{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"EXO Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4dbd4e84-fafd-4baf-8814-2a05f00163ca","symbol":"EXO","name":"Exor N.V.","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":5.1,"averageExpectedMove":6.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":61.9,"averageReturn":0.8,"medianReturn":1.6,"confidenceLow":40.9,"confidenceHigh":79.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":36.8,"averageReturn":-0.3,"medianReturn":-2.7,"confidenceLow":19.1,"confidenceHigh":59.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":-1.7,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":18},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":18},{"week":19,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":18},{"week":20,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":18},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Positive support; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is positive while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the improvement as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is constructive, but a positive price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":36.8,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 36.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.3% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.1% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":71.329193}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[96.7745,99.5874,96.1329,96.9719,96.3797,98.8965,95.2447,95.442,97.2186,98.4524,96.7251,93.32,93.0239,94.0109,91.9876,94.4057,93.3694,86.263,87.25,86.6085,88.8292,90.1123,88.9773,90.7045,90.7538,94.7512,93.2213,91.4447,91.1486,87.8916,88.6812,87.9903,75.6529,74.6165,76.7879,81.7229,83.006,84.4371,86.7565,83.3514,84.1853,84.1357,80.81,81.1078,84.1853,86.0219,89.0498,89.2484,90.0426,82.5969,86.1708,86.8161,86.2701,85.2774,84.5824,83.5897,82.6466,81.356,85.9226,79.1223,75.1513,75.8462,74.6053,72.9672,73.2651,70.0386,71.8752,72.2723,71.7263,71.9248,71.8752,72.4709,75.4491,72.0241,68.4999,68.897,67.2093,71.9745,71.9745,73.8607,70.1875,70.2372,63.7843,63.4368,65.7698,69.5422,71.3292,67.9042,65.472,68.4999,65.5712,67.11,67.05,65.75,66.6,66.3,66.55,69.1,68.45,68.95,68.05,69.45,70.7,70.75],"consensus":[39.2954,60.5549,-19.4105,23.96,-11.4002,44.7581,-33.9694,0.0,24.4002,30.9457,-12.7238,-47.2521,-31.7593,0.0,-58.935,27.177,-19.9144,-77.4683,-28.0053,-58.1757,0.0,23.8361,-29.0327,34.4827,21.846,62.5911,0.0,-20.0274,-15.5282,-55.6272,-24.7501,-42.9158,-83.3879,-46.4523,-30.0559,0.0,20.4915,31.2967,36.3512,-31.7085,0.0,11.9862,-54.2264,-13.8638,35.0299,33.3659,64.334,51.5187,48.0283,-55.7699,26.9294,13.1059,-16.4018,-8.4203,-22.5902,-26.3025,-35.5262,-48.5702,44.8864,-59.2814,-61.7413,-21.0239,-62.2831,-62.5678,-44.1699,-69.6903,-12.5896,-13.3407,-29.0353,0.0,-25.1403,0.0,50.3073,-43.4897,-63.7816,-31.9852,-53.4975,23.5492,17.4053,36.0034,-19.7185,0.0,-64.3465,-31.2229,-8.3018,25.4146,41.9451,-17.742,-46.6599,21.3872,-42.8859,20.5309,0.0,-31.3329,0.0,-20.1709,0.0,44.2537,23.6595,25.7947,0.0,19.9593,30.0274,33.3765],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-10.3661,-20.3706,-22.7029,-21.4929,-32.073,-48.0104,45.4654,-51.5476,-61.5728,-8.1811,-63.4289,-63.7116,-46.1681,-70.6295,-2.1438,-9.508,-26.35,0.0,-31.843,0.0,45.6769,-52.0203,-67.6722,-27.3825,-49.5119,34.5465,13.5062,35.5492,-38.8795,0.0,-77.8835,-24.8792,-6.5268,40.4679,43.277,-37.7696,-50.6231,34.0769,-46.8046,21.9775,0.0,-37.0479,0.0,-28.6049,0.0,53.1707,25.9802,22.4812,0.0,21.8907,27.1216,31.8194],"force":[-38.2866,-17.097,-30.3537,-27.3494,-37.3685,-53.8118,77.759,-85.2908,-63.5502,-10.5707,-61.1477,-59.8406,-31.2651,-76.0286,-26.7495,-17.4001,-12.7746,0.0,-9.3842,0.0,83.7641,-64.0302,-75.2858,-15.0302,-57.2648,36.7778,20.7466,30.8589,-18.7887,0.0,-53.185,-4.7582,-18.6758,35.2935,43.2256,-21.5133,-70.1843,37.5663,-41.9035,62.775,0.0,-25.1815,0.0,-15.6789,0.0,38.4785,15.7927,19.7449,0.0,10.6415,15.1801,24.6075],"direction":[-7.6677,-11.4347,-16.916,-31.0515,-38.1568,-45.4659,20.7443,-49.5418,-60.6419,-58.2688,-61.7845,-63.2085,-51.1038,-64.0895,-52.6272,-39.6786,-43.719,0.0,-28.7344,0.0,31.7015,-19.0686,-51.118,-49.3562,-55.3617,1.532,19.4749,40.1971,-1.5157,0.0,-56.8483,-57.3761,-44.5185,1.1544,39.5082,-7.8406,-25.3274,4.6719,-39.1093,11.2966,0.0,-29.1954,0.0,-13.7406,0.0,38.1879,26.6265,33.9027,0.0,24.4077,43.9534,41.4197],"intensity":[17.3077,25.0,9.6154,30.7692,5.7692,17.3077,82.6923,92.3077,98.0769,9.6154,17.3077,57.6923,55.7692,75.0,38.4615,9.6154,5.7692,3.8462,7.6923,5.7692,61.5385,69.2308,73.0769,44.2308,42.3077,84.6154,25.0,51.9231,73.0769,38.4615,90.3846,65.3846,46.1538,80.7692,38.4615,69.2308,57.6923,61.5385,57.6923,44.2308,53.8462,44.2308,32.6923,15.3846,32.6923,80.7692,7.6923,21.1538,11.5385,36.5385,50.0,21.1538],"confirmation":[51.3409,27.8829,75.4637,76.522,79.4771,83.7107,83.3567,87.8806,87.8149,30.8822,87.8785,87.9211,81.7106,90.4797,8.6955,29.7693,76.8366,6.1428,75.4626,29.4923,85.1885,82.4127,88.7014,77.7887,85.2948,53.1047,73.731,79.3712,51.6463,3.7542,88.0445,54.6148,7.4369,53.5377,81.4411,52.4932,83.5877,53.4736,81.6338,32.9119,23.934,77.752,4.0577,74.1893,26.9333,81.8493,75.2959,76.1204,26.6458,74.0736,77.2005,78.437],"persistence":[50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[35.4011,41.1826,14.1417,28.5727,25.8452,21.1493,0.4355,14.527,18.0663,36.0549,18.8316,18.0238,10.1424,14.1616,32.3642,6.0041,11.3739,31.2632,12.5701,1.6036,23.2039,24.5975,15.2341,31.6338,23.232,12.8202,37.2469,30.9161,51.9967,29.0778,17.4447,34.3052,40.7013,23.7003,28.3388,53.9064,18.5228,26.5423,26.5539,23.1688,25.9826,21.9648,19.4485,7.5542,14.8867,23.2812,24.9312,31.2908,35.7287,1.0924,31.318,30.1518],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":33.4,"control":31.8,"force":24.6,"direction":41.4,"confirmation":78.4,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":30.2,"intensity":21.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+33.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+31.8","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+24.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+41.4","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"78/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"53.9","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"3.7%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"71%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating 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