{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MSCI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"36def596-a1e4-4e74-916b-8fc6a50926a4","symbol":"MSCI","name":"MSCI Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Financial Data & Stock Exchanges"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":20,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":7.5,"averageExpectedMove":7.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":63.2,"averageReturn":2.0,"medianReturn":3.0,"confidenceLow":41.0,"confidenceHigh":80.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":44.4,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":-0.5,"confidenceLow":24.6,"confidenceHigh":66.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":64.7,"averageReturn":2.0,"medianReturn":3.1,"confidenceLow":41.3,"confidenceHigh":82.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":18},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":18},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":18},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.1,"medianReturn":-9.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-10.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":45.0,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 45.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.4% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.3% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-24","price":548.813181}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":626.403701}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[558.2538,567.4409,547.1706,549.2035,538.9218,563.1015,576.3642,591.8747,594.2497,575.3868,564.8607,580.5472,581.9742,577.77,597.4285,604.8274,612.5889,592.6952,597.3893,589.4416,564.207,599.7707,608.2966,584.8259,567.7938,562.933,568.5463,580.5103,552.3749,545.3165,553.0336,549.0128,498.847,532.5268,537.6289,526.2942,546.4077,547.1352,564.2995,550.9371,556.213,560.7691,535.2177,537.2393,568.4315,579.6047,557.7317,569.9403,538.7284,549.6846,539.113,551.085,568.7052,561.671,549.2349,577.0355,553.7859,559.3955,554.152,541.1223,528.6565,536.5119,582.279,576.6398,560.9092,557.7729,559.4899,534.221,546.9547,564.0157,580.6003,561.0084,576.799,598.0583,585.3345,604.6485,553.5945,524.1471,542.1315,569.7507,567.1701,545.9077,550.6205,521.4968,542.7991,534.5292,566.4826,590.5348,586.7088,583.2913,561.72,588.55,631.38,615.46,599.12,581.19,554.85,603.11,602.5397,626.4037,548.8132,570.1862,561.1487,569.13],"consensus":[53.5202,46.7808,0.0,23.5352,-14.2008,49.6386,51.8592,58.5482,35.8165,0.0,-17.1435,34.9942,0.0,0.0,52.088,43.6751,36.2576,-11.1339,20.8178,0.0,-52.1325,43.6225,37.0386,-28.4952,-35.1537,-32.6647,0.0,18.9809,-51.2579,-24.3112,-10.8561,-35.5734,-72.4928,14.7399,-16.2575,-30.8968,28.9883,0.0,33.3171,-10.1076,12.8545,24.2422,-45.6327,-15.5206,49.995,43.1017,-16.9797,36.4531,-46.8763,0.0,-32.7043,0.0,40.9641,0.0,-14.5524,53.686,-35.1281,8.6111,0.0,-39.8689,-40.4001,0.0,59.7248,21.6376,-11.1727,0.0,0.0,-52.064,9.8333,35.061,47.1338,-13.226,38.173,55.1306,0.0,50.6753,-51.4986,-55.8607,0.0,23.6041,0.0,-21.7345,0.0,-52.6721,8.1561,-26.6787,40.4084,45.8972,15.7581,19.1285,-23.483,36.8838,64.2625,0.0,0.0,-23.5189,-49.1492,39.3146,11.2082,43.5276,-54.0038,0.0,-34.5134,-5.0007],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[38.8858,0.0,-19.9791,50.926,-29.2327,10.3254,0.0,-39.4465,-39.0267,0.0,55.0325,18.9864,-24.8888,0.0,0.0,-46.7813,16.6381,36.307,54.3289,-28.3977,35.3419,58.5523,0.0,45.0378,-46.5546,-45.4738,0.0,34.9469,0.0,-30.0119,0.0,-52.6095,21.8757,-27.8451,43.0629,37.257,6.5441,13.0709,-25.1392,43.1939,62.5267,0.0,0.0,-27.5538,-40.3287,46.9735,12.3139,40.982,-54.4794,0.0,-34.9612,-5.5408],"force":[56.1724,0.0,-28.0364,80.4001,-76.0668,15.4309,0.0,-48.967,-43.2128,0.0,91.6563,0.7313,-35.6047,0.0,0.0,-75.4881,38.8607,59.881,46.7068,-34.7785,45.679,56.7993,0.0,59.3424,-91.0672,-79.533,0.0,52.1834,0.0,-32.6413,0.0,-60.7346,32.4671,-28.3345,62.9644,60.1998,4.3034,3.1236,-48.5165,50.5194,80.5988,0.0,0.0,-43.6206,-75.9199,66.6902,1.1592,46.5451,-88.6823,0.0,-35.4026,-11.5519],"direction":[32.4761,0.0,-1.281,37.7588,-12.6238,1.7806,0.0,-33.8531,-39.9607,0.0,42.279,39.6007,-21.9542,0.0,0.0,-41.3698,18.6776,15.9084,39.2158,-19.5077,36.0471,50.0283,0.0,50.9275,-28.8856,-50.8225,0.0,9.7728,0.0,-4.4841,0.0,-46.9847,24.8883,-24.1629,21.2633,45.5557,40.618,37.4836,-3.7092,19.9327,54.5774,0.0,0.0,-4.5494,-40.1079,11.0076,17.1226,44.2815,-28.6898,0.0,-33.3667,-28.8714],"intensity":[46.1538,7.6923,32.6923,73.0769,63.4615,25.0,15.3846,30.7692,57.6923,13.4615,96.1538,67.3077,40.3846,51.9231,7.6923,71.1538,30.7692,55.7692,51.9231,55.7692,40.3846,63.4615,28.8462,73.0769,98.0769,100.0,51.9231,76.9231,61.5385,65.3846,17.3077,82.6923,65.3846,59.6154,92.3077,96.1538,82.6923,32.6923,65.3846,76.9231,92.3077,90.3846,86.5385,38.4615,90.3846,96.1538,88.4615,65.3846,100.0,84.6154,7.6923,5.7692],"confirmation":[81.6037,4.1876,50.5916,86.0357,80.5785,48.2706,47.3891,81.0418,81.0347,6.0625,88.1566,51.6606,31.4611,24.4808,2.3596,85.4549,30.5788,79.9569,82.9602,31.4863,80.4873,85.6405,5.3823,84.5662,85.7608,86.7551,31.0264,33.003,25.1217,52.4946,24.947,85.1017,31.118,76.5699,81.5777,83.2547,28.1563,51.059,53.5856,80.1222,89.0883,8.9695,5.7979,53.4105,84.678,81.2983,48.5969,82.0596,86.3308,5.8041,79.0646,4.9028],"persistence":[0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[26.2567,29.6335,32.7024,17.8252,14.7799,10.7919,16.8409,28.7993,25.4642,44.4297,15.4382,37.0889,52.401,38.4568,42.7077,22.7909,37.7056,0.2838,17.8673,51.2626,27.0198,19.895,8.6566,24.2666,14.2283,21.944,47.213,56.5786,22.6479,47.2645,19.2247,22.0165,42.3877,9.0316,8.1713,26.6184,39.3013,39.6208,0.2602,23.36,16.2216,42.1794,43.9129,3.8127,25.3123,42.3205,1.1806,25.8135,17.6984,37.645,25.3295,44.6817],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-5.0,"control":-5.5,"force":-11.6,"direction":-28.9,"confirmation":4.9,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":44.7,"intensity":5.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-5.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-5.5","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-11.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-28.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"5/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"48.8","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.8%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"11.0","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"44%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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