{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"VTS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4d1dc3ec-1d3f-40ee-9bad-5d57d75adbeb","symbol":"VTS","name":"Vitesse Energy Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Energy","industry":"Oil & Gas E&P"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":9,"completedEpisodes":9,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":11.0,"averageExpectedMove":8.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":9,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":55.6,"averageReturn":2.4,"medianReturn":2.6,"confidenceLow":26.7,"confidenceHigh":81.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":9,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":55.6,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":1.0,"confidenceLow":26.7,"confidenceHigh":81.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":8,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":-1.2,"confidenceLow":21.5,"confidenceHigh":78.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":18.0,"averageExpectedMove":18.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-7.2,"medianReturn":-7.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.1,"medianReturn":-13.1,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-15.9,"medianReturn":-15.9,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.8,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-16.8,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-17.4,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-15.3,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.1,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-20.5,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-19.9,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-15.1,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-17.3,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing while price remains rotational","use":"The repair is constructive, but price has not yet established a clear response.","confirm":"Treat the repair as constructive context until price confirms it.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.6% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":22.714772},{"date":"2025-09-05","price":23.124601}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-11-22","price":23.831892},{"date":"2025-01-17","price":23.609138}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[20.777,21.4146,20.1476,20.3629,21.0391,20.362,21.6992,21.7415,21.1576,21.2337,20.9037,23.0702,22.8756,23.8319,23.7642,22.7148,22.9602,20.8382,21.1748,22.3402,22.6855,23.6091,22.8409,22.3402,22.4783,23.1862,22.72,22.1935,20.5792,20.2167,20.2447,21.8544,19.1834,18.0602,18.6616,18.8296,18.8827,18.9535,19.9617,18.4228,18.5112,19.9529,21.5802,21.015,20.363,20.9516,21.4948,21.4586,21.9838,20.9516,22.4999,22.9073,23.7131,24.0934,23.1246,22.7081,21.4958,22.3853,21.6996,20.4673,20.4951,20.3191,20.1523,19.5686,19.5778,19.1887,19.6056,19.9485,20.1152,18.456,18.1704,18.9509,18.6273,18.2751,18.5892,19.9504,20.5215,20.8546,21.6541,18.3798,18.5988,18.8367,19.3606,18.0173,17.6085,17.8519,17.2776,17.5598,18.2704,17.336,18.0076,17.6377,16.8201,17.151,16.6935,16.01,15.79,15.48,15.47,15.91,15.8,15.6,15.8,16.22],"consensus":[13.6286,45.9704,-22.7135,8.7045,34.0059,-24.5554,54.7588,24.934,0.0,17.0174,-13.8828,64.2767,21.6214,59.8079,33.8597,-17.1733,12.2543,-60.63,-13.2031,33.112,13.125,56.292,0.0,-17.5667,0.0,30.5234,-17.2312,-24.0916,-66.2849,-54.6082,-38.7161,31.1659,-66.4989,-60.2264,-14.2867,-23.1992,-15.5606,0.0,25.1325,-49.0166,-23.8199,39.2285,60.9344,0.0,0.0,34.6612,32.5809,24.1758,41.5395,-20.7478,49.1239,38.2061,54.1073,44.1913,0.0,-9.6061,-48.2224,16.5634,-28.1278,-55.7136,-30.9404,-31.1111,-33.7602,-36.2591,-29.1598,-40.725,0.0,0.0,0.0,-63.8025,-44.3243,0.0,-33.1704,-37.8337,0.0,45.5201,48.3086,40.2608,55.5375,-59.7578,-14.3701,-14.4422,8.2437,-44.006,-38.6235,-10.1595,-44.0181,-12.1491,17.1235,-42.4648,18.8264,-22.7704,-44.0362,-10.5715,-37.4785,-48.1731,-34.7833,-48.0549,-30.7685,0.0,-19.0849,0.0,0.0,-14.5358],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[56.2992,38.6299,0.0,-13.583,-42.1905,27.5404,-24.0632,-56.3916,-33.2453,-25.2814,-31.1337,-28.2602,-28.0687,-39.4616,0.0,0.0,0.0,-63.9957,-45.6977,0.0,-27.3022,-44.7423,0.0,44.5849,47.3525,37.4693,55.6434,-54.3326,-8.2933,-8.3316,20.7666,-40.9288,-38.1146,-5.2368,-41.6597,-10.8826,14.8326,-42.1636,19.3837,-30.2295,-43.6696,-13.8852,-34.2288,-46.8059,-33.7429,-53.0446,-28.5359,0.0,-23.7704,0.0,0.0,-13.3859],"force":[49.819,32.0948,0.0,-35.1887,-83.565,35.911,-40.1515,-67.3016,-15.2191,-18.8392,-21.109,-36.171,-10.5993,-32.3704,0.0,0.0,0.0,-89.0168,-30.2719,0.0,-29.3405,-35.1672,0.0,71.5276,57.092,33.0069,53.8236,-96.3665,-6.4132,-0.0393,28.3142,-69.4285,-37.9817,-15.4708,-44.9271,-8.3765,40.8548,-62.1652,40.4538,-25.4253,-47.9002,-8.9755,-40.9783,-50.6799,-21.7926,-35.8802,-12.427,0.0,-9.3522,0.0,0.0,-30.9219],"direction":[54.6653,59.1875,0.0,-13.2122,-29.8712,9.8015,-24.1847,-46.6616,-39.5357,-46.5394,-45.7984,-45.4636,-43.6643,-48.1364,0.0,0.0,0.0,-45.5714,-52.7923,0.0,-42.6125,-31.8427,0.0,28.0121,43.1275,48.6323,56.6406,-39.8089,-36.1603,-31.7135,20.4042,-29.3638,-39.6635,-34.0929,-46.0639,-28.2576,2.7909,-28.7374,2.7413,-12.3494,-41.6951,-20.7467,-38.6926,-47.945,-45.2515,-51.0486,-46.4212,0.0,-20.6819,0.0,0.0,-4.1458],"intensity":[48.0769,69.2308,59.6154,17.3077,65.3846,50.0,32.6923,71.1538,42.3077,17.3077,7.6923,80.7692,51.9231,11.5385,9.6154,51.9231,9.6154,90.3846,78.8462,48.0769,11.5385,13.4615,9.6154,78.8462,53.8462,38.4615,48.0769,100.0,96.1538,90.3846,19.2308,75.0,32.6923,13.4615,25.0,7.6923,40.3846,61.5385,38.4615,17.3077,71.1538,21.1538,34.6154,75.0,19.2308,7.6923,28.8462,28.8462,30.7692,69.2308,28.8462,55.7692],"confirmation":[85.1502,81.8573,32.5195,29.2783,84.6002,30.4803,77.4293,86.1712,77.3867,77.6704,78.4577,79.7221,76.7821,80.7966,29.8798,3.5197,24.6697,89.1823,81.7346,33.0002,78.5872,79.9202,4.4204,83.3733,83.741,80.7049,85.7181,88.3209,50.7591,49.609,30.0784,82.9036,80.3477,5.8454,82.1494,27.7351,51.571,82.1937,52.0084,75.2538,82.2149,27.3181,80.1493,83.5126,78.7506,82.9305,77.321,5.3584,73.7392,25.7538,4.0485,50.5017],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,62.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[21.5698,27.8638,34.0137,8.3568,25.4977,56.8755,32.9035,21.5461,25.2765,33.6347,30.881,25.1628,29.522,27.5532,35.3714,27.8929,35.64,8.2522,27.1516,48.3847,32.8985,3.4617,31.3003,21.7285,25.4049,29.8053,22.2135,13.8885,39.3525,39.8144,52.7464,6.5648,16.1925,30.2725,25.5967,13.2415,18.9308,1.1627,19.8709,15.0952,26.9437,8.7372,29.647,25.3918,30.5238,25.785,33.7059,8.6831,10.5015,16.2558,30.591,25.9324],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-14.5,"control":-13.4,"force":-30.9,"direction":-4.1,"confirmation":50.5,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":25.9,"intensity":55.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-14.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-13.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-30.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-4.1","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"51/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"42.3","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.7%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"34.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"18%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}