{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GUG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"398a8722-1712-4104-8f63-97aca05b6c99","symbol":"GUG","name":"Guggenheim Active Allocation Fund","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":247,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","headline":"Market Dynamics is weaker than the current price position","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","take":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":23,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":4,"medianExpectedMove":4.7,"averageExpectedMove":4.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":22,"expectedCount":14,"expectedPercent":63.6,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":1.8,"confidenceLow":43.0,"confidenceHigh":80.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":14,"expectedPercent":73.7,"averageReturn":2.5,"medianReturn":3.8,"confidenceLow":51.2,"confidenceHigh":88.2,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":17,"expectedPercent":94.4,"averageReturn":6.9,"medianReturn":7.3,"confidenceLow":74.2,"confidenceHigh":99.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":23},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":23},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":23},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":22},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.9,"averageExpectedMove":3.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.0,"medianReturn":-4.0,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.9,"medianReturn":-3.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":1},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":13.3,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 13.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.8% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.0% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-06-19","price":15.566038},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":15.281163}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":15.881758},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":16.243678}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[13.3194,13.508,13.5815,13.8934,13.706,13.8934,13.97,13.6293,13.7055,13.4481,13.4738,13.6798,13.5843,13.42,13.593,13.5151,13.4017,13.0705,13.0531,13.1315,13.088,13.349,13.8408,13.7267,14.0428,13.831,13.6982,13.8133,13.7956,13.4361,13.5074,13.5386,12.7805,12.5843,12.9229,13.4085,13.6423,13.8042,13.8112,13.6843,13.6934,13.6662,13.7829,14.0752,14.3127,14.2396,14.1483,14.028,14.1569,13.9912,14.2673,14.4687,14.5707,14.6356,14.9788,14.8119,14.5394,14.5674,14.7356,14.773,14.8356,14.8544,14.8073,14.5814,14.3919,14.2402,14.686,14.8378,14.6481,14.684,14.7987,14.6553,14.9039,15.0545,15.0352,15.2375,15.5746,15.7371,15.4946,15.4655,15.2617,14.9733,14.6663,14.5099,15.0085,15.5756,15.4568,15.3681,15.7326,15.6144,15.5343,15.8818,16.0803,15.5294,15.9437,15.566,15.705,15.844,15.6429,16.2437,15.2812,15.3308,15.3705,15.27],"consensus":[45.9247,57.0503,44.8134,64.3477,0.0,42.746,32.0135,-23.5556,19.3344,-31.1471,0.0,25.6499,-12.5668,-23.3417,23.0139,-13.898,-23.1192,-55.8271,-32.5009,0.0,-24.6361,35.9581,58.201,20.7444,58.7259,0.0,-11.9432,24.7262,0.0,-44.7894,0.0,0.0,-67.4207,-53.2077,0.0,29.355,35.0361,40.6278,16.0767,0.0,0.0,0.0,8.386,43.9315,45.8167,13.0741,10.0143,0.0,15.8894,-17.1153,36.8624,40.5006,29.1769,34.2361,57.8017,0.0,-15.6414,0.0,18.5193,9.9314,10.6187,21.684,0.0,-22.0174,-33.6358,-36.7322,29.7002,30.3594,0.0,0.0,22.8895,-18.1938,36.9471,30.1105,12.2198,46.6719,61.9056,44.6885,0.0,12.554,-21.3046,-41.4954,-54.4755,-47.4912,22.0705,50.2155,11.0191,11.8362,48.0777,0.0,0.0,53.1913,45.1165,-33.5256,46.3871,-30.6787,12.372,22.944,-21.3424,61.4902,-56.745,-13.7,-15.0563,-35.7606],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[23.491,31.5531,60.3515,0.0,-19.7575,0.0,24.6996,10.1812,1.9534,20.2967,0.0,-19.8512,-30.5681,-31.4551,39.6527,32.136,0.0,0.0,27.6118,-15.4313,38.982,26.5901,7.3671,46.479,57.9303,41.3658,0.0,6.8944,-22.5995,-40.34,-53.4669,-46.0378,32.0828,45.0761,1.8145,2.9994,46.1004,0.0,0.0,52.9504,42.6611,-35.0303,46.4401,-30.879,24.9164,19.9168,-16.2087,56.4595,-51.4785,-5.3455,-12.4196,-32.3009],"force":[18.8038,20.3144,57.0792,0.0,-46.7539,0.0,20.9618,0.4274,3.7861,13.5774,0.0,-39.5973,-42.2076,-39.9181,54.5704,37.1699,0.0,0.0,27.009,-35.2862,49.3204,28.3449,3.161,49.9311,79.9973,34.1366,0.0,6.494,-42.6274,-55.2784,-64.349,-41.2652,56.5146,71.6256,10.9208,2.2056,54.8717,0.0,0.0,66.3845,49.4879,-76.8967,59.2753,-57.5437,16.875,22.9852,-43.6483,90.0994,-93.6367,-3.5886,-1.6186,-33.3059],"direction":[43.0846,47.2466,55.4037,0.0,-11.2858,0.0,9.7115,17.0449,30.811,29.06,0.0,-11.9359,-31.0192,-40.4876,0.5614,23.4643,0.0,0.0,14.5501,-9.1421,25.7835,35.395,28.7519,44.5643,53.5261,56.0228,0.0,32.6279,-4.5941,-32.9709,-48.5756,-53.5995,13.9751,40.7961,37.21,31.9653,45.4845,0.0,0.0,44.0427,44.8002,-0.8266,37.1207,-11.2604,5.1807,26.3741,-11.2767,46.8046,-36.4125,-35.5971,-27.668,-41.468],"intensity":[86.5385,59.6154,76.9231,40.3846,71.1538,9.6154,28.8462,63.4615,1.9231,57.6923,36.5385,75.0,50.0,23.0769,84.6154,32.6923,34.6154,15.3846,19.2308,19.2308,46.1538,82.6923,7.6923,38.4615,75.0,92.3077,44.2308,59.6154,36.5385,65.3846,69.2308,40.3846,88.4615,96.1538,98.0769,19.2308,84.6154,65.3846,11.5385,78.8462,88.4615,92.3077,82.6923,78.8462,50.0,44.2308,28.8462,98.0769,100.0,96.1538,21.1538,5.7692],"confirmation":[77.1071,78.5722,86.4357,7.7229,30.965,2.2473,73.9064,48.283,26.5654,74.713,3.0678,75.6143,79.0714,79.9318,55.4437,77.8955,27.4265,25.2983,75.3782,74.385,80.1692,77.6352,26.8565,83.0373,88.4217,82.0294,8.7987,27.5751,52.7809,81.7162,85.7484,83.0296,33.6077,84.7998,5.3275,26.6315,83.622,4.7841,3.4283,85.4269,82.6079,57.3604,83.2358,78.6329,50.3437,75.3895,75.5876,88.6254,87.363,27.4167,49.782,79.4213],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,62.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[35.0013,32.8637,21.0832,44.1686,0.404,18.0747,52.8417,15.7377,41.6628,35.8477,19.5342,30.0208,32.708,31.57,41.0365,28.5185,46.795,46.798,16.4937,29.549,25.175,32.8231,35.8944,26.3779,18.9288,27.5947,47.1543,37.3813,36.3126,29.2179,22.7235,26.2423,49.4395,23.4906,44.1016,43.832,25.1999,3.9439,10.666,20.5667,18.8857,4.117,19.0153,21.2824,46.7428,26.8312,28.7561,17.8277,9.8817,35.7118,21.7195,31.2913],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-35.8,"control":-32.3,"force":-33.3,"direction":-41.5,"confirmation":79.4,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":31.3,"intensity":5.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-35.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-32.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-33.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-41.5","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"79/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"47.7","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"3.1%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"24.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"46%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[13.3194,13.508,13.5815,13.8934,13.706,13.8934,13.97,13.6293,13.7055,13.4481,13.4738,13.6798,13.5843,13.42,13.593,13.5151,13.4017,13.0705,13.0531,13.1315,13.088,13.349,13.8408,13.7267,14.0428,13.831,13.6982,13.8133,13.7956,13.4361,13.5074,13.5386,12.7805,12.5843,12.9229,13.4085,13.6423,13.8042,13.8112,13.6843,13.6934,13.6662,13.7829,14.0752,14.3127,14.2396,14.1483,14.028,14.1569,13.9912,14.2673,14.4687,14.5707,14.6356,14.9788,14.8119,14.5394,14.5674,14.7356,14.773,14.8356,14.8544,14.8073,14.5814,14.3919,14.2402,14.686,14.8378,14.6481,14.684,14.7987,14.6553,14.9039,15.0545,15.0352,15.2375,15.5746,15.7371,15.4946,15.4655,15.2617,14.9733,14.6663,14.5099,15.0085,15.5756,15.4568,15.3681,15.7326,15.6144,15.5343,15.8818,16.0803,15.5294,15.9437,15.566,15.705,15.844,15.6429,16.2437,15.2812,15.3308,15.3705,15.27],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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