{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"XISP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"43e625e7-232a-47a8-86e6-667678cee915","symbol":"XISP","name":"Xtr.IEXtr.S&P 500 Swap II ETF R","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"etf","currency":"EUR","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Directional pressure and rotation."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":58,"displayedObservations":58,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":5,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":3,"medianExpectedMove":13.1,"averageExpectedMove":13.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":1.5,"medianReturn":1.7,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":12.5,"medianReturn":12.5,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":5},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":5},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":5},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":6.5,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":9.7,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":11.5,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":13.8,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":13.2,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":13.5,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":14.8,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":13.3,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":13.9,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":15.1,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":13.4,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":15.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":13.1,"sample":1},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":0.6,"averageExpectedMove":0.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":0.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":4.5,"medianReturn":4.5,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":12.9,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.9% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.8% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-03","price":31.214001}],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":35.111}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-07-03","price":36.062},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":36.325001}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[34.2316,34.7344,33.9193,34.7476,35.0899,35.1954,35.1658,30.0058,30.6198,30.7843,30.8481,31.2977,31.0903,30.88,37.03,32.3483,31.3196,31.7243,31.2199,32.1928,32.2257,31.7223,31.8509,31.9825,31.8579,32.6653,32.775,32.1689,31.9396,31.9396,31.5987,32.031,31.863,31.891,31.886,31.074,30.516,31.214,31.937,33.152,33.482,33.517,34.447,35.111,35.48,35.678,35.652,35.323,35.928,35.571,36.062,36.325,35.7171,35.7737,35.3403,36.7063,36.753,36.035],"consensus":[99.2456,100.0,-100.0,100.0,87.3651,57.785,38.0447,-73.7692,-17.3393,-28.1285,-44.179,11.0765,-40.8305,-38.2473,70.67,-9.8208,-38.172,0.0,-46.1698,29.5377,14.5038,-30.1346,9.5235,0.0,-22.4227,44.0602,32.8615,-14.2269,-9.261,-8.4707,-39.6176,17.1911,-12.8502,0.0,0.0,-59.9371,-61.902,17.3445,39.3354,70.5349,63.787,37.9753,78.2995,64.556,65.8866,53.8007,36.0785,36.1417,56.7753,30.3658,56.1179,52.2494,0.0,25.1002,-21.1434,67.5571,30.9108,18.5302],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[24.5549,-67.3715,-5.7316,-7.425,-31.6611,5.0141,-62.7938,-48.1865,65.4624,-22.3732,-57.6063,0.0,-40.2008,30.8984,12.9735,-40.6853,5.9748,0.0,-30.7953,50.6192,34.4864,-9.6853,-8.6738,-2.9585,-34.1819,27.2711,-17.8211,0.0,0.0,-57.0721,-59.376,24.8257,39.5549,67.7337,64.8171,31.9734,80.0165,70.2671,73.944,53.1015,25.24,47.3881,49.256,42.19,68.4048,55.6513,0.0,25.3103,-19.4149,71.8144,22.187,21.3539],"force":[16.1569,-61.0333,-41.2572,-15.415,-12.6352,68.1188,-17.7779,-13.8059,57.9987,-8.2929,-33.133,0.0,-60.5142,72.8549,18.1793,-39.4217,23.9621,0.0,-22.8686,47.0232,24.6158,-48.6998,-17.0879,-3.3363,-58.5435,29.2471,-12.6788,0.0,0.0,-89.2895,-79.178,71.8966,77.1167,95.8514,67.187,15.8923,90.3128,46.5349,43.9371,27.7516,4.1981,5.1324,63.2994,1.8749,36.204,29.904,0.0,9.8348,-42.5103,88.7623,10.7796,73.3039],"direction":[69.0958,-90.178,-85.5607,-82.8921,-81.0165,22.7397,-32.1956,-44.3464,85.6725,-3.4336,-19.5606,0.0,-42.7455,2.9583,13.6273,-11.4429,3.266,0.0,-12.5354,34.4477,36.8941,-5.2062,-4.3414,-18.4377,-32.3112,2.9403,-7.2916,0.0,0.0,-42.2454,-52.4488,30.1713,12.0979,55.6532,60.1811,60.6083,67.7564,70.9012,72.3563,73.2063,71.237,52.7703,60.7088,39.8815,56.2999,64.3226,0.0,35.7639,-7.8566,47.5451,55.2601,23.8209],"intensity":[33.3333,100.0,62.5,22.2222,30.0,54.5455,50.0,61.5385,100.0,86.6667,81.25,29.4118,61.1111,78.9474,60.0,52.381,13.6364,43.4783,8.3333,72.0,15.3846,70.3704,10.7143,17.2414,23.3333,38.7097,9.375,6.0606,20.5882,80.0,75.0,70.2703,76.3158,92.3077,92.5,24.3902,83.3333,81.3953,34.0909,62.2222,8.6957,59.5745,72.9167,46.9388,62.0,21.5686,59.6154,11.5385,48.0769,94.2308,84.6154,75.0],"confirmation":[79.7128,91.3155,14.1386,11.2781,81.3667,10.2264,80.0285,79.3428,90.3076,48.9706,79.7653,5.273,83.3025,56.7159,72.7766,77.7653,26.2083,49.2052,75.0613,82.0896,78.2396,52.1164,48.5443,25.3048,81.3372,51.6756,49.3644,1.0697,25.0777,88.1181,88.3736,36.202,81.7354,91.3854,88.4998,79.5706,93.3958,88.0217,88.292,84.433,56.072,56.5643,86.4815,54.2876,85.1636,83.987,8.899,75.5636,52.7767,90.1997,77.4109,43.3044],"persistence":[71.4286,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[30.1989,12.4044,40.559,35.3004,27.3596,27.8601,35.2997,22.3683,14.249,24.1018,23.4971,15.2554,25.7983,17.7403,12.3122,15.0219,9.2279,8.513,2.9032,1.8284,3.4263,13.9503,12.1348,41.7386,29.6195,23.5801,3.9845,5.2271,31.2894,19.2201,18.8981,53.4364,14.0995,14.6659,18.1047,30.9944,10.8344,17.6256,16.9739,23.0611,30.7067,0.334,8.0182,26.6822,8.0522,22.8508,20.1678,9.5806,35.3894,2.6776,32.9245,31.5241],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":18.5,"control":21.4,"force":73.3,"direction":23.8,"confirmation":43.3,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":31.5,"intensity":75.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+18.5","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+21.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+73.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+23.8","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"43/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"60.4","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"30.1","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"85%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[34.2316,34.7344,33.9193,34.7476,35.0899,35.1954,35.1658,30.0058,30.6198,30.7843,30.8481,31.2977,31.0903,30.88,37.03,32.3483,31.3196,31.7243,31.2199,32.1928,32.2257,31.7223,31.8509,31.9825,31.8579,32.6653,32.775,32.1689,31.9396,31.9396,31.5987,32.031,31.863,31.891,31.886,31.074,30.516,31.214,31.937,33.152,33.482,33.517,34.447,35.111,35.48,35.678,35.652,35.323,35.928,35.571,36.062,36.325,35.7171,35.7737,35.3403,36.7063,36.753,36.035],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,34.4765,34.6072,34.7088,33.8537,33.2657,32.8145,32.457,32.2462,32.0361,31.8259,32.7721,32.695,32.445,32.3139,32.115,32.1292,32.1467,32.0696,32.0298,32.0212,31.9915,32.114,32.2342,32.2223,32.1709,32.1289,32.0325,32.0322,32.0015,31.9814,31.964,31.8022,31.5684,31.5039,31.5827,31.868,32.1615,32.4079,32.7787,33.2027,33.6168,33.9915,34.2934,34.4806,34.7438,34.8942,35.1065,35.3281,35.3988,35.467,35.4439,35.6735,35.8697,35.8998],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,33.1144,32.9489,33.2512,33.1843,33.0462,32.9483,32.8202,32.7738,32.7332,32.6583,32.5985,32.5529,32.5014,32.5135,32.5329,32.5059,32.464,32.4251,32.3639,32.3393,32.304,32.2734,32.2447,32.158,32.0364,31.9754,31.9726,32.06,32.1653,32.2654,32.427,32.6258,32.8373,33.0477,33.2406,33.3948,33.5825,33.7298,33.9025,34.082,34.2031,34.3194,34.3951,34.5663,34.7282,34.825],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1000.0,1000.0,571.4286,1167.4757,74.023,1332.0463,3.288,23.2582,59.1032,76.4111,21.4053,6.0311,6.013,15.6035,11.4077,0.0,0.0,0.0,41.1173,21.6622,146.3415,728.8424,1.3106,0.0,10.1732,1547.2681,421.5938,232.8489,1144.3787,22.1555,49.6267,109.43,362.799,545.3662,0.0194,0.5633,5.1346,0.0,14.3061,108.1643,0.0,0.0,0.0938,21.1222,19.0706,8.2223,102.2942,283.6469,915.9145],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2.215,2.9015,4.1797,4.2831,4.171,4.1462,3.9582,3.7548,3.6604,3.514,3.2863,3.1259,3.0074,2.8799,2.9694,2.9117,2.9173,2.8842,2.7551,2.6805,2.6481,2.6175,2.7272,2.7729,2.6997,2.6626,2.6737,2.5575,2.4439,2.4009,2.3716,2.3222,2.203,2.0552,2.0499,2.0108,2.0036,1.9324,1.8412,1.8655,1.825,1.8904,1.9847,1.9109,1.9955],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope 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