{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MGR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"34fb3eac-3adf-43f8-ad17-ad8e22a92cab","symbol":"MGR","name":"Mirvac Group","exchange":"ASX","country":"AU","asset_type":"equity","currency":"AUD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Reit - Diversified"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":22,"completedEpisodes":20,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":5.5,"averageExpectedMove":6.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":57.1,"averageReturn":0.2,"medianReturn":0.4,"confidenceLow":36.5,"confidenceHigh":75.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":20,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":78.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":45.0,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-1.6,"confidenceLow":25.8,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":10.5,"averageExpectedMove":10.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-4.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.7,"medianReturn":-9.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.9,"medianReturn":-18.9,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-11.8,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-15.7,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-13.3,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-17.4,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-21.8,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":60.0,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 60.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.1% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.6% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-07-03","price":1.71}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-08-22","price":2.325961},{"date":"2025-10-17","price":2.335734}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1.8575,1.9089,2.0212,2.0961,2.1054,2.0587,2.0587,2.0587,2.0399,2.068,2.0119,1.9651,1.9744,1.9744,2.0212,2.0025,1.8668,1.7686,1.8481,1.8146,1.7907,1.8529,1.8625,1.8912,1.8673,2.0205,2.0205,1.9822,1.9822,1.9918,2.0396,2.0396,2.0396,2.0396,2.0779,2.1067,2.2024,2.2407,2.1641,2.1737,2.212,2.2024,2.2694,2.1641,2.15,2.2087,2.111,2.1989,2.1598,2.1891,2.2478,2.238,2.326,2.3064,2.2869,2.3162,2.2771,2.2185,2.2576,2.2478,2.3357,2.3651,2.2478,2.238,2.1891,2.1598,2.111,1.9839,2.0035,2.023,2.0425,2.04,2.02,2.02,2.0,2.0,1.94,1.905,2.0,2.05,1.9,1.83,1.795,1.77,1.705,1.73,1.78,1.73,1.705,1.7,1.725,1.685,1.6446,1.6251,1.7224,1.7175,1.737,1.71,1.705,1.74,1.695,1.79,1.81,1.77],"consensus":[0.0,22.1577,61.1419,59.0022,33.3573,12.418,22.6288,13.8355,0.0,20.3446,-20.1157,-27.486,-11.3173,-16.7512,14.2809,-8.3001,-62.7905,-68.6382,0.0,-44.2317,-40.988,20.8874,0.0,10.1442,0.0,62.0519,19.6608,0.0,10.8927,9.8781,35.8539,19.8783,22.9358,21.4781,35.155,38.1653,67.6959,52.4806,0.0,24.4969,37.3677,8.8657,48.8378,-26.6903,0.0,30.5237,-47.1324,37.2835,-14.9733,11.9638,43.0913,12.1576,55.0466,14.0071,11.1862,36.3298,-11.2558,-32.0482,13.8399,-12.1487,45.3687,37.835,-37.7798,0.0,-37.8872,-42.5934,-48.1189,-72.7901,-23.4703,-20.5669,-15.8735,-14.7494,-24.8316,-22.0441,-39.3373,-17.2321,-60.1,-52.1391,22.3463,32.8508,-58.5841,-55.3257,-56.6874,-44.2554,-66.7656,-28.3461,0.0,-50.336,-34.9855,-35.4379,0.0,-38.3785,-40.9418,-30.8732,14.9256,0.0,17.2534,-9.9991,0.0,28.8533,-31.8953,48.8456,36.5851,4.5978],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[52.4621,4.7137,8.8218,36.1931,-7.31,-30.7815,21.3266,-7.7162,46.1838,35.5315,-38.4017,0.0,-33.741,-41.7884,-43.1047,-70.1597,-12.8072,-12.9437,-6.0993,-22.1057,-29.026,-25.8699,-44.9165,-11.6496,-62.0203,-52.4061,22.5151,32.8946,-63.969,-60.0715,-60.9477,-40.4693,-68.4593,-26.0562,0.0,-56.019,-41.5273,-42.7774,0.0,-39.4919,-46.5904,-25.9467,22.9017,0.0,11.9109,-27.8711,0.0,30.0552,-36.1522,42.2588,31.3049,15.2315],"force":[66.7402,11.6636,6.8473,35.6877,-35.9201,-46.2276,25.0449,-17.884,62.2887,33.2581,-75.7885,0.0,-41.2464,-37.8396,-52.9262,-90.3198,-11.2825,-15.2247,-8.1737,-4.5983,-13.0681,-5.0222,-29.5026,-1.2719,-69.5032,-46.3739,70.9809,55.6409,-76.7512,-53.3416,-45.6056,-27.0767,-68.4447,-6.4751,0.0,-52.2267,-23.6508,-17.1327,0.0,-35.4953,-25.0246,-14.8289,32.0713,0.0,20.8888,-10.5514,0.0,44.066,-43.962,66.3776,26.5136,28.9326],"direction":[49.6477,42.9644,26.7695,36.9447,-1.852,-23.3677,2.7199,-13.1179,32.3515,43.7367,-9.9201,0.0,-40.2264,-46.9091,-50.4157,-63.2752,-60.4802,-54.8445,-44.2204,-20.162,-28.4404,-29.8302,-39.9859,-36.8291,-51.1887,-55.952,12.5856,16.5221,-39.4535,-51.3193,-59.7341,-60.853,-63.6308,-55.8355,0.0,-42.4905,-35.6054,-40.1251,0.0,-39.1656,-45.8557,-47.9639,6.4371,0.0,20.7624,-10.8207,0.0,16.6135,-18.4111,43.8506,49.8137,24.9369],"intensity":[73.0769,46.1538,55.7692,30.7692,30.7692,57.6923,34.6154,13.4615,78.8462,71.1538,88.4615,96.1538,44.2308,50.0,53.8462,90.3846,84.6154,15.3846,28.8462,1.9231,13.4615,3.8462,9.6154,34.6154,53.8462,50.0,82.6923,51.9231,100.0,96.1538,19.2308,48.0769,59.6154,11.5385,46.1538,46.1538,69.2308,15.3846,53.8462,34.6154,53.8462,69.2308,96.1538,1.9231,11.5385,17.3077,21.1538,28.8462,44.2308,86.5385,59.6154,40.3846],"confirmation":[86.0107,6.3298,49.8601,79.6081,27.4754,78.7069,50.5697,49.4633,83.0212,80.0028,81.2384,24.4029,80.2895,81.4973,83.621,91.8672,31.6874,31.5214,6.2393,50.3324,75.5237,51.8104,80.2032,50.6401,87.4893,84.5048,33.982,79.2061,87.2185,85.5715,85.7373,81.6959,89.3904,54.7591,32.6134,84.0785,78.7502,78.6704,6.1867,80.1763,80.5302,77.4655,51.8838,24.5929,73.7133,27.9193,24.9913,77.6784,78.5094,84.2653,79.4808,30.0374],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[22.0092,40.773,22.238,24.9013,30.6437,29.8559,31.4221,38.9011,19.8646,30.9459,10.3335,6.1975,30.5325,28.6785,25.5056,13.5879,38.1002,38.7665,33.242,45.2185,26.6078,7.9226,16.8137,30.3472,18.2026,23.649,11.1732,21.1285,1.5153,15.4742,21.5816,27.8678,16.5126,32.6684,14.7728,3.2806,17.4928,5.1248,32.1167,15.241,21.7803,33.2434,10.4105,29.0412,39.976,53.542,20.492,11.9146,24.2244,22.748,30.7524,30.6223],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":4.6,"control":15.2,"force":28.9,"direction":24.9,"confirmation":30.0,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":30.6,"intensity":40.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+4.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+15.2","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+28.9","detail":"Upward 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