{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BAS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"33a74238-f04e-427e-980f-8ecbb7aaa1c5","symbol":"BAS","name":"BASF SE","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Chemicals"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The upward price structure has improving support, but confirmation is not complete.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The upward price structure has improving support, but confirmation is not complete.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Repair in progress","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving but remains below zero","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The upward price structure has improving support, but confirmation is not complete.","take":"Continued repair would strengthen the upward case. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":3.6,"averageExpectedMove":7.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-2.2,"medianReturn":-5.0,"confidenceLow":15.2,"confidenceHigh":58.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-0.0,"medianReturn":-2.4,"confidenceLow":15.2,"confidenceHigh":58.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":12,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":41.7,"averageReturn":-2.1,"medianReturn":-1.0,"confidenceLow":19.3,"confidenceHigh":68.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":13},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":13},{"week":17,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":13},{"week":18,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":13},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":13},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":13},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":13},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":13},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":13},{"week":24,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":12},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":12},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":12}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":1},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving but remains below zero","use":"The repair supports the upward structure, but confirmation remains incomplete until Market Dynamics moves above zero.","confirm":"Continued repair would strengthen the upward case. Renewed weakness would leave price ahead of the underlying position.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is rising before Market Dynamics turns positive","detail":"The upward price structure is visible, but the underlying repair is not yet complete."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 6.8% across 23 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-29","price":50.82}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-08-07","price":51.5}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[40.9177,41.7369,39.5204,39.6888,41.8917,43.9489,43.908,43.0022,42.7747,42.0282,41.4684,39.4931,39.2746,38.7603,38.6146,40.021,40.6036,38.7239,38.8832,37.8045,37.7999,40.4534,42.7838,42.4288,43.2571,46.3521,44.5224,44.7955,48.819,47.8541,45.9698,43.1843,37.7817,37.0853,38.1868,40.8904,40.4079,41.4723,41.6161,39.7079,40.6572,40.1298,40.3887,39.775,41.1175,39.9668,41.549,40.7531,43.7736,40.0531,43.6106,44.2627,46.0846,43.4955,42.0093,42.0572,41.06,40.7435,42.4504,40.4654,41.712,41.923,41.0312,40.7723,41.6832,41.9901,43.0545,41.9325,42.9969,41.9613,41.8462,42.9394,43.0928,42.7572,44.2051,44.0709,46.1996,48.9804,46.8805,46.6983,43.4092,46.3626,44.1092,49.9585,48.8462,52.4516,50.601,52.0873,52.49,51.65,52.63,51.67,50.82,50.98,49.5,49.005,47.76,47.78,47.55,48.545,48.57,50.4,51.5,51.15],"consensus":[39.9635,39.9309,-34.8316,0.0,49.3001,62.1351,38.9486,9.5352,19.7871,-17.2133,-19.7894,-59.5491,-33.9438,-36.4096,-31.7025,20.3823,0.0,-43.6502,0.0,-49.5355,-35.3123,48.0703,62.5068,25.0475,47.9025,73.8414,0.0,32.1377,72.0492,17.0586,0.0,-40.2184,-70.3399,-35.2401,-23.0996,12.8903,-9.9967,22.7844,0.0,-35.6168,0.0,-19.7881,-8.9813,-23.5036,24.9522,-25.1303,28.0292,0.0,54.0139,-39.8337,51.9653,35.2414,53.5738,-9.4996,-28.9538,-9.5892,-38.4494,-19.8788,28.8584,-45.3416,18.8482,10.2488,-29.4872,-10.5885,8.1961,13.9258,38.7661,-11.4033,31.9983,-22.349,-14.2412,34.6139,16.9257,0.0,47.5571,17.541,57.6756,68.514,0.0,22.169,-48.2937,34.8428,-38.8231,66.0999,11.2155,70.6994,0.0,50.3139,45.3966,0.0,32.4894,0.0,0.0,0.0,-10.5771,-14.0828,-41.9023,-24.9335,-29.9975,0.0,0.0,36.642,41.9456,17.8346],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[59.1674,-24.6421,-33.1071,-4.8248,-38.0873,-13.1667,33.8829,-45.7084,20.7931,8.8749,-30.0904,-13.0959,8.9163,17.622,39.9438,-17.1183,32.5873,-28.1273,-15.1802,42.5211,20.8883,0.0,43.1839,15.2618,49.7978,64.0712,0.0,15.1269,-42.5093,42.778,-33.5323,60.9213,0.2181,72.6539,0.0,56.0432,49.2866,0.0,28.819,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.4443,-4.2922,-45.2792,-18.1014,-28.5626,0.0,0.0,33.2496,43.2267,13.9629],"force":[51.506,-41.9142,-43.7446,-7.222,-45.8948,-12.1478,50.4912,-66.0543,39.4381,14.3011,-39.0267,-6.3962,19.2198,21.0501,47.3375,-32.7139,41.5138,-43.6505,-15.6432,39.0231,12.8678,0.0,64.663,2.2011,77.1512,83.1202,0.0,3.4186,-84.9889,64.6616,-70.5908,95.9898,22.2983,83.2955,0.0,43.3968,27.976,0.0,23.2538,0.0,0.0,0.0,-9.3672,-6.8759,-33.6694,-8.9728,-15.3388,0.0,0.0,54.2692,42.396,2.5521],"direction":[48.6581,-30.9595,-13.6424,-16.7251,-33.5452,-33.0718,7.664,-30.1278,1.9184,8.9245,-21.9838,-10.7175,0.5012,4.6127,31.2977,-10.3498,24.5284,-0.5299,-12.1665,22.4275,15.2956,0.0,40.3365,31.1031,52.7677,63.1585,0.0,43.6102,-28.6936,4.4748,-22.1784,50.6685,47.7223,59.4685,0.0,48.7068,53.394,0.0,43.2811,0.0,0.0,0.0,-25.1802,-30.4199,-43.9235,-44.1423,-42.108,0.0,0.0,27.9283,40.1599,33.1754],"intensity":[50.0,75.0,69.2308,15.3846,15.3846,34.6154,51.9231,65.3846,26.9231,26.9231,11.5385,21.1538,44.2308,28.8462,55.7692,21.1538,13.4615,13.4615,25.0,23.0769,1.9231,28.8462,55.7692,59.6154,90.3846,82.6923,69.2308,51.9231,92.3077,86.5385,71.1538,98.0769,98.0769,94.2308,63.4615,51.9231,5.7692,55.7692,17.3077,32.6923,51.9231,3.8462,75.0,3.8462,38.4615,3.8462,1.9231,71.1538,9.6154,67.3077,69.2308,3.8462],"confirmation":[84.9954,33.0683,77.6527,25.7357,80.5362,74.2279,55.1507,83.135,51.9626,71.424,77.7174,48.5557,48.388,49.9504,80.6484,29.0861,78.5205,53.0461,72.5856,79.0903,73.2322,27.6039,83.8062,50.5137,87.1698,90.4373,34.5466,51.9633,84.6605,57.2709,81.4722,90.1418,7.4921,90.9779,9.9857,83.8023,81.9367,6.255,78.1711,4.8366,25.7238,1.4596,49.1725,27.1027,81.1064,75.5964,77.1743,28.1529,1.3936,80.3143,81.4168,36.4562],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[15.6881,51.6071,18.1748,34.7743,30.0119,33.7925,3.8637,9.4332,5.5737,22.1174,20.0125,16.7621,5.1802,4.1865,28.4508,46.2384,26.1539,9.8299,33.5004,20.8263,2.6229,40.748,25.8308,35.636,21.0369,15.7415,48.4562,37.0894,22.9265,62.6252,25.8369,10.8527,43.2795,13.7969,45.8982,8.216,21.3932,15.5875,16.9139,9.1837,25.4581,15.2556,39.0823,35.5091,27.6397,36.4591,33.4928,25.5079,40.7012,31.311,28.9983,40.718],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":17.8,"control":14.0,"force":2.6,"direction":33.2,"confirmation":36.5,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":40.7,"intensity":3.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+17.8","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+14.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+2.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+33.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"36/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.6","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.6%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"23.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"74%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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