{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UST10D Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"4a598fc7-ddf5-41a1-86dc-d7e98430476b","symbol":"UST10D","name":"UBS Core US Treasury 10+ d","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains downward.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":58,"displayedObservations":58,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned downward","stateTone":"negative","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"This is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"accumulation","zoneContext":"Price is within accumulation conditions while Market Dynamics is improving. A green marker is required before the recovery is treated as confirmed.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":100.0,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":2},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 100.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -2.2% across 2 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 4.7% across 3 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 9.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":9.6192}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-05-29","price":9.7674}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[9.3223,9.4369,9.5173,9.5693,9.5208,9.5275,9.5445,9.7139,9.8535,9.787,9.7939,9.8598,9.9165,10.0694,10.0575,9.961,9.9272,9.8979,9.9527,9.9839,9.8525,9.7292,9.7865,9.8271,9.8461,9.8276,9.8618,9.8456,9.744,9.809,10.0535,10.036,10.1625,9.972,9.78,9.7326,9.7068,9.8014,9.8276,9.7826,9.815,9.708,9.805,9.5554,9.6192,9.7674,9.7354,9.818,9.8658,9.9604,9.7944,9.4243,9.4446,9.3211,9.2446,9.2991,9.243,9.2772],"consensus":[100.0,60.3443,100.0,-100.0,35.1508,56.4692,47.4009,82.9055,69.2475,14.4745,59.9669,75.5731,80.4754,91.0009,30.7564,0.0,16.4407,-13.637,45.5138,35.8925,-41.6346,-59.3166,-17.5192,0.0,13.9057,0.0,25.0298,0.0,-59.0476,18.4796,63.8546,11.8739,69.1934,-12.8206,-60.6883,-52.2453,-35.9812,8.4529,12.4044,-32.3319,0.0,-60.5628,24.9446,-68.0122,0.0,36.8917,-15.3218,34.4339,29.6342,45.5389,-17.0054,-54.9587,-34.9054,-70.6189,-71.1016,-19.6403,-59.7432,-19.7351],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[50.3571,71.7756,56.8066,12.426,60.9697,77.4611,82.2089,91.2999,12.2891,0.0,21.2109,-2.4829,60.2043,43.2536,-46.2548,-59.0901,-12.8722,0.0,29.3941,0.0,26.3491,0.0,-55.9658,29.3519,67.5792,0.6506,82.9342,-32.9703,-59.299,-55.5596,-27.9277,25.0154,17.3585,-40.0187,0.0,-64.1677,28.3623,-74.3738,0.0,36.6031,-11.236,28.7716,9.4181,46.0964,-22.2794,-57.0195,-30.3679,-72.7511,-76.7285,-9.7816,-66.7778,-12.8298],"force":[21.3463,99.501,63.819,35.167,30.9639,65.2797,86.9458,97.0027,14.1412,0.0,18.1956,-55.4949,67.9532,23.1193,-59.5285,-61.7498,-14.6387,0.0,19.6312,0.0,37.6312,0.0,-75.8886,52.925,73.5869,26.7252,57.7647,-44.06,-76.4824,-41.3026,-17.1679,48.5563,27.6634,-45.4982,0.0,-71.6256,72.4632,-64.5906,0.0,79.4987,-14.0717,45.3453,42.9113,31.6029,-45.3102,-40.6399,-1.1999,-69.2132,-61.579,-26.5156,-36.1134,-15.0708],"direction":[62.6328,83.7716,87.3431,80.6761,79.5374,80.7678,73.8725,86.3721,83.9317,0.0,35.7293,-3.514,12.6966,36.6035,-23.5729,-57.8375,-45.8,0.0,7.885,0.0,14.5211,0.0,-50.5403,18.5498,52.6463,52.2714,61.653,-32.5215,-50.9946,-56.2738,-58.6234,39.121,4.1567,-14.1424,0.0,-48.5409,12.9031,-63.1857,0.0,6.7881,-20.8841,33.1113,43.2548,54.8559,-9.2399,-62.8311,-64.1666,-69.1861,-71.4727,-63.876,-68.582,-52.4882],"intensity":[16.6667,85.7143,100.0,33.3333,70.0,36.3636,25.0,76.9231,71.4286,46.6667,81.25,5.8824,22.2222,47.3684,70.0,57.1429,27.2727,13.0435,16.6667,36.0,23.0769,59.2593,57.1429,34.4828,96.6667,93.5484,68.75,90.9091,91.1765,65.7143,52.7778,43.2432,10.5263,12.8205,5.0,58.5366,50.0,97.6744,77.2727,91.1111,15.2174,40.4255,20.8333,46.9388,82.0,98.0392,1.9231,73.0769,38.4615,34.6154,25.0,11.5385],"confirmation":[82.3292,95.2051,90.1833,36.3487,86.2902,91.8409,93.9229,97.2986,34.4386,39.812,30.6811,29.2258,83.0244,78.9842,81.798,87.0589,30.4865,31.5728,51.4038,1.9079,76.3735,23.915,87.4554,33.4215,88.6733,8.4957,89.5842,34.3522,87.9228,84.3345,79.0634,34.6872,50.579,78.6303,4.9389,87.6623,34.7977,89.5627,36.4097,58.4416,72.9271,79.4377,78.1956,82.1392,30.8618,85.119,55.545,90.5227,90.3766,33.3518,86.2905,39.2415],"persistence":[71.4286,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[0.0406,7.1992,15.3699,42.6432,19.8938,10.5837,3.834,4.4643,34.5608,42.9661,1.6893,41.7828,65.8563,4.0516,15.4417,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Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-19.7","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-12.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-15.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-52.5","detail":"Downward 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direction.","series":[{"label":"Impulse","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.1384,0.1581,0.1708,0.1711,0.1666,0.1589,0.1554,0.1534,0.1396,0.1174,0.1032,0.0941,0.0875,0.0798,0.0756,0.0702,0.057,0.0512,0.0656,0.0747,0.0911,0.0877,0.0687,0.0493,0.0315,0.0247,0.0212,0.0146,0.0118,0.001,0.0003,-0.0202,-0.031,-0.0272,-0.0265,-0.0191,-0.0092,0.0062,0.0049,-0.0257,-0.0477,-0.0743,-0.1003,-0.1153,-0.1302,-0.1376],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":2.0},{"label":"Signal","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.1555,0.1561,0.156,0.1555,0.1523,0.1453,0.1369,0.1284,0.1202,0.1121,0.1048,0.0979,0.0897,0.082,0.0787,0.0779,0.0806,0.082,0.0793,0.0733,0.065,0.0569,0.0498,0.0427,0.0365,0.0294,0.0236,0.0148,0.0057,-0.0009,-0.006,-0.0086,-0.0087,-0.0058,-0.0036,-0.008,-0.016,-0.0276,-0.0422,-0.0568,-0.0715,-0.0847],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7},{"label":"Expansion","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0112,0.0028,-0.0006,-0.0021,-0.0127,-0.0279,-0.0337,-0.0342,-0.0327,-0.0323,-0.0292,-0.0277,-0.0327,-0.0308,-0.0131,-0.0032,0.0106,0.0057,-0.0106,-0.024,-0.0335,-0.0322,-0.0286,-0.0281,-0.0247,-0.0284,-0.0233,-0.0351,-0.0366,-0.0263,-0.0205,-0.0104,-0.0005,0.0119,0.0085,-0.0176,-0.0317,-0.0466,-0.0582,-0.0585,-0.0587,-0.0529],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.0,"fill":"rgba(7,134,92,.12)"}],"guides":[{"label":"Neutral","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"volatility","eyebrow":"Risk geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.8096,0.7895,0.8516,0.8624,0.8592,0.8601,0.836,0.8819,0.9324,0.9347,0.8938,0.8422,0.8397,0.8354,0.8915,0.9275,0.9029,0.9917,0.9727,0.9808,1.0646,1.1623,1.1808,1.1749,1.1493,1.1127,1.0861,1.0605,1.0744,1.0679,1.2041,1.2218,1.2257,1.1653,1.1331,1.083,1.0639,1.1257,1.3668,1.2818,1.3225,1.3506,1.3126,1.2696,1.2648],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope width","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,6.3878,6.5993,6.9813,7.4483,8.4724,9.068,9.1448,9.0938,8.9724,8.9428,8.9554,7.9531,7.2643,6.7546,6.3429,5.6475,4.815,3.8159,3.5228,3.7238,3.685,3.9026,4.0902,4.6969,4.5067,4.4164,4.5889,4.8204,4.8527,4.7967,4.7002,4.7107,4.7585,4.7416,5.4084,5.7363,5.7583,5.7938,5.7869,5.7663,5.898,5.509,6.1134,5.7304,6.4973,7.7182,8.4677,9.2888,9.7389],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"range","eyebrow":"Acceptance map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,100.0,93.3631,77.5758,78.6734,89.2584,98.3535,100.0,93.6058,80.8825,76.7343,73.1272,79.8605,83.7081,67.5363,52.3626,59.4205,64.4102,66.7547,64.4704,64.9016,62.282,43.8053,53.6135,90.5155,87.8743,100.0,58.4562,16.5853,6.2484,9.9941,28.6786,33.8534,24.9654,31.3648,10.2311,29.3897,0.0,21.5904,42.9788,38.3605,50.2814,57.18,70.8327,46.8755,0.0,2.743,3.2897,0.0,6.573,0.499,7.9825],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From high","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0,-0.3951,-1.4078,-1.3388,-0.6743,-0.1034,0.0,-0.5095,-1.5359,-1.8692,-2.159,-1.618,-1.3089,-2.6082,-3.8273,-3.2602,-2.8594,-2.671,-2.8545,-2.5164,-2.6758,-3.6805,-3.0381,-0.6212,-0.7942,0.0,-1.8745,-3.7638,-4.2303,-4.4841,-3.5533,-3.2954,-3.7383,-3.4194,-4.4723,-3.5178,-5.9739,-5.3461,-3.8878,-4.2027,-3.3899,-2.9196,-1.9887,-3.6221,-7.2638,-7.0646,-8.2791,-9.032,-8.4956,-9.048,-8.7114],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.5},{"label":"From low","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,4.4106,5.9105,5.1963,5.2698,5.9788,6.588,8.2319,8.1037,7.066,6.7036,6.3884,6.9767,7.3128,5.9,4.5744,5.191,5.6269,5.8317,5.6322,5.0126,4.7558,3.0701,3.7575,6.3438,6.1587,7.4967,2.7623,0.7837,0.2953,0.524,1.5037,1.775,1.309,1.6445,0.5364,1.541,0.0,1.5798,3.1448,2.8069,3.6791,4.1839,5.1829,3.4299,0.0,0.2148,0.308,0.0,0.6575,0.0499,0.8347],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.5}],"guides":[{"label":"Range 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quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,39.7217,37.5774,35.4175,33.4119,32.6077,32.196,32.1492,31.0368,29.1718,27.7575,26.9301,25.8039,24.4841,23.1354,21.7934,21.3694,20.7647,21.2357,22.1359,21.6114,21.1243,19.9814,18.5761,17.9426,17.1721,18.2442,19.0921,20.4397,21.8537,23.1884,24.4278,25.7442],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive 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