{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ERG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"3a137d6e-73c4-4e95-9f57-003cf6abcd9c","symbol":"ERG","name":"ERG S.p.A.","exchange":"MIL","country":"IT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Renewable"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.9,"averageExpectedMove":6.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-2.4,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":-1.3,"medianReturn":-2.9,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-2.8,"medianReturn":-1.3,"confidenceLow":21.4,"confidenceHigh":67.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.1,"medianReturn":-3.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":24},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.3% across 24 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.4% across 24 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-16","price":16.387753}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-05","price":24.639999}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[21.38,22.1397,22.1759,22.7005,21.5067,22.2121,21.4886,20.6023,20.6565,19.7159,18.7754,18.2689,18.1242,17.9071,18.7935,18.2689,18.1242,17.7534,17.8529,18.3955,17.4369,18.3955,17.1836,17.7082,17.2741,17.0841,16.849,16.5234,15.9265,15.7095,16.2069,16.0893,15.61,15.0945,15.8632,16.2611,16.2702,16.1707,16.3878,17.0961,17.8044,17.9002,18.1873,17.8332,17.9002,18.1682,17.6321,17.9097,18.5702,18.3788,18.2735,18.1778,19.336,19.7763,19.4126,19.336,19.4892,20.0061,21.0399,21.4611,21.5185,21.6334,21.4036,21.4802,20.5038,20.6378,20.9824,21.0399,20.657,20.9059,20.7719,21.5759,21.6334,21.6908,21.6717,21.4611,21.5951,20.8676,21.844,23.8733,23.3564,20.8484,21.2505,20.4081,22.112,21.5376,20.0635,21.6142,21.9971,21.9205,22.38,22.94,22.94,24.64,24.06,23.02,23.58,23.88,23.02,22.84,22.42,22.06,21.82,22.54],"consensus":[0.0,28.2482,23.072,42.0859,-37.7987,30.0414,-35.657,-61.9153,-23.8302,-64.6052,-72.0576,-52.5442,-43.3399,-47.2959,0.0,-43.5247,-35.1169,-40.9352,-19.597,0.0,-57.7215,29.0273,-59.2748,0.0,-29.012,-35.5488,-30.5732,-47.9194,-50.4312,-42.7559,0.0,-26.6197,-44.1613,-42.5585,0.0,15.6981,0.0,0.0,15.1153,48.1495,54.1155,41.307,46.6795,10.3085,24.9653,30.31,-17.1679,27.7102,55.9362,13.8005,10.1092,11.0749,67.8133,55.5019,12.3151,25.942,23.5006,42.3569,72.949,53.6237,45.5905,40.34,20.5793,22.0729,-37.1131,0.0,20.7539,9.0271,-12.5298,21.9613,0.0,49.0138,26.5106,28.3822,23.1848,0.0,19.7763,-43.0466,34.7206,64.9187,21.9239,-47.8052,0.0,-32.2351,31.4325,0.0,-56.7216,38.8226,20.4517,8.4748,29.1267,36.0212,11.9362,60.0175,24.0592,0.0,30.0278,25.7796,-24.8994,-8.5635,-31.0328,-29.3628,-23.1213,-17.0951],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[68.0121,49.7096,0.9265,18.7054,22.0674,44.2778,77.9373,49.099,44.5767,33.5164,16.5703,21.5414,-32.3966,0.0,30.4719,16.8713,-18.0267,25.7721,0.0,57.4762,22.7225,25.7398,19.2004,0.0,27.3182,-32.7663,28.1034,58.0403,18.2519,-48.3288,0.0,-20.7138,44.4751,0.0,-54.6586,36.0447,28.7596,9.5183,21.9072,35.5135,3.4496,64.1844,18.9294,0.0,34.8658,43.5114,-29.394,-8.1979,-29.858,-19.5365,-14.4424,-24.311],"force":[86.0861,57.7619,25.9508,5.2147,9.5499,39.2855,77.6985,43.6962,19.6354,18.2183,12.1731,0.096,-81.3354,0.0,24.1735,0.9818,-25.4984,27.9428,0.0,54.4798,13.9998,21.0789,13.9969,0.0,19.2906,-79.91,69.1494,88.4519,10.2603,-85.8865,0.0,-33.4518,60.5464,0.0,-81.5746,76.7947,24.9913,1.3498,34.5079,35.1498,4.531,58.5144,1.4633,0.0,23.0327,14.6941,-37.1054,-12.6599,-35.6221,-30.9269,-12.1773,-45.2654],"direction":[54.534,60.5074,52.6634,49.0176,35.1033,42.3554,63.8557,65.886,65.2884,63.9395,48.5556,38.3782,-10.9161,0.0,7.2049,5.8089,-3.0157,13.3336,0.0,35.4381,39.7761,36.6188,34.3012,0.0,11.504,-28.4646,17.6911,55.9703,49.1092,-20.0057,0.0,-44.5333,4.269,0.0,-41.3273,14.8746,7.7143,12.3714,33.5338,37.2239,33.3974,56.3291,48.1522,0.0,29.4951,13.4329,-11.0442,-6.0554,-29.0972,-39.4756,-40.8573,-11.2735],"intensity":[94.2308,75.0,30.7692,32.6923,34.6154,46.1538,88.4615,88.4615,19.2308,25.0,25.0,15.3846,92.3077,71.1538,28.8462,11.5385,44.2308,9.6154,3.8462,78.8462,65.3846,40.3846,1.9231,36.5385,15.3846,80.7692,100.0,100.0,88.4615,100.0,98.0769,80.7692,94.2308,78.8462,92.3077,92.3077,84.6154,44.2308,80.7692,50.0,69.2308,92.3077,61.5385,84.6154,55.7692,15.3846,61.5385,48.0769,36.5385,73.0769,34.6154,51.9231],"confirmation":[90.2541,85.9178,8.4843,53.1133,75.1169,81.4313,91.4124,84.926,81.8134,80.3386,30.9119,51.735,81.2958,24.4943,51.9307,25.1906,50.2977,75.1518,1.3923,83.722,76.1598,76.9,75.1998,25.9873,74.1987,83.055,80.2607,89.596,30.9463,84.4502,28.6181,78.5279,56.991,49.0591,86.9398,81.6228,51.8896,47.8122,77.5945,79.508,27.0803,87.0963,52.6448,26.2761,77.322,75.6414,76.2713,48.2041,78.0883,77.5935,75.1975,31.2907],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,75.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[12.9234,22.1023,43.2129,36.4517,5.2888,2.6471,13.3758,23.1799,27.1911,29.7646,23.2991,8.8566,29.1284,48.5234,46.6574,42.648,22.4141,15.3065,20.4329,18.6308,36.0247,33.9392,37.364,12.222,14.7125,27.5673,1.5564,17.463,38.3829,22.9437,28.5252,33.7646,56.1366,31.0877,9.7313,17.6047,14.7344,10.391,32.9993,21.4707,28.6882,18.9662,35.1175,0.3999,13.8045,47.8085,28.5232,7.0126,31.0481,34.7811,35.297,28.3348],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-17.1,"control":-24.3,"force":-45.3,"direction":-11.3,"confirmation":31.3,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":28.3,"intensity":51.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-17.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-24.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-45.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-11.3","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"31/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.5","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.1%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"54%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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