{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"TWO Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4a0b4367-7cd3-4746-8a28-fe170d7d1c16","symbol":"TWO","name":"Two Harbors Investments Corp","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Reit - Mortgage"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","headline":"The upward price response is leading Market Dynamics","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":20,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":7.7,"averageExpectedMove":12.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":20,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":55.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":1.0,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":74.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":52.6,"averageReturn":1.3,"medianReturn":3.0,"confidenceLow":31.7,"confidenceHigh":72.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":19,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":57.9,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":3.1,"confidenceLow":36.3,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":20},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":20},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":20},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":20},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":45.5,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":22},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 45.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.1% across 22 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.5% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-01-30","price":11.129703}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[10.8729,11.1082,10.8023,10.9984,10.9356,10.7552,10.5745,10.3229,10.6719,10.4528,9.2517,9.6412,9.4221,9.5276,9.5357,9.625,9.6088,9.6331,9.5276,9.8198,9.3562,10.0642,9.9631,10.747,10.8734,11.396,11.5983,11.9523,11.8596,11.5309,11.5477,11.1347,10.1064,9.3707,9.6072,10.3078,10.3954,10.299,10.4917,9.5021,9.2744,9.3357,9.4583,9.1518,9.3006,9.5897,9.3354,8.9631,9.4898,8.8813,8.9449,9.1628,8.9177,9.0811,9.408,9.1265,8.9903,8.9358,9.2173,9.1046,9.0388,9.2267,9.1328,9.0952,9.0952,9.1328,9.5274,9.6026,9.3301,10.7207,10.2133,9.9408,11.8672,13.6817,12.9733,11.1297,10.7125,11.0618,10.4602,10.0235,8.9853,8.7039,10.3923,10.8871,11.12,11.02,11.12,11.0,12.1964,12.2062,12.2548,12.1575,11.9922,12.0019,12.0019,11.9825,11.9689,11.9497,11.9596,11.9695,11.9794,12.09,12.12,12.04],"consensus":[40.5646,54.9098,0.0,45.7194,0.0,-19.1169,-27.9339,-46.4563,23.7638,-31.7614,-76.2663,0.0,-54.7879,-19.0264,-17.0425,-8.2359,-15.9862,0.0,-22.8248,28.6708,-52.0355,50.0958,0.0,68.6819,50.866,72.8119,56.0328,69.8142,36.9822,0.0,14.7177,-28.76,-65.456,-63.2758,-25.3206,16.6236,0.0,0.0,13.168,-66.4657,-54.4562,-21.5444,-27.5839,-52.2384,0.0,15.1559,-35.9543,-50.9659,26.1753,-59.3145,-27.2128,8.2574,-36.0807,12.4788,30.9219,-25.2111,-22.7432,-12.7699,21.1217,-13.1755,-10.9205,22.072,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,45.5382,34.0948,-13.7265,74.8595,0.0,0.0,75.2953,88.1037,17.512,-20.8945,-30.7193,9.2664,-41.107,-32.9767,-63.52,-48.341,35.9015,24.4952,35.0618,14.0831,22.1917,0.0,62.5875,43.8941,30.1147,27.2595,0.0,8.0687,0.0,11.0972,20.7353,8.0886,8.7579,0.0,16.3856,28.0418,27.8753,2.6075],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-30.1342,15.3348,28.2308,-31.3121,-31.6305,-10.3926,25.9972,-17.0896,-15.8417,20.6392,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,43.2578,31.4613,-26.6006,67.3115,0.0,0.0,66.1346,90.8055,8.7216,-34.9863,-23.438,19.2206,-39.2222,-21.9833,-63.0339,-45.6697,39.1296,13.1315,32.8787,4.4147,20.6199,0.0,61.9947,49.0513,24.3718,22.9374,0.0,9.4704,0.0,17.5873,31.5175,12.5152,13.1783,0.0,26.0045,33.0074,36.8182,6.1099],"force":[-42.9081,33.4541,48.6609,-37.7916,-24.7829,-5.1444,48.3781,-19.5236,-12.1026,30.5642,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,57.6015,24.0938,-39.7416,98.3604,0.0,0.0,97.0636,98.7151,46.7457,-76.9585,-62.6355,20.5469,-58.6086,-44.7848,-76.2976,-39.1923,82.3347,40.166,34.9397,0.3429,13.6469,0.0,79.86,25.1465,9.5353,4.2395,0.0,7.2843,0.0,1.2392,12.7183,2.0464,0.9295,0.0,11.1832,32.104,23.4504,13.6143],"direction":[-37.9999,5.7677,21.3269,-9.2523,-11.1293,-20.9335,3.9192,-4.1678,-4.452,17.6436,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,39.5279,44.248,-19.5691,66.6995,0.0,0.0,70.2158,77.4365,73.4564,-35.2563,-16.2434,10.1673,-30.76,-37.1062,-54.9486,-57.9289,0.9544,26.2889,37.6439,34.9472,30.0914,0.0,50.9275,51.3914,51.3776,48.642,0.0,17.4332,0.0,12.4918,14.1392,10.269,9.2977,0.0,9.1086,19.4653,20.8155,10.1917],"intensity":[26.9231,28.8462,65.3846,36.5385,19.2308,32.6923,36.5385,30.7692,5.7692,15.3846,28.8462,19.2308,3.8462,15.3846,67.3077,55.7692,36.5385,100.0,90.3846,61.5385,100.0,98.0769,94.2308,96.1538,88.4615,78.8462,69.2308,94.2308,84.6154,40.3846,94.2308,100.0,17.3077,3.8462,5.7692,9.6154,86.5385,80.7692,55.7692,9.6154,11.5385,11.5385,1.9231,19.2308,11.5385,13.4615,3.8462,3.8462,9.6154,19.2308,5.7692,13.4615],"confirmation":[79.8445,51.1527,78.4766,76.358,75.2046,49.2235,53.6847,49.6833,48.7889,75.3437,24.8122,0.7952,1.0038,47.6103,82.9746,78.6457,31.8305,92.7863,36.6586,31.3317,92.8975,96.4754,36.4185,38.3681,78.9138,27.993,81.7163,79.0799,88.7232,83.231,58.3913,76.4892,79.2493,26.9018,74.8649,2.9551,88.5634,81.3962,77.097,53.4207,4.3095,48.98,3.1975,48.6739,74.2267,47.9819,47.8299,24.3233,72.9383,77.0215,76.649,2.2975],"persistence":[25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[29.675,22.5539,29.4093,7.0272,22.6703,15.3157,37.8101,3.0132,13.7606,29.7307,17.6604,1.1953,16.2077,27.8549,25.5349,32.6407,50.4923,12.5343,46.5905,32.0146,12.3061,5.8981,41.1157,51.8873,25.3308,54.0623,28.6744,22.851,14.3266,24.579,21.0003,20.3115,30.3939,42.1104,24.6272,6.0118,14.1268,24.868,31.3218,33.3811,15.9976,21.5872,24.0211,28.5536,13.8235,11.7971,10.7345,3.4406,6.6012,34.8135,35.4082,38.6025],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":2.6,"control":6.1,"force":13.6,"direction":10.2,"confirmation":2.3,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":38.6,"intensity":13.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+2.6","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+6.1","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+13.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+10.2","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"2/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.8","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"3.5%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.5","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"91%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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