{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"STG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"4de0a48c-2a1d-4841-8dcb-52e27146d1fe","symbol":"STG","name":"Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S","exchange":"CPH","country":"DK","asset_type":"equity","currency":"DKK","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Tobacco"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.9,"averageExpectedMove":6.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":-2.1,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":-0.3,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":14.3,"averageReturn":-5.5,"medianReturn":-4.4,"confidenceLow":4.0,"confidenceHigh":39.9,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":46.7,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 46.7% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.3% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.7% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":66.699997}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[91.8935,90.5347,89.1758,89.1758,88.1567,87.9868,88.1567,90.3648,87.9868,87.6471,88.4964,87.4772,82.7212,82.7212,80.6829,81.6171,81.5322,79.8336,81.702,83.0609,82.5513,83.7403,85.0992,87.8169,88.8361,89.3457,90.8744,92.2333,92.2333,87.9868,86.2882,85.9485,83.4855,81.8878,83.942,87.7702,90.4781,91.4118,90.4781,78.7131,79.3667,81.0474,81.4209,80.1137,78.6197,78.8999,79.0866,79.8336,80.4872,79.18,80.8607,84.1287,85.3426,84.5022,85.1558,84.3155,83.4751,82.1679,80.954,80.3004,80.6739,81.0474,80.2071,79.8336,83.195,84.0353,85.7161,85.3426,86.3697,89.0775,88.1437,90.2913,89.2642,90.9449,90.7582,91.3184,95.0533,93.5593,95.6135,96.734,61.8127,63.4934,61.7193,61.4392,63.9602,64.5205,65.2,64.9,69.4,69.9,71.4,72.7,70.6,68.1,67.6,66.1,66.7,67.3,65.7,68.4,69.7,72.0,72.2,71.0],"consensus":[63.903,10.0793,0.0,0.0,-22.2357,0.0,0.0,39.9043,-27.7111,-13.371,17.8288,-29.1828,-56.6744,-31.364,-60.8709,-17.5364,-30.9163,-49.7337,10.0474,18.4322,-9.2058,22.0423,36.6681,56.7801,51.784,36.0772,56.6726,49.068,26.637,-32.0587,-36.9398,-26.6205,-62.5993,-43.5571,0.0,42.2079,56.0514,37.783,18.2003,-66.6869,-39.0157,-13.88,-29.172,-30.9099,-41.4788,-21.981,-23.4386,0.0,0.0,-33.4177,20.9942,52.7743,46.1659,16.6084,37.296,0.0,-14.5169,-29.246,-40.6447,-38.4156,-19.9161,0.0,-33.5415,-21.4547,43.8161,37.7253,53.4989,21.878,42.808,68.7326,34.642,62.2741,18.405,58.2492,38.0031,41.6857,75.8294,10.7847,62.7506,57.4607,-77.0954,-26.7602,-65.3269,-53.5528,-10.2912,-32.9818,0.0,-25.297,29.2635,0.0,22.4694,30.3779,-19.5026,-37.2072,-28.7173,-37.4567,-8.1214,-8.3265,-38.3379,31.1198,25.7815,42.9929,31.5616,4.6769],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[46.4125,9.6766,34.5739,0.0,-13.1663,-31.1279,-40.9111,-36.9287,-17.6223,0.0,-37.3445,-21.9739,33.6814,36.8503,53.8459,12.9837,41.1322,71.6787,35.4102,67.4374,11.2033,61.3569,37.6353,47.9684,80.5804,2.0294,66.4786,59.0746,-66.1991,-20.7696,-60.2616,-51.9623,-10.4362,-43.0859,0.0,-34.3219,26.8513,0.0,20.2817,24.4609,-28.4467,-42.4294,-30.1485,-39.2894,-4.7769,-7.2109,-48.3389,28.3322,18.3409,34.3713,25.7332,4.7912],"force":[40.3661,10.4296,29.7237,0.0,-34.1412,-39.6539,-47.2468,-38.4347,-4.5534,0.0,-39.0009,-15.9751,77.1672,37.0234,54.8632,1.4313,35.9338,74.4716,10.6659,54.5886,17.211,61.2313,20.2852,29.2765,84.0126,29.362,57.6371,46.7263,-99.9998,-31.9165,-55.8883,-21.7469,-40.3511,-3.6149,0.0,-0.153,83.8881,0.0,34.7633,41.6536,-33.8029,-42.3488,-17.1445,-24.307,-11.6533,-5.4429,-28.5561,60.1633,34.2159,51.4226,16.2357,19.2237],"direction":[50.0267,43.8433,45.8157,0.0,-2.0432,-19.661,-35.6245,-40.1012,-33.5109,0.0,-25.2958,-24.7754,31.5764,39.2267,52.1279,48.6924,49.6334,61.2663,50.89,61.8627,52.0755,52.5674,51.0792,43.3692,64.5546,54.1057,62.1425,63.2836,-73.188,-75.5187,-77.8576,-78.089,-46.2986,-47.5748,0.0,-32.943,6.9973,0.0,16.1883,29.0861,-0.9338,-27.5663,-35.3478,-44.7549,-36.9872,-19.4368,-33.8952,13.5601,28.2605,46.8249,49.1696,32.5693],"intensity":[50.0,32.6923,5.7692,19.2308,17.3077,36.5385,25.0,23.0769,3.8462,5.7692,34.6154,34.6154,94.2308,75.0,53.8462,36.5385,17.3077,78.8462,11.5385,65.3846,19.2308,51.9231,44.2308,63.4615,86.5385,57.6923,65.3846,28.8462,100.0,98.0769,55.7692,23.0769,73.0769,80.7692,40.3846,9.6154,90.3846,88.4615,51.9231,53.8462,76.9231,86.5385,76.9231,53.8462,7.6923,32.6923,55.7692,82.6923,86.5385,73.0769,59.6154,25.0],"confirmation":[82.5926,29.488,79.7454,5.4642,50.5974,77.6472,81.2035,80.3162,51.2732,3.1417,78.8417,74.6906,83.192,80.064,85.1559,52.0648,81.5146,90.1244,78.343,87.6148,31.2522,86.6833,79.6266,80.8655,92.4424,9.1197,87.8675,86.0357,93.5346,36.3418,88.6941,84.1918,33.0225,55.3894,8.291,52.5246,57.8919,25.2297,75.5982,78.1547,52.0729,79.9834,76.815,79.5575,5.6979,26.0897,79.8176,78.8859,76.6205,82.146,77.7214,6.0356],"persistence":[0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[26.8623,41.6602,31.2226,7.5745,37.4826,32.8854,29.4948,30.5311,38.5349,31.7978,9.1335,7.5228,26.4072,30.415,23.2323,39.0434,27.9126,15.5573,29.8493,18.7976,39.3026,14.3502,28.5211,11.2262,12.0412,41.5607,18.4364,21.1843,11.3488,36.4184,17.2506,23.159,16.1197,21.794,20.7349,29.8968,10.674,24.3246,16.9817,18.1744,15.9409,18.6977,34.0235,31.1987,44.5822,17.5812,20.2222,26.1775,32.8789,28.1957,34.1859,43.8257],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":4.7,"control":4.8,"force":19.2,"direction":32.6,"confirmation":6.0,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":43.8,"intensity":25.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+4.7","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+4.8","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+19.2","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+32.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"6/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"48.3","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.7%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"21.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"31%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating 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