{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CAPMAN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"3b7eea9f-4638-4db2-bd3d-fe4fdc6c082a","symbol":"CAPMAN","name":"CapMan Oyj","exchange":"HEL","country":"FI","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Range position and boundary pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":2.0,"averageExpectedMove":3.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":29.4,"averageReturn":-1.9,"medianReturn":-2.3,"confidenceLow":13.3,"confidenceHigh":53.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":18.8,"averageReturn":-5.5,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":6.6,"confidenceHigh":43.0,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-0.2,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":18.8,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 18.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -5.5% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 3.1% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-09-20","price":1.595786},{"date":"2024-11-22","price":1.550809},{"date":"2025-02-14","price":1.728919}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1.5971,1.6217,1.5619,1.5619,1.5958,1.648,1.7307,1.7001,1.6965,1.6552,1.6498,1.5832,1.5328,1.5508,1.594,1.5652,1.5508,1.5148,1.5562,1.6228,1.558,1.558,1.5472,1.5742,1.567,1.7289,1.7757,1.7397,1.7469,1.7721,1.8126,1.7293,1.5728,1.6362,1.6529,1.6902,1.7424,1.7014,1.72,1.6902,1.7834,1.72,1.7014,1.7256,1.748,1.7983,1.7796,1.7573,1.815,1.7983,1.7498,1.7554,1.8057,1.7629,1.7666,1.7517,1.744,1.7266,1.7459,1.7189,1.7401,1.7614,1.7653,1.8001,1.8117,1.7575,1.8001,1.8368,1.8136,1.8368,1.8658,1.9045,1.9083,1.9161,1.8793,1.8426,1.8445,1.7788,1.7885,1.7962,1.7691,1.7595,1.7227,1.68,1.736,1.752,1.778,1.68,1.708,1.766,1.728,1.752,1.828,1.804,1.794,1.752,1.748,1.76,1.754,1.752,1.742,1.774,1.802,1.858],"consensus":[0.0,16.6756,-34.9033,-11.102,17.7591,38.9269,66.9289,16.5975,28.3432,-14.1555,0.0,-45.8031,-56.0298,-10.5042,9.5707,-29.5153,-18.9756,-42.8552,14.1729,43.5754,-30.9841,0.0,-21.3194,0.0,0.0,69.1447,63.1204,14.4114,25.9421,45.322,49.2744,-24.6553,-60.7638,12.0463,-8.1268,14.4187,39.8819,0.0,18.0737,-16.8507,48.6387,-20.1526,-15.2023,20.6278,19.3638,44.1828,9.4747,0.0,50.1636,0.0,-25.9795,0.0,36.2573,-26.1575,0.0,-16.1828,-22.8129,-27.9884,0.0,-34.2462,0.0,24.9563,0.0,38.1435,19.401,-25.9408,34.2638,42.251,0.0,34.1239,41.5706,59.108,39.4807,37.642,0.0,-29.57,0.0,-51.7907,-19.6446,0.0,-30.8959,-16.6547,-54.4777,-60.5819,0.0,0.0,19.1391,-55.5368,0.0,27.1854,-29.7526,18.3767,57.0427,0.0,21.4395,-25.3709,-10.0784,0.0,-19.5751,0.0,-15.0436,26.4935,41.4915,62.3593],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[41.3299,-27.4712,0.0,-19.5558,-19.2192,-27.0562,0.0,-36.6361,0.0,28.5536,0.0,28.5575,10.9549,-29.9345,37.2442,42.1695,0.0,31.4081,43.9636,61.5311,39.7608,35.2327,0.0,-28.3573,0.0,-39.4847,-13.7688,0.0,-19.9601,-11.9517,-57.2714,-56.0636,0.0,0.0,17.398,-59.8158,0.0,25.2415,-29.0859,13.1357,55.3075,0.0,21.052,-32.3761,-0.6577,0.0,-21.964,0.0,-17.6134,27.2526,32.2915,62.4273],"force":[57.6048,-48.9442,0.0,-24.0114,-29.9811,-35.4506,0.0,-44.2705,0.0,36.3277,0.0,59.948,10.9802,-49.4735,45.0036,54.1853,0.0,32.6961,35.4052,67.74,21.8099,25.0449,0.0,-52.167,0.0,-82.1837,-2.537,0.0,-33.532,-2.0891,-56.4446,-70.414,0.0,0.0,31.1716,-79.9534,0.0,58.877,-38.8482,32.0966,77.2204,0.0,11.9341,-40.4279,-4.1366,0.0,-19.6078,0.0,-14.5149,43.4896,65.9908,73.004],"direction":[15.2119,-8.38,0.0,-6.7361,-21.8,-23.7236,0.0,-24.3547,0.0,12.7227,0.0,33.5243,35.0685,-4.5674,23.1863,33.8197,0.0,38.2476,43.2395,50.173,51.7827,49.3934,0.0,-14.8152,0.0,-44.1454,-38.5797,0.0,-41.511,-32.4337,-49.8798,-58.7227,0.0,0.0,12.5342,-33.2061,0.0,6.7702,-24.0179,14.5666,44.6131,0.0,28.672,-6.6099,-25.0889,0.0,-16.8217,0.0,-12.4843,13.4859,34.5062,54.6781],"intensity":[44.2308,36.5385,23.0769,9.6154,34.6154,76.9231,44.2308,48.0769,7.6923,9.6154,25.0,48.0769,86.5385,57.6923,44.2308,32.6923,32.6923,15.3846,25.0,40.3846,3.8462,5.7692,38.4615,34.6154,21.1538,88.4615,80.7692,5.7692,34.6154,1.9231,42.3077,65.3846,69.2308,59.6154,25.0,100.0,90.3846,100.0,73.0769,19.2308,90.3846,65.3846,9.6154,50.0,80.7692,3.8462,5.7692,28.8462,3.8462,36.5385,38.4615,82.6923],"confirmation":[80.1756,77.0448,1.2883,50.699,75.5734,77.1979,2.2291,79.2279,49.3668,76.2778,24.0578,81.0165,74.0804,54.2907,79.2463,81.8853,4.0615,78.9175,81.0782,87.1407,80.091,79.6982,5.3567,78.1695,24.9405,85.6868,51.1878,4.8895,78.1337,50.2906,85.4502,87.7547,32.1072,3.1662,74.5177,86.4507,6.1304,55.0281,77.8082,74.3786,86.895,4.5354,74.5769,53.8042,25.8542,27.4724,74.2286,1.0672,72.7587,76.9843,82.1641,96.2783],"persistence":[37.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[28.5935,23.2689,20.9124,2.6042,36.169,25.9107,28.7468,22.3073,9.3881,30.5187,28.6374,30.7826,39.977,5.4917,26.6039,22.5436,3.5676,32.5931,28.3713,19.5857,30.1845,30.9372,19.8118,33.2091,45.0975,24.0595,39.8094,42.8083,33.9889,21.0224,21.7352,19.6852,42.1477,9.7489,37.1853,27.7684,27.7697,1.6166,26.5444,37.4726,20.8321,30.2555,33.4214,12.6854,41.9288,40.9489,26.3817,1.8086,1.3992,6.5119,25.0578,18.7061],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":62.4,"control":62.4,"force":73.0,"direction":54.7,"confirmation":96.3,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":18.7,"intensity":82.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+62.4","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+62.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+73.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+54.7","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"96/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"61.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"3.1%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.5","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"95%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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