,1.9716,1.8139,2.4448,0.0,1.9063,4.1303,0.5957,2.8594,0.0,0.2636,3.3392,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,7.9877,1.5361,2.2017,0.0512,7.7317],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Prior 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