{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ALC Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"446962d8-e46c-461d-bbe6-40ebea843510","symbol":"ALC","name":"Alcon Inc.","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CHF","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Medical Instruments & Supplies"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.4,"averageExpectedMove":6.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":2.2,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":50.5,"confidenceHigh":89.8,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":-1.7,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":40.0,"averageReturn":-2.3,"medianReturn":-4.3,"confidenceLow":19.8,"confidenceHigh":64.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":12.5,"averageExpectedMove":12.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-2.8,"medianReturn":-1.9,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.3,"medianReturn":-9.1,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.5,"medianReturn":-10.0,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.5,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-10.7,"sample":4},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-10.0,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":4},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":4},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":4},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":4},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-10.7,"sample":4},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":4},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-11.8,"sample":4},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":4},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":4},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-12.5,"sample":4}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":56.2,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 56.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -1.7% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.0% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-07-24","price":55.740002}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-10-18","price":81.69503},{"date":"2025-03-07","price":79.870331},{"date":"2025-04-04","price":72.214523}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-09-13","price":82.587547},{"date":"2024-09-27","price":83.956085},{"date":"2025-01-31","price":83.023895},{"date":"2025-03-28","price":83.698242}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[80.981,81.6157,78.601,82.5875,81.7545,83.9561,82.3495,82.1512,81.695,81.2785,79.5332,80.3463,74.4954,76.0424,77.7283,75.9036,74.5946,75.3879,76.5184,75.7449,76.2408,76.5581,79.9497,83.0239,81.6157,80.6042,80.5645,82.7066,79.8703,77.5895,79.2555,83.6982,72.2145,71.6988,74.7532,77.8671,80.505,79.1563,74.518,70.5373,70.3582,71.6718,70.5573,69.8407,70.0199,69.5223,69.5422,69.8009,72.3685,71.4728,68.766,70.199,65.4819,63.3523,63.7702,62.3571,60.9838,58.6551,61.0435,57.839,59.2323,60.8245,59.5109,58.7347,61.4017,61.1828,63.5513,65.0838,62.1979,63.2328,63.0935,62.9741,63.3921,63.6508,62.8746,62.1182,60.4464,60.7051,63.9693,66.5368,62.4964,60.5459,57.9386,58.7745,60.0284,61.3022,63.5911,59.0133,57.9386,49.17,50.42,53.28,52.1,53.12,53.16,52.86,55.2,55.04,54.44,56.7,55.74,55.38,57.34,60.68],"consensus":[0.0,27.0538,-36.4318,40.597,0.0,42.9623,0.0,0.0,0.0,-10.3575,-35.444,0.0,-66.8124,-11.0582,0.0,-46.2451,-42.241,0.0,0.0,-19.3785,0.0,9.055,52.6307,65.8507,16.389,10.3961,14.3593,36.6728,-30.796,-41.3871,11.5097,54.109,-66.1769,-27.1388,0.0,14.5213,41.1764,0.0,-41.2253,-56.9907,-42.6535,0.0,-42.3314,-22.6319,-16.7142,-28.7263,-18.5457,0.0,27.7432,-12.6254,-35.4265,11.7069,-58.0197,-60.022,-23.4543,-46.4467,-51.0413,-61.1018,0.0,-66.4103,-8.5954,12.0363,-33.4977,-25.7228,23.0549,0.0,40.813,46.5943,-26.1285,26.7964,0.0,0.0,16.6473,8.7987,0.0,-9.8908,-38.2431,-14.5057,41.2741,53.5302,-24.6316,-32.3381,-57.2987,-13.7334,0.0,16.1216,46.8115,-44.1315,-32.643,-78.9252,-17.2061,0.0,-48.1659,0.0,-8.9389,-10.1848,23.4591,0.0,0.0,44.9113,0.0,-9.0709,46.2129,62.6766],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-47.2212,-61.3419,-15.5161,-43.6751,-53.8407,-65.4469,0.0,-68.8635,-5.8014,11.1611,-34.8239,-34.1656,14.3514,0.0,34.8582,45.1773,-36.7957,25.5871,0.0,0.0,12.3744,5.0309,0.0,-9.5412,-37.7618,-9.9083,40.0917,46.4773,-36.1932,-40.3602,-59.9449,-3.3461,0.0,17.6098,45.7451,-52.699,-33.2624,-78.9421,-8.3989,0.0,-46.8468,0.0,-17.486,-5.0785,24.9013,0.0,0.0,35.9215,0.0,-15.5024,43.3618,54.729],"force":[-86.1704,-63.9314,-2.9054,-37.1642,-39.7297,-56.435,0.0,-75.7233,-34.5502,45.1716,-29.0663,-16.7776,59.5163,0.0,59.6812,48.0292,-57.0529,31.7917,0.0,0.0,17.1997,1.7725,0.0,-12.7934,-47.2124,-1.4714,64.6952,69.0295,-54.8251,-40.3984,-65.5663,-11.1264,0.0,29.9305,60.1006,-67.2635,-28.1932,-99.2418,-32.8903,0.0,-42.6828,0.0,-9.4439,-6.1875,34.8288,0.0,0.0,72.274,0.0,-20.6806,60.348,83.0555],"direction":[-50.2533,-55.721,-51.3548,-56.2445,-55.9217,-59.4694,0.0,-56.9544,-42.6068,10.6315,-35.1474,-22.4632,6.9579,0.0,34.1413,47.1889,-8.1514,24.6105,0.0,0.0,21.1362,18.1234,0.0,-8.217,-32.3865,-29.0701,25.8959,50.5198,-10.1484,-17.4126,-48.369,-43.3617,0.0,4.5574,38.5381,-17.8174,-35.1136,-64.394,-63.0546,0.0,-53.59,0.0,-12.3013,-27.7152,13.6896,0.0,0.0,35.6407,0.0,-6.572,39.3749,57.2032],"intensity":[92.3077,98.0769,48.0769,28.8462,25.0,59.6154,57.6923,73.0769,48.0769,32.6923,21.1538,15.3846,88.4615,82.6923,59.6154,42.3077,65.3846,23.0769,7.6923,1.9231,38.4615,17.3077,48.0769,59.6154,36.5385,5.7692,75.0,63.4615,78.8462,50.0,63.4615,38.4615,53.8462,42.3077,57.6923,90.3846,78.8462,100.0,98.0769,73.0769,32.6923,17.3077,5.7692,13.4615,63.4615,7.6923,17.3077,71.1538,17.3077,21.1538,50.0,86.5385],"confirmation":[87.5888,87.3061,52.7761,82.6223,83.9458,87.3441,34.1142,89.4977,8.8489,29.8095,78.564,75.83,53.9547,0.4218,81.7259,82.9755,33.5467,76.7455,24.3586,47.9674,73.4091,25.3255,25.401,71.2588,80.5185,49.648,81.9395,85.7095,33.4578,78.4716,86.5472,6.169,28.6333,50.8904,83.4009,82.6965,78.3007,93.875,33.7967,34.9681,83.2661,4.4207,26.8513,26.8247,75.8314,3.5737,24.2741,83.3425,3.8018,49.8939,83.2624,88.7987],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[20.9476,19.9749,37.913,26.7614,23.8161,18.8669,44.0876,15.3995,28.8951,32.862,14.4985,33.6302,26.7217,10.0926,28.3092,26.5766,31.7324,25.1312,12.6195,37.625,24.8041,9.4311,5.0844,22.0704,29.0373,41.7137,9.6039,22.8585,51.9912,11.7798,21.183,43.103,42.5966,10.0207,26.1368,26.9712,18.467,10.4717,41.3587,46.7171,23.4815,42.7192,40.0664,1.8211,26.4124,30.295,22.1025,20.2537,10.7665,10.6142,25.6332,18.1515],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":62.7,"control":54.7,"force":83.1,"direction":57.2,"confirmation":88.8,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":18.2,"intensity":86.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+62.7","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+54.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+83.1","detail":"Upward 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