{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"NCKL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"38c2bf3c-d1e1-45fe-a5ed-9b11f9fd3425","symbol":"NCKL","name":"PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk","exchange":"JKT","country":"ID","asset_type":"equity","currency":"IDR","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Other Industrial Metals & Mining"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":6,"completedEpisodes":6,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":7.4,"averageExpectedMove":19.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":6,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-2.3,"medianReturn":-2.6,"confidenceLow":9.7,"confidenceHigh":70.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":6,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":5.8,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":9.7,"confidenceHigh":70.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":5,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":20.0,"averageReturn":4.2,"medianReturn":-9.3,"confidenceLow":3.6,"confidenceHigh":62.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.0,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-15.8,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-20.5,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-19.4,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-22.9,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-26.5,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-26.6,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-24.3,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-33.1,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-34.3,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-40.2,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-37.4,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-43.1,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-43.4,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-47.0,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-44.3,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-43.5,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-44.7,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-41.9,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-40.9,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-39.9,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-42.2,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":33.3,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":6},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 33.3% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 5.8% across 6 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 75.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 19.6% across 6 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-23","price":705.703552},{"date":"2025-06-06","price":686.630493},{"date":"2025-07-18","price":675.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-01-23","price":1470.0},{"date":"2026-02-20","price":1475.0}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[877.3612,872.5929,867.8246,848.7516,824.9102,848.7516,858.2881,872.5929,877.3612,872.5929,863.0564,843.9833,839.215,820.142,796.3007,791.5323,791.5323,786.7641,715.2401,724.7766,739.0814,696.167,710.4718,672.3257,672.3257,638.9478,600.8017,634.1796,567.4238,681.8622,629.4113,619.8748,658.0209,572.1921,605.5699,662.7891,658.0209,638.9478,658.0209,705.7036,667.5574,686.6305,667.5574,643.7161,624.643,665.0,655.0,675.0,695.0,815.0,1000.0,965.0,1000.0,1030.0,1030.0,1090.0,1080.0,1180.0,1150.0,1145.0,1220.0,1245.0,1250.0,1125.0,1030.0,970.0,1045.0,1020.0,965.0,1050.0,1110.0,1165.0,1300.0,1420.0,1470.0,1375.0,1300.0,1450.0,1475.0,1540.0,1360.0,1195.0,1145.0,1155.0,1120.0,1145.0,1230.0,1115.0,1045.0,1015.0,1000.0,855.0,890.0,744.4274,844.0005,820.2926,777.6184,815.551,795.0,845.0,850.0,895.0,945.0,925.0],"consensus":[0.0,0.0,-20.7627,-25.0153,-40.794,0.0,0.0,15.155,17.25,0.0,-9.3518,-28.9137,-17.4975,-33.6607,-39.6841,-37.0477,-23.685,-27.6652,-70.6056,-25.1187,-18.7665,-59.5086,-12.5724,-61.4095,-25.8043,-58.1757,-64.6311,0.0,-70.781,42.3081,-36.4586,-25.9143,27.3963,-45.1556,0.0,39.5902,0.0,-9.9816,15.1075,52.1625,-21.6026,25.5578,-9.1253,-33.2868,-25.8971,18.6273,-12.3734,25.3576,33.1343,73.3052,83.0808,11.7224,58.8188,55.9745,39.975,59.2253,32.2906,71.0031,25.2697,30.7007,64.488,36.7127,28.1098,-27.6722,-46.2225,-48.0805,10.0625,-27.623,-40.8522,27.7985,28.4495,39.567,57.9379,62.6952,59.3895,0.0,0.0,50.0293,23.0969,47.6771,-22.6751,-51.0765,-34.9085,-28.0805,-33.7734,-13.8329,27.029,-44.7217,-45.0822,-39.5195,-42.7826,-64.7702,-23.5372,-66.0331,0.0,-43.4827,-37.5589,0.0,-30.7031,8.4881,0.0,21.7184,33.5398,4.8441],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[55.2784,44.1222,42.2206,46.4845,28.3447,66.1756,17.8056,29.5741,58.2521,33.2664,20.1828,-26.8139,-45.5073,-46.3066,26.7325,-25.2193,-41.9639,27.1247,28.0426,41.4478,48.1903,55.481,62.9291,0.0,0.0,54.9609,25.4309,44.575,-25.7044,-47.3195,-30.9988,-22.4851,-28.9337,-10.4795,27.6909,-48.8051,-50.5468,-39.5303,-43.8662,-58.5906,-16.0457,-76.1118,0.0,-52.4187,-36.2644,0.0,-33.1904,11.0459,0.0,19.2128,27.6773,2.1713],"force":[44.6036,51.9493,13.7624,67.5824,1.4046,83.3094,13.8582,4.1488,79.7257,18.6959,5.7872,-78.7403,-63.34,-50.7899,39.7614,-23.75,-39.8453,57.8793,39.1394,37.8878,79.5941,78.9575,50.8039,0.0,0.0,61.1969,4.4649,47.7668,-69.6785,-72.1638,-23.1397,-11.4693,-21.4699,-4.365,58.7864,-56.872,-39.8192,-26.3905,-26.7057,-78.583,-8.5763,-50.9564,0.0,-30.7498,-17.7754,0.0,-12.7797,38.5237,0.0,39.654,44.6961,8.3247],"direction":[73.0185,72.3953,56.132,67.8168,60.8681,67.73,61.7486,50.9539,60.7306,53.5205,53.114,-7.8242,-34.8132,-48.1726,30.2025,-33.1366,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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+4.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+2.2","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+8.3","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM 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