{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AES Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"50a3b7b7-007c-4f84-982e-5051b56f1e2a","symbol":"AES","name":"The AES Corporation","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Diversified"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":7.2,"averageExpectedMove":11.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-1.2,"medianReturn":-0.0,"confidenceLow":29.0,"confidenceHigh":71.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":58.8,"averageReturn":2.9,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":36.0,"confidenceHigh":78.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":62.5,"averageReturn":2.3,"medianReturn":5.0,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":81.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":36.8,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 36.8% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -1.2% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 75.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.0% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-03-14","price":11.506139},{"date":"2025-05-09","price":10.577646},{"date":"2025-06-06","price":10.358864},{"date":"2025-06-27","price":10.197155}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[16.4405,15.5766,14.7219,16.8588,17.1861,18.25,17.1952,15.7494,15.8858,15.4221,13.5329,12.5118,12.8522,11.9966,11.9966,12.0058,12.2818,11.9598,11.7298,12.1714,11.0582,10.8742,10.6718,10.2817,9.8798,9.2816,9.8985,10.8332,10.5154,11.5061,12.1978,11.5996,10.0761,9.6274,9.5152,9.3937,9.6835,10.5776,11.6145,9.5028,9.5979,10.3589,10.882,9.9023,10.1972,10.9581,11.9759,12.7179,13.1269,12.7521,12.6461,12.8292,13.0027,13.0509,12.4629,12.4147,12.5786,12.7617,14.0533,13.5618,14.0533,14.0244,13.5386,13.7924,13.4898,13.4214,13.724,13.5874,13.4995,13.2067,13.7338,14.4659,13.9778,13.8509,13.9095,14.4717,15.8546,16.0818,16.309,17.0697,13.9778,14.0173,13.9284,13.8296,14.1259,14.2149,14.2939,14.3136,14.28,14.33,14.47,14.68,14.67,14.67,14.68,14.62,14.4963,14.4073,14.605,14.5951,14.6642,14.68,14.73,14.73],"consensus":[30.7032,-33.3657,-51.026,54.4218,27.0453,63.4006,0.0,-46.7464,-16.5481,-39.9364,-73.188,-70.2233,-25.2712,-71.0457,-34.5329,-37.3939,-25.1549,-28.3263,-35.0315,0.0,-64.3581,-40.7497,-36.498,-48.1515,-46.6181,-64.2121,-9.0248,29.0537,-8.768,45.9597,51.3347,0.0,-49.1738,-42.2248,-35.1734,-30.2054,0.0,37.6549,55.0502,-46.1473,0.0,24.7499,21.172,-32.0639,15.3395,41.8545,55.2253,61.0523,49.9807,22.216,22.7259,30.694,31.8282,30.1475,0.0,0.0,14.1196,14.7001,60.5738,0.0,39.8023,30.0048,-10.65,23.6906,-10.006,0.0,27.0875,0.0,0.0,-20.3164,29.9571,53.4716,-8.7257,0.0,12.3964,33.0581,72.6063,44.0142,53.5555,67.5863,-58.296,-24.628,-37.1019,-42.1754,9.2002,0.0,0.0,0.0,-9.7151,0.0,19.2585,29.6436,0.0,0.0,13.0794,0.0,-9.7685,-23.4853,21.0243,0.0,18.1835,17.9939,19.2604,-16.2041],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[41.3238,34.0956,0.0,0.0,21.2933,20.8172,50.9453,0.0,35.0877,27.0595,-8.901,23.0172,-6.9524,0.0,36.6625,0.0,0.0,-21.5572,41.6592,59.4408,-17.1051,0.0,13.2116,36.2493,71.7602,40.0828,58.1677,65.1368,-58.7006,-20.7005,-36.9947,-44.3989,15.2326,0.0,0.0,0.0,-14.8799,0.0,25.2809,33.0047,0.0,0.0,13.8034,0.0,-4.919,-23.8687,29.0823,0.0,20.2479,17.5534,21.4022,-18.5389],"force":[16.0356,11.7836,0.0,0.0,13.435,8.8183,84.4552,0.0,31.7208,10.5105,-38.0241,24.1679,-27.1993,0.0,26.5614,0.0,0.0,-28.0793,38.8704,58.8754,-39.7743,0.0,12.7921,43.1794,94.3556,28.2111,35.2717,75.9312,-83.7244,-8.336,-27.9049,-32.5466,32.3936,0.0,0.0,0.0,-7.0366,0.0,28.6509,36.0827,0.0,0.0,6.7134,0.0,-13.9764,-24.4807,37.3305,0.0,17.676,14.1646,16.4654,-8.749],"direction":[32.2567,38.7525,0.0,0.0,6.4101,11.9105,54.5197,0.0,50.9629,47.2952,-6.9041,24.1193,-1.2148,0.0,16.5203,0.0,0.0,-13.3534,10.2165,42.7898,-23.0285,0.0,11.1822,22.1814,58.0379,59.7952,61.3441,64.425,-39.6703,-40.7538,-43.7939,-46.512,14.2606,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.7258,0.0,5.6668,21.2031,0.0,0.0,16.7991,0.0,-12.3052,-22.3362,0.1679,0.0,16.1867,21.2324,18.809,-18.861],"intensity":[5.7692,13.4615,53.8462,21.1538,5.7692,36.5385,98.0769,75.0,30.7692,7.6923,32.6923,21.1538,15.3846,3.8462,32.6923,1.9231,1.9231,19.2308,48.0769,63.4615,42.3077,23.0769,17.3077,59.6154,90.3846,84.6154,13.4615,80.7692,100.0,1.9231,5.7692,7.6923,30.7692,21.1538,9.6154,5.7692,1.9231,13.4615,19.2308,32.6923,26.9231,1.9231,5.7692,7.6923,26.9231,17.3077,36.5385,42.3077,11.5385,1.9231,15.3846,5.7692],"confirmation":[77.559,77.0274,5.0836,24.5398,49.7214,72.4316,88.2582,31.9905,80.5623,77.0523,51.0751,75.6058,26.4391,24.5047,76.506,24.3225,24.778,74.7189,77.6796,85.1846,31.1902,25.7866,71.9665,78.8384,91.9097,81.6628,84.5102,89.9192,87.4235,75.4443,79.594,81.1688,29.2679,2.8386,25.4879,24.4234,25.6152,1.245,51.6905,77.631,25.6019,25.6704,49.3137,24.2945,48.6614,75.5398,52.4353,47.6414,73.7718,73.6481,74.0455,44.64],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[27.6373,10.8102,13.2182,34.84,44.5972,36.4565,19.5303,47.7863,29.9239,34.6004,34.771,11.0474,36.4124,40.7061,4.8152,20.6672,3.1383,11.6061,13.9555,22.2826,46.8776,45.3377,16.5159,15.7225,13.6405,27.983,23.2179,16.2039,18.36,35.9494,30.5209,28.7482,2.8038,9.1121,14.3522,20.3926,12.7189,6.6081,0.2139,4.8208,18.7793,47.6047,41.4005,24.003,41.1473,37.9863,42.4281,9.3099,37.5991,40.6194,33.1236,36.6801],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-16.2,"control":-18.5,"force":-8.7,"direction":-18.9,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":36.7,"intensity":5.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-16.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-18.5","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-8.7","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-18.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"56.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.1%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.5","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"25%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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