{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"PAXS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"35c6d0e9-fc43-489b-a84b-c38149b03494","symbol":"PAXS","name":"PIMCO Access Income Fund","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":14,"completedEpisodes":12,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":2.6,"averageExpectedMove":3.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":13,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":38.5,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-2.1,"confidenceLow":17.7,"confidenceHigh":64.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":12,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":41.7,"averageReturn":-0.8,"medianReturn":-1.0,"confidenceLow":19.3,"confidenceHigh":68.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":11,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":81.8,"averageReturn":7.0,"medianReturn":6.8,"confidenceLow":52.3,"confidenceHigh":94.9,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":14},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":14},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":14},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":13},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":13},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":13},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":13},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":12},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":12},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":12},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":12},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":12},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":12},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":12},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":12},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":12},{"week":20,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":12},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":12},{"week":22,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":12},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":12},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":12},{"week":25,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":12},{"week":26,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":11}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.9,"averageExpectedMove":6.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-1.4,"medianReturn":-1.4,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-2.9,"medianReturn":-2.9,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.7,"medianReturn":-3.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":14.3,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 14.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.9% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 75.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 2.5% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-10-17","price":14.614554},{"date":"2025-12-05","price":14.790486},{"date":"2026-03-06","price":14.247586}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-11-28","price":14.949022},{"date":"2026-01-09","price":14.904984}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[12.6051,12.8316,13.0986,13.3408,13.3816,13.5613,13.9042,13.7486,13.5591,13.2214,12.9989,13.4685,13.2364,13.7768,14.0263,13.6355,13.2185,13.0087,12.9248,13.2773,13.1262,13.203,13.4742,13.6521,13.8132,13.7871,13.8298,13.864,13.7358,13.6076,13.8407,13.8062,12.9428,12.7609,13.0837,13.3453,13.4936,13.2319,13.406,12.948,13.2299,13.3091,13.2817,13.4062,13.4863,13.4774,13.5569,13.5659,13.6827,14.051,14.0798,14.1218,14.3395,14.5844,14.6842,14.8832,14.8099,14.7459,15.0113,14.8832,14.6146,14.6053,14.7531,14.6977,14.6879,14.5387,14.949,14.7905,14.4719,14.5189,14.4907,14.406,14.905,15.0743,15.1408,15.2263,14.9317,15.1878,14.9672,14.9,14.2476,14.0147,13.3944,13.3847,14.0147,14.0438,14.4741,14.3468,14.4448,14.2783,13.7642,13.8928,14.2985,14.0709,13.9463,13.9958,14.1839,14.5204,14.4398,14.3312,13.8858,14.0145,14.1828,14.27],"consensus":[14.4109,55.1609,61.61,61.5955,38.5423,55.8806,68.3136,22.4273,10.0766,-28.5397,-37.8788,38.713,-24.902,59.5001,54.7117,-17.1847,-37.3574,-40.9918,-38.8792,23.0694,-25.7456,8.043,33.9497,39.4887,45.6548,23.6754,23.318,29.8541,-9.1052,-13.3613,36.0444,0.0,-61.2226,-31.6526,-9.6572,0.0,23.1462,-19.3488,13.9651,-54.884,17.2522,0.0,-10.2715,22.1554,22.7278,13.3993,32.3255,20.0608,34.0341,67.6707,31.8167,27.9386,63.6468,69.6003,55.6114,63.9629,32.2245,19.4413,65.7005,0.0,-20.3093,0.0,22.3355,0.0,0.0,-15.6189,50.6903,-11.5085,-43.2506,-8.7521,-26.2649,-32.7258,59.1968,49.3389,44.0705,43.9892,-18.9755,41.517,-22.208,-10.6804,-67.5052,-53.7463,-77.6395,-50.1902,10.6628,-9.3699,41.6745,0.0,20.4151,-16.1228,-57.8138,0.0,28.708,-33.1536,-13.3571,0.0,18.4142,48.1947,21.9588,0.0,-50.3716,0.0,13.4132,11.2827],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[68.927,75.7124,56.9557,64.7299,27.5644,12.2383,70.8804,0.0,-20.9852,0.0,29.7264,0.0,0.0,-13.8467,55.0065,-18.2745,-42.4921,-10.4841,-23.0337,-26.1244,57.6725,42.9734,46.6751,44.5725,-21.2091,46.2417,-23.0281,-2.653,-60.0086,-46.6325,-75.0039,-50.9777,20.8238,-9.0443,39.7915,0.0,17.7893,-24.4633,-53.9217,0.0,39.638,-34.4036,-18.7833,0.0,26.4335,50.3225,19.1717,0.0,-51.4725,0.0,22.3344,14.008],"force":[57.4534,65.9816,37.9967,55.1908,5.4304,14.2201,63.3168,0.0,-55.4055,0.0,32.6945,0.0,0.0,-26.9511,69.8025,-38.3296,-66.1645,-1.6552,-22.5568,-36.8283,93.1163,64.9185,34.3221,33.3174,-57.8911,47.6685,-48.6851,-17.1563,-96.0704,-55.1838,-95.0129,-24.0949,58.7128,-5.9639,65.5669,0.0,23.3184,-32.7367,-78.7156,0.0,52.2903,-52.1699,-11.5497,0.0,33.8369,56.8788,7.6653,0.0,-72.5577,0.0,31.1858,15.1774],"direction":[62.036,65.1999,66.657,69.3522,64.4467,51.7172,61.4832,0.0,-5.532,0.0,6.4896,0.0,0.0,-9.55,32.106,-15.382,-27.7504,-14.2064,-32.6063,-37.3399,36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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+11.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+14.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+15.2","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+5.4","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"49/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.8%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"16.0","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"49%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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