{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UPSS34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4bb28216-e17a-44cb-a634-c1ab60f0c6e3","symbol":"UPSS34","name":"United Parcel Service, Inc.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Integrated Freight & Logistics"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has not yet established a clear direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":22,"completedEpisodes":20,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":4.7,"averageExpectedMove":6.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":47.6,"averageReturn":-1.1,"medianReturn":-0.6,"confidenceLow":28.3,"confidenceHigh":67.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":20,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":45.0,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-0.6,"confidenceLow":25.8,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":19,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":36.8,"averageReturn":-6.0,"medianReturn":-9.9,"confidenceLow":19.1,"confidenceHigh":59.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":22},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":20},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":20},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":20},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":20},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":20},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":20},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":20},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":20},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":20},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":20},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":20},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":20},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":20},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":20},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Support weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"Treat the weaker support as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.3% across 24 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-10-31","price":31.419512}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":44.841034}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[40.7758,41.4888,41.4147,40.924,40.998,42.4887,41.3684,43.7016,44.7201,45.646,45.4238,44.2479,45.168,45.4576,47.737,44.841,45.2147,44.841,45.168,44.5701,43.7387,46.289,45.7285,38.7128,38.2924,38.4138,39.2573,41.173,41.5883,39.3328,38.7949,37.6059,33.7368,33.6047,33.2649,32.6232,32.1891,32.1042,34.0943,32.0326,33.1684,32.5289,33.3593,32.6912,33.0444,33.3116,33.5216,32.7294,34.5524,27.9474,28.0906,28.6247,29.0502,28.7311,27.677,27.3579,27.0774,26.9807,27.9768,27.4836,28.2282,28.3153,31.4195,30.8973,29.8464,31.5105,31.2364,31.7454,33.1844,34.594,34.1241,32.9201,35.4358,35.7882,35.0443,34.1829,37.3153,37.3732,37.3237,36.8592,32.9449,32.0553,31.5314,31.8675,31.1361,31.7341,32.9296,33.137,33.305,30.5485,30.65,31.54,33.81,34.99,35.03,34.65,35.34,35.35,35.0264,36.8449,35.9357,32.8224,32.941,31.45],"consensus":[-16.4062,0.0,0.0,-21.1143,-8.802,33.9616,-24.1406,55.109,56.7239,41.7996,34.4791,0.0,30.5502,32.6456,64.6956,-28.0076,10.5099,-8.0589,0.0,-15.113,-35.0142,55.4971,0.0,-69.0503,-39.4569,-32.6411,-19.1941,31.3835,22.9551,-48.631,-35.2302,-51.6845,-78.6991,-36.609,-42.9669,-58.8592,-37.9987,-35.2863,18.3857,-65.3732,-8.4847,-31.2432,0.0,-25.3781,0.0,0.0,0.0,-32.9415,44.5375,-72.2046,-35.6991,-22.395,-15.6459,-23.568,-59.0871,-37.824,-44.0098,-39.579,16.9495,-39.0193,19.8353,0.0,65.246,24.7966,-13.5226,64.5698,19.2991,42.0887,67.5213,70.6651,21.6489,0.0,69.3707,53.1287,15.591,0.0,72.2457,28.786,29.1929,19.5112,-56.2239,-40.1996,-39.0778,-16.7209,-45.8185,0.0,23.1245,18.6645,15.1461,-49.9716,-23.6417,0.0,41.0727,25.1918,29.4648,21.7434,33.3712,21.9449,12.1295,65.8173,0.0,-57.8184,-27.6833,56.3537],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-7.9952,-29.0226,-64.9312,-37.3825,-47.7871,-41.4191,12.0434,-52.2489,16.6679,0.0,54.796,21.0295,-21.7227,64.03,19.1638,38.9069,61.274,75.4262,5.4606,0.0,74.2731,56.5696,6.1985,0.0,70.7519,20.4952,23.5605,12.767,-54.5093,-36.841,-37.4444,-7.4848,-51.7085,0.0,27.1971,22.9649,8.551,-50.5227,-16.0752,0.0,49.7131,13.9155,24.9194,14.9931,32.8159,23.5268,13.5177,64.8194,0.0,-50.0619,-25.9782,53.7497],"force":[-23.6934,-13.6722,-75.0726,-23.3287,-25.8115,-21.7894,72.3898,-41.1972,47.2927,0.0,90.3802,10.854,-64.7494,75.6393,5.3311,44.0751,84.0535,67.1631,12.232,0.0,69.2282,39.2226,15.0771,0.0,92.7622,9.1996,3.9009,9.8261,-80.9931,-33.6997,-22.5074,-14.2363,-31.3895,0.0,42.5143,25.7645,23.7772,-58.9902,-6.0883,0.0,54.8134,12.4713,10.8494,3.5121,18.8538,2.4768,6.395,80.6235,0.0,-93.4586,-15.6101,63.9493],"direction":[-52.489,-24.4027,-40.9899,-48.6823,-52.6918,-50.1829,17.0437,-22.344,3.8427,0.0,59.236,54.5667,-32.4395,57.28,29.4309,44.3063,62.8524,67.7252,64.3505,0.0,63.8699,59.129,48.2312,0.0,59.2982,52.2515,53.6958,48.1741,-40.4911,-48.681,-52.7805,-49.3888,-49.3935,0.0,4.6202,8.6783,16.5183,-42.8999,-44.8272,0.0,21.3833,47.1651,47.9563,42.4805,44.3753,34.0428,23.7748,56.382,0.0,-41.2257,-38.2558,53.9042],"intensity":[11.5385,7.6923,36.5385,57.6923,11.5385,5.7692,36.5385,34.6154,28.8462,32.6923,92.3077,65.3846,42.3077,67.3077,75.0,86.5385,65.3846,67.3077,34.6154,50.0,82.6923,63.4615,48.0769,32.6923,90.3846,88.4615,82.6923,44.2308,94.2308,96.1538,17.3077,9.6154,26.9231,23.0769,63.4615,51.9231,48.0769,88.4615,19.2308,40.3846,78.8462,90.3846,3.8462,15.3846,25.0,1.9231,9.6154,73.0769,50.0,90.3846,76.9231,71.1538],"confirmation":[8.9789,75.1571,87.306,79.6686,81.471,80.0951,33.4909,80.3509,52.5657,3.2,89.804,31.888,35.3506,89.0079,51.0854,81.5774,90.2059,90.4335,8.7513,32.7724,90.1196,84.5249,7.4141,6.5144,91.7666,76.7409,53.9901,30.2152,86.7726,80.717,80.0248,7.5851,82.1324,29.4108,53.262,74.1235,73.2103,84.2574,52.479,30.1261,81.4304,75.8455,76.9307,51.8385,78.2448,51.7383,49.9933,89.528,11.1362,87.7063,76.5167,86.3043],"persistence":[50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[41.8034,31.0382,19.0351,10.1447,16.7808,16.5754,0.7616,22.7797,16.6604,31.9106,17.2904,37.4943,52.4001,17.3713,17.7122,11.9902,16.0203,14.3075,38.6063,37.8054,12.3014,9.7287,21.9845,36.8444,7.8558,27.5496,32.7032,38.7346,21.2604,29.7105,30.3743,41.4055,17.2797,9.9984,24.9154,25.0837,37.2657,10.526,34.9796,42.1243,4.9149,37.3493,35.22,38.7062,26.8574,4.6784,6.225,14.7801,25.6583,17.7237,32.4079,21.7871],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":56.4,"control":53.7,"force":63.9,"direction":53.9,"confirmation":86.3,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":21.8,"intensity":71.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+56.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+53.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+63.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+53.9","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"86/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"41.8","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.9%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"24%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range 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