{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GQGU Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"4cd98dc1-6394-4d1e-93e4-dd571277a3f6","symbol":"GQGU","name":"GQG US EQUITY ETF","exchange":"NYSEARCA","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":58,"displayedObservations":58,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":2.7,"averageExpectedMove":2.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":1.5,"medianReturn":2.5,"confidenceLow":6.1,"confidenceHigh":79.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":1.2,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":1.9,"medianReturn":1.9,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -2.8% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 0.9% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 2.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-02-06","price":26.29},{"date":"2026-05-15","price":26.365},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":25.975}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-03-20","price":26.38},{"date":"2026-06-05","price":26.23},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":25.94}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[24.616,24.6853,24.4675,24.8187,25.0268,25.2849,25.0397,24.779,24.8922,24.6301,24.8583,24.9623,24.9059,24.8259,24.7288,23.722,24.1722,24.5971,24.6002,24.8476,24.1108,24.4625,24.2826,24.593,24.53,24.453,24.8554,24.8594,25.49,26.29,27.0396,26.7999,27.4481,26.9371,26.9933,26.38,26.76,26.76,26.43,26.1,26.1499,26.53,25.87,26.365,26.68,26.34,26.23,26.12,25.14,25.99,25.917,25.975,25.94,25.99,26.22,26.78,26.74,26.06],"consensus":[-91.8975,-29.6975,-19.5123,39.3097,60.7094,57.3609,11.7975,-25.796,14.9353,-43.7788,27.2885,29.2208,0.0,0.0,-24.2699,-75.1512,8.4065,20.7245,0.0,46.6809,-56.3938,23.0724,-37.9877,24.4869,0.0,0.0,49.9263,29.2886,70.0947,77.9964,80.7855,24.0503,80.0987,10.1839,39.2635,-27.9503,37.5279,10.4496,-18.2715,-27.8307,-11.9531,28.9714,-53.3149,30.8594,33.3154,-16.0491,-10.205,-15.1784,-66.3625,24.3867,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.896,53.4091,21.2954,38.3819],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[8.3837,-29.6152,15.3558,-37.7634,31.2714,27.3323,0.0,0.0,-24.9916,-71.185,20.3878,31.6852,0.0,41.8431,-58.4183,28.971,-36.3162,35.5306,0.0,0.0,47.2738,33.4953,76.4731,77.1004,82.3718,11.6551,79.3161,0.1974,46.7303,-26.2328,44.4382,12.6843,-14.1284,-26.2025,-5.7955,31.0415,-47.0079,31.5151,26.6473,-13.1939,-17.8798,-11.4845,-68.9051,34.8376,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,27.7167,55.0224,15.9149,40.5232],"force":[15.0161,-45.2887,35.883,-52.045,66.5451,32.6009,0.0,0.0,-28.5535,-77.7585,72.1276,50.6925,0.0,71.8628,-87.9324,64.7443,-52.6175,49.2174,0.0,0.0,71.2031,20.17,75.6333,93.3949,88.7851,21.9947,88.942,48.074,21.8566,-83.2776,57.5687,9.0237,-43.0404,-44.2553,-6.6274,61.5261,-88.365,58.7002,50.3049,-32.5078,-16.1788,-14.4592,-72.4853,70.7314,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.6289,63.6773,0.1511,79.03],"direction":[54.0144,-7.5079,0.5079,-44.7492,5.3038,28.9648,0.0,0.0,-20.3856,-77.8216,50.8014,13.2077,0.0,34.2228,-31.5525,13.4345,-29.4481,5.7991,0.0,0.0,37.76,30.9943,58.8491,68.0214,73.2586,71.1055,74.6764,63.6611,43.1635,-9.6062,15.3156,21.8051,-5.3143,-17.9596,-22.7944,3.3522,-35.4872,10.2236,28.8009,-7.5561,-2.8331,-19.9138,-59.0832,20.6606,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,15.4346,44.2308,42.5476,6.9004],"intensity":[33.3333,57.1429,25.0,55.5556,60.0,45.4545,16.6667,23.0769,14.2857,100.0,93.75,88.2353,72.2222,36.8421,95.0,76.1905,77.2727,65.2174,12.5,56.0,80.7692,25.9259,92.8571,96.5517,93.3333,77.4194,87.5,72.7273,58.8235,82.8571,61.1111,13.5135,55.2632,69.2308,7.5,63.4146,90.4762,69.7674,75.0,66.6667,10.8696,46.8085,97.9167,93.8776,18.0,45.098,19.2308,1.9231,21.1538,82.6923,30.7692,88.4615],"confirmation":[30.9242,54.1239,50.853,82.3528,56.3328,77.4824,2.4465,24.6829,75.8859,92.1883,37.9538,32.8624,23.8741,83.7791,86.9763,34.096,80.6274,54.9917,24.9025,0.7336,84.6653,77.0304,90.5019,93.4418,94.071,33.8406,93.913,11.9395,79.92,35.3724,80.5144,27.3081,51.9982,77.4312,26.4232,55.5648,86.2251,78.7135,79.2803,51.0142,49.2685,72.8915,89.3839,36.1312,25.3983,3.0725,25.4148,24.3047,76.6166,85.3793,51.5854,58.8217],"persistence":[14.2857,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[43.4245,4.7673,33.9556,27.7361,46.2667,19.2013,3.3117,35.8157,15.3272,12.3578,52.7281,38.0994,15.8182,26.4669,20.661,27.1393,13.2604,39.3891,36.7668,0.0274,18.4198,12.8063,14.5564,10.9951,9.605,37.9648,9.9369,40.9302,25.3007,22.5659,64.1779,23.8984,32.6508,12.4615,36.8455,37.6091,15.7501,12.6026,25.7171,14.7063,42.736,21.6093,16.7558,43.5986,25.818,14.9496,49.2826,0.0183,16.2939,20.8461,37.1873,26.9015],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":38.4,"control":40.5,"force":79.0,"direction":6.9,"confirmation":58.8,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":26.9,"intensity":88.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+38.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+40.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+79.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+6.9","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"59/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"49.9","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.3%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.0","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"40%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[24.616,24.6853,24.4675,24.8187,25.0268,25.2849,25.0397,24.779,24.8922,24.6301,24.8583,24.9623,24.9059,24.8259,24.7288,23.722,24.1722,24.5971,24.6002,24.8476,24.1108,24.4625,24.2826,24.593,24.53,24.453,24.8554,24.8594,25.49,26.29,27.0396,26.7999,27.4481,26.9371,26.9933,26.38,26.76,26.76,26.43,26.1,26.1499,26.53,25.87,26.365,26.68,26.34,26.23,26.12,25.14,25.99,25.917,25.975,25.94,25.99,26.22,26.78,26.74,26.06],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,66.9221,565.8954,20.6297,105.513,50.9342,54.4918,51.6809,41.2077,35.428,155.9602,47.3483,174.8131,96.1901,137.9135,79.2315,102.7148,71.1037,50.862,44.7027,74.0843,57.4237,61.3008,248.1161,105.0651,68.7991,394.2263,86.8161,431.0679,97.2178,330.77,106.8426,55.2589,69.0568,48.6499,182.2228,176.6429,69.3307,122.8575,55.3964,61.7044,63.4648,43.6122,74.6374,47.1663,89.6069,66.148,134.486,71.2991,69.9467,139.5647,229.0005],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1.4866,1.4659,1.7374,1.7841,1.8077,1.7876,1.7791,1.9208,1.9256,1.9231,1.8667,1.8514,1.859,1.8405,1.7748,1.784,1.9071,2.0058,2.0124,2.0093,2.116,2.1376,2.2693,2.2455,2.2639,2.3555,2.3969,2.3689,2.3432,2.4784,2.4262,2.4043,2.4173,2.4147,2.3966,2.6048,2.5733,2.574,2.5159,2.4137,2.3331,2.2755,2.2502,2.1834,2.2941],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope width","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,3.7236,3.5534,3.4534,3.3299,3.2098,3.1352,5.3098,5.6306,5.4958,5.3689,5.252,5.6779,5.7411,5.8715,5.857,5.7219,5.2332,5.0684,5.1149,5.9392,8.342,11.6726,13.5471,16.1206,17.3232,18.3058,17.7146,17.6507,17.7374,17.4787,17.1981,16.1053,15.3608,14.1101,13.1028,11.8453,9.987,8.5197,6.6716,7.3387,7.4911,7.4151,7.4125,6.4904,6.1419,5.5451,5.8481,5.8269,5.5266],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"directional","eyebrow":"Trend 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