{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CAT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"34c3dd22-0ba3-4bdd-bd86-9b6b886545d5","symbol":"CAT","name":"Caterpillar Inc.","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CHF","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":12,"completedEpisodes":11,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":12.4,"averageExpectedMove":18.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":12,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":5.3,"medianReturn":4.1,"confidenceLow":46.8,"confidenceHigh":91.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":11,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":81.8,"averageReturn":15.3,"medianReturn":8.3,"confidenceLow":52.3,"confidenceHigh":94.9,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":10,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":80.0,"averageReturn":24.6,"medianReturn":19.1,"confidenceLow":49.0,"confidenceHigh":94.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":12},{"week":3,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":12},{"week":4,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":12},{"week":5,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":11},{"week":6,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":11},{"week":7,"averageReturn":8.3,"sample":11},{"week":8,"averageReturn":9.2,"sample":11},{"week":9,"averageReturn":10.8,"sample":11},{"week":10,"averageReturn":12.8,"sample":11},{"week":11,"averageReturn":13.8,"sample":11},{"week":12,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":11},{"week":13,"averageReturn":15.8,"sample":11},{"week":14,"averageReturn":16.8,"sample":11},{"week":15,"averageReturn":18.2,"sample":11},{"week":16,"averageReturn":19.0,"sample":11},{"week":17,"averageReturn":20.3,"sample":11},{"week":18,"averageReturn":19.0,"sample":11},{"week":19,"averageReturn":19.7,"sample":11},{"week":20,"averageReturn":18.8,"sample":11},{"week":21,"averageReturn":21.4,"sample":11},{"week":22,"averageReturn":20.6,"sample":11},{"week":23,"averageReturn":18.5,"sample":10},{"week":24,"averageReturn":17.1,"sample":10},{"week":25,"averageReturn":17.5,"sample":10},{"week":26,"averageReturn":24.6,"sample":10}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.4,"medianReturn":-11.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-21.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-13.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":1},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":12},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.7% across 12 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 87.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.7% across 12 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-02-16","price":280.18866}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":708.969971}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":824.903442}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2023-06-16","2023-06-23","2023-06-30","2023-07-07","2023-07-14","2023-07-21","2023-07-28","2023-08-04","2023-08-11","2023-08-18","2023-08-25","2023-09-01","2023-09-08","2023-09-15","2023-09-22","2023-09-29","2023-10-06","2023-10-13","2023-10-20","2023-10-27","2023-11-03","2023-11-10","2023-11-17","2023-11-24","2023-12-01","2023-12-08","2023-12-15","2023-12-22","2023-12-29","2024-01-05","2024-01-12","2024-01-19","2024-01-26","2024-02-02","2024-02-09","2024-02-16","2024-02-23","2024-03-01","2024-03-08","2024-03-15","2024-03-22","2024-03-29","2024-04-05","2024-04-12","2024-04-19","2024-04-26","2024-05-03","2024-05-10","2024-05-17","2024-05-24","2024-05-31","2024-06-07","2024-06-14","2024-06-21","2024-06-28","2024-07-05","2024-07-12","2024-07-19","2024-07-26","2024-08-02","2024-08-09","2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[201.9819,201.9819,201.9819,201.9819,201.9819,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,203.2401,204.5061,208.4014,208.4014,208.4014,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,212.2968,213.5704,213.5704,213.5704,213.5704,280.1887,278.2293,278.2293,278.2293,293.9041,305.6603,305.6603,305.6603,305.6603,306.9392,306.9392,303.0041,304.9717,304.9717,304.9717,308.9068,308.9068,253.8151,253.8151,253.8151,253.8151,253.8151,253.8151,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,255.2099,256.6123,487.7523,516.8649,501.0938,500.8843,549.4745,594.2241,591.8998,571.7495,559.4998,551.6092,541.554,561.2454,576.2983,622.1652,612.08,652.75,690.45,703.59,703.59,693.63,712.01,734.09,722.56,786.2723,824.9034,782.6008,768.5331,708.97,730.6,648.4,710.3,698.0],"consensus":[-53.3237,-53.116,-52.723,-40.7531,-40.2443,0.0,-29.1694,-28.1817,-27.1507,-35.3382,-34.4854,-33.5035,-32.3678,-31.0601,-29.5739,-27.918,-26.1179,-24.2131,58.2967,88.3174,47.3511,47.8414,69.5662,51.4687,51.2551,50.843,38.8135,38.1914,37.4774,36.654,35.6924,90.2149,47.7173,46.8595,45.7719,85.1713,30.2116,55.1319,54.9657,97.6242,86.6291,52.7351,52.315,51.6585,62.6533,43.6297,0.0,56.3442,28.4069,25.4284,69.4088,36.1186,-80.7729,-51.098,-51.277,-51.0481,-39.158,-38.6951,-28.4375,-33.1867,-32.3364,-31.4225,-35.0038,-34.2259,-33.3495,-32.3575,-31.2354,-29.9743,-28.5731,-27.0398,-25.392,8.2347,84.5803,94.8433,21.9737,74.9102,94.5677,95.4945,36.7362,16.0807,27.1165,32.1581,0.0,58.1289,72.7543,86.3009,31.1733,80.3507,85.9634,60.1458,45.1109,53.718,46.4276,54.0397,28.3853,61.7557,61.525,23.5073,27.9254,-54.6136,20.2306,-73.787,18.2504,-4.426],"supportDates":["2024-06-14","2024-06-21","2024-06-28","2024-07-05","2024-07-12","2024-07-19","2024-07-26","2024-08-02","2024-08-09","2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-66.3217,-39.6593,-39.1563,-38.6498,-38.143,-37.6376,-29.7921,-35.9459,-35.4167,-34.8637,-34.277,-33.6466,-32.9627,-32.2173,-31.4044,-30.5209,-29.5669,-28.5458,-27.464,3.2795,70.0003,95.5506,1.7729,71.4953,95.1351,96.1226,15.6705,7.7255,15.5272,49.2078,0.0,76.1242,80.2681,92.1778,23.3099,86.1724,91.6621,55.8139,37.9913,55.2837,42.6151,52.7937,25.5698,59.8593,58.4747,15.3037,22.091,-45.9805,40.5841,-63.7105,37.3751,-5.7011],"force":[-100.0,-18.0,-18.0,-18.0,-0.0,-0.0,-16.9734,-5.8463,-6.2601,-6.6975,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,-0.0,36.5096,100.0,93.415,41.9727,53.8945,94.5992,96.5324,8.8581,48.3139,19.6291,5.7421,0.0,53.3665,76.8871,97.6909,6.6588,84.8794,94.6459,48.3967,17.9839,33.6029,33.2031,42.2151,5.158,55.3289,51.6548,17.4215,1.1079,-97.0359,37.053,-99.1597,53.6678,-11.2591],"direction":[-83.5549,-87.8123,-88.8985,-88.8233,-68.288,-67.5429,-59.3257,-57.914,-56.3851,-54.7183,-60.8371,-59.3349,-57.6127,-55.6302,-53.3533,-50.76,-47.8467,-44.6327,-41.161,6.2986,90.2291,95.0552,94.7886,93.8241,93.8966,94.0352,93.3786,89.2839,73.7511,39.7444,0.0,40.9645,61.2151,71.4488,67.1829,70.4624,73.2489,73.4887,72.6241,66.2964,60.2309,63.9099,55.5624,68.5134,72.0612,62.1177,55.3313,-34.1783,15.0465,-67.1795,28.9045,-27.2034],"intensity":[96.1538,96.1538,55.7692,55.7692,55.7692,57.6923,69.2308,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,57.6923,59.6154,71.1538,100.0,100.0,88.4615,82.6923,88.4615,86.5385,84.6154,82.6923,80.7692,80.7692,67.3077,80.7692,67.3077,86.5385,80.7692,84.6154,84.6154,86.5385,59.6154,76.9231,84.6154,76.9231,55.7692,96.1538,78.8462,82.6923,51.9231,94.2308,67.3077,96.1538,92.3077,53.8462],"confirmation":[94.6535,83.517,83.5792,83.5171,56.686,56.5526,33.9831,55.9687,55.7933,55.6031,55.4788,55.2514,54.9947,54.7037,54.3742,54.0033,53.5908,53.139,52.6533,27.5827,95.7578,98.2955,14.777,91.3828,98.254,98.5803,35.2434,15.5011,34.2835,55.4341,10.9124,86.1819,91.2928,95.8739,55.6962,93.7615,95.6861,86.9546,81.7173,84.5529,82.5119,84.9513,54.5376,87.5948,87.4337,32.7832,53.7099,86.9008,32.5529,92.5386,35.4611,4.7108],"persistence":[62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[9.4831,24.3495,24.3018,24.4162,19.579,19.3475,18.9017,21.2645,20.8544,20.3975,17.5019,17.1129,16.6748,16.1788,15.6177,14.9872,14.2865,13.5199,12.696,45.8277,7.6575,2.5585,38.9775,12.5074,9.3515,5.3781,26.5308,32.423,5.7225,45.2942,29.4999,37.232,23.4435,6.568,34.137,9.768,7.0069,19.8391,27.4263,20.9039,16.208,18.9526,23.2289,19.0957,19.2318,35.0206,32.3645,21.7003,59.8139,13.0104,53.1566,10.4477],"volumeParticipation":false,"latest":{"consensus":-4.4,"control":-5.7,"force":-11.3,"direction":-27.2,"confirmation":4.7,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":10.4,"intensity":53.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-4.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-5.7","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-11.3","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-27.2","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"5/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"56.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.1%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"43.8","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"56%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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