{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CALN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4d700cb2-a618-4773-b8ad-af1af59acfa4","symbol":"CALN","name":"CALIDA Holding AG","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CHF","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Apparel Manufacturing"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price has no clear direction","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":6.8,"averageExpectedMove":11.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":58.8,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":1.3,"confidenceLow":36.0,"confidenceHigh":78.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":3.1,"medianReturn":-1.1,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-4.8,"medianReturn":-10.7,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":29.5,"averageExpectedMove":29.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.0,"medianReturn":-13.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-29.5,"medianReturn":-29.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-39.6,"medianReturn":-39.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-12.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-13.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-14.0,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-19.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-22.8,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-25.6,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-25.9,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-24.1,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-27.6,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-29.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-31.0,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-24.8,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-27.2,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-29.6,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-29.0,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-29.9,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-30.6,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-29.6,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-32.1,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-32.1,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-31.5,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-31.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-33.2,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-39.6,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"accumulation","zoneContext":"Price is within accumulation conditions, but the completed tape has not yet confirmed a recovery. The zone is a watch area rather than a directional signal.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":87.5,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 87.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -13.1% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 37.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 15.6% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 9.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":15.224041}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-09-20","price":30.930565}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[26.921,26.7301,26.921,26.1096,30.9306,27.6848,27.6848,27.0165,26.921,26.5869,24.7731,23.8662,23.007,22.9115,23.4843,22.3865,21.8137,21.3364,23.2457,22.5297,21.766,21.9569,21.6705,21.4796,21.766,21.0022,21.0022,21.1932,21.2886,20.6681,18.6729,17.6228,15.9235,15.6944,15.4604,15.5785,15.7164,16.4451,17.8828,16.9769,16.7799,15.9724,16.0512,15.8346,14.968,15.7361,15.4998,15.0074,15.0862,14.1408,14.003,13.4712,13.806,14.3181,14.1802,14.3378,13.6878,12.6637,12.7622,13.9242,13.7863,13.9833,13.3924,13.1561,13.1167,11.935,12.0729,11.8169,11.8169,11.4033,11.7184,11.7184,11.5214,12.8213,12.4274,11.9744,11.9547,11.6396,12.0532,12.7031,12.388,11.8562,11.9744,12.5849,12.7425,13.2349,15.224,16.66,15.7,16.64,16.72,17.34,17.18,16.82,17.46,18.5,20.25,19.18,18.62,18.54,16.24,15.48,15.4,14.58],"consensus":[-12.0522,-34.5282,-9.3254,-41.5075,67.6964,-10.4721,0.0,-22.9302,-26.4414,-20.7837,-63.5374,-53.1694,-60.3323,-34.7953,-8.8026,-53.1033,-52.2196,-39.9957,18.8547,-36.8107,-38.9561,-9.581,-29.8443,-30.3694,-11.9732,-40.2488,-16.2472,-17.1585,-17.2611,-32.4034,-65.9787,-69.5497,-75.2939,-42.6646,-48.5136,-36.772,-24.8076,11.8341,38.9948,-26.0188,-8.9163,-40.1384,-23.7336,-23.0205,-46.4073,8.5359,-21.1019,-42.5558,0.0,-60.6642,-34.6387,-49.7823,-12.3746,0.0,-11.2041,0.0,-36.9428,-60.3558,-17.5933,21.6988,0.0,20.0164,-25.4373,-23.0702,-10.5403,-64.0742,-21.9081,-38.1056,-23.9062,-42.8405,0.0,-19.888,-29.562,52.4689,0.0,-27.1198,0.0,-41.4081,15.6783,44.722,0.0,-30.9332,0.0,34.2017,21.499,54.2601,73.5349,77.1817,15.1413,70.2503,41.5902,59.2605,31.0488,18.2951,53.7434,57.4117,73.3317,16.7408,21.9638,19.4798,-54.8516,-52.4124,-35.15,-62.6423],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-1.667,0.0,-16.2999,0.0,-48.4082,-70.3332,-7.2466,30.0039,0.0,14.2313,-40.3406,-22.8513,-4.4771,-71.1472,-16.9356,-37.7466,-17.3324,-47.108,0.0,-25.6782,-32.8186,42.8984,0.0,-38.1255,0.0,-43.8383,14.4963,34.6377,0.0,-44.1075,0.0,34.3637,17.977,53.8222,66.5533,73.3378,9.0705,70.1968,35.2225,62.4878,22.0844,14.6692,62.4921,53.3088,80.0634,0.6136,13.5205,21.559,-43.6277,-45.4882,-29.4824,-62.6917],"force":[-12.7309,0.0,-2.6504,0.0,-39.1537,-59.887,-6.4023,50.8388,0.0,28.7825,-36.2518,-17.062,-1.0586,-72.2804,-3.0982,-25.2854,-4.4683,-37.4691,0.0,-4.7194,-23.7752,88.7331,0.0,-44.5288,0.0,-50.1217,50.3144,71.6895,0.0,-49.3322,0.0,58.7133,13.9445,57.576,91.3793,87.9839,48.4747,69.7689,17.3066,51.7997,2.1046,13.4602,35.0683,53.9078,62.5131,26.4942,9.812,3.4015,-90.1739,-62.7654,-17.0217,-63.4363],"direction":[-42.5443,0.0,-11.4901,0.0,-22.2601,-49.288,-46.5578,8.607,0.0,20.3663,-0.6804,-27.6119,-25.7548,-50.1293,-45.4526,-47.673,-45.3035,-41.7999,0.0,-24.1053,-29.9737,37.5036,0.0,-2.1068,0.0,-32.4067,7.711,36.9844,0.0,-2.7346,0.0,16.5083,30.9203,52.3921,68.7678,73.8588,67.5194,70.6551,66.2132,60.9013,64.9748,45.1212,57.0844,64.6033,73.3658,66.0539,54.3104,33.4474,-42.4486,-52.9305,-54.5759,-62.0185],"intensity":[11.5385,61.5385,13.4615,21.1538,30.7692,65.3846,61.5385,82.6923,26.9231,13.4615,28.8462,65.3846,13.4615,78.8462,50.0,11.5385,28.8462,21.1538,13.4615,34.6154,15.3846,88.4615,26.9231,25.0,17.3077,15.3846,26.9231,61.5385,13.4615,46.1538,9.6154,55.7692,75.0,46.1538,100.0,98.0769,78.8462,75.0,46.1538,51.9231,44.2308,30.7692,55.7692,90.3846,96.1538,84.6154,69.2308,46.1538,98.0769,96.1538,21.1538,65.3846],"confirmation":[6.0738,4.1004,48.5803,2.7673,79.7144,87.1475,29.0887,32.208,1.3214,74.7606,53.5758,75.2027,26.0043,88.6461,52.3186,79.8085,52.4911,81.4802,6.9495,51.147,77.2339,86.0411,30.267,54.3745,1.7269,81.4791,53.069,83.2866,4.7336,55.5919,24.3628,79.6891,74.7031,85.471,92.1814,93.0859,36.0069,90.4662,80.6658,86.6868,54.8441,30.4801,84.4954,86.3275,91.0338,9.9373,30.9486,51.5635,86.8,85.193,78.7819,88.069],"persistence":[62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[43.3626,15.2294,23.1497,47.1824,6.9997,19.6412,41.0011,41.1558,10.5735,38.927,53.5807,32.6812,37.2068,17.8508,38.0038,29.9705,36.9769,15.4364,28.6869,0.5434,18.1865,23.2219,47.0174,35.7584,33.5163,28.0681,41.5674,22.8541,35.2883,35.3765,8.4817,28.3059,18.9472,22.3602,13.2275,11.4081,42.3856,14.8591,27.3079,6.035,32.3662,2.2698,11.3574,17.0322,13.2799,41.0253,30.6981,7.4125,22.5344,23.7272,32.2912,18.6452],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-62.6,"control":-62.7,"force":-63.4,"direction":-62.0,"confirmation":88.1,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":18.6,"intensity":65.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-62.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-62.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-63.4","detail":"Downward 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