{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SAMF Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"5374b43d-255c-4822-b919-1f278f747c3c","symbol":"SAMF","name":"PT Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur, Tbk","exchange":"JKT","country":"ID","asset_type":"equity","currency":"IDR","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Agricultural Inputs"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":43.7,"averageExpectedMove":43.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-33.9,"medianReturn":-33.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-34.6,"medianReturn":-34.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-32.5,"medianReturn":-32.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-22.3,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-31.6,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-33.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-36.9,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-37.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-37.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-36.9,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-37.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-43.7,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-38.4,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-34.6,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-38.4,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-38.0,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-35.8,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-33.1,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-36.2,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-33.5,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-34.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-34.9,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-32.9,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-34.1,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-33.3,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-33.3,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-33.3,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-32.5,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Countertrend conflict","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing against a downward price structure","use":"The downside structure remains in place, but improving Market Dynamics weakens that case. A positive price response is needed to confirm the repair.","confirm":"This is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price remains in a downward structure","detail":"Improving Market Dynamics has not yet produced a positive price response."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.4% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-01-24","price":503.919495}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[385.6285,378.5311,378.5311,380.8969,378.5311,385.6285,380.8969,380.8969,380.8969,378.5311,380.8969,371.4336,366.702,345.4096,350.1412,354.8729,359.6045,364.3362,369.0678,359.6045,369.0678,357.2387,357.2387,503.9195,480.2613,391.7797,344.4633,333.1074,317.9661,316.0735,316.0735,317.9661,316.0735,283.8983,310.3955,329.322,310.3955,312.2881,323.6441,336.8927,321.7514,335.0,330.0,328.0,338.0,332.0,336.0,336.0,336.0,340.0,342.0,342.0,340.0,328.0,332.0,332.0,322.0,320.0,318.0,320.0,316.0,312.0,314.0,316.0,314.0,318.0,316.0,316.0,312.0,310.0,312.0,310.0,312.0,314.0,330.0,318.0,316.0,322.0,322.0,326.0,328.0,362.0,350.0,338.0,320.0,328.0,344.0,332.0,316.1241,312.269,306.4862,281.4276,279.5,258.2965,262.1517,281.4276,279.5,280.0,276.0,278.0,280.0,280.0,280.0,280.0],"consensus":[36.6938,0.0,11.6238,22.8999,12.704,43.7423,11.6326,12.3893,14.4556,0.0,0.0,-28.8811,-29.0355,-65.4014,-21.6072,-16.538,0.0,9.0169,21.8362,-17.4531,21.635,-33.3634,-13.1927,72.0035,17.1161,-31.7207,-50.5956,-43.6162,-50.5048,-31.15,-24.4499,-17.0974,-12.2837,-54.0546,0.0,18.3395,-33.2933,0.0,9.5318,17.6342,-17.3534,28.636,0.0,0.0,28.8443,-13.8839,15.7994,0.0,0.0,9.9949,9.1063,13.0276,8.5363,-24.9976,0.0,0.0,-33.363,-16.5204,-21.3162,0.0,-18.4577,-29.1128,-10.5068,0.0,-12.4914,9.9431,0.0,0.0,-16.3608,-17.5022,0.0,-17.8413,0.0,11.6836,43.806,-17.0903,0.0,18.4936,14.3828,24.5589,23.7661,62.5699,0.0,0.0,-32.0822,0.0,30.0641,-18.95,-28.3018,-32.6914,-37.3479,-60.7288,-34.4104,-62.0764,-27.8754,0.0,0.0,0.0,-26.0618,-13.5593,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.353],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[10.628,-25.6916,0.0,0.0,-30.2266,-16.3967,-22.2983,0.0,-15.4081,-30.6758,-11.9552,0.0,-13.7305,6.5951,0.0,0.0,-19.0786,-14.0631,0.0,-19.0477,0.0,10.9802,29.3273,-17.4954,0.0,14.8075,26.9409,25.1122,18.5819,49.9216,0.0,0.0,-32.496,0.0,32.2008,-23.2815,-35.8284,-38.0046,-38.5052,-57.9509,-29.7966,-71.5669,-17.9517,0.0,0.0,0.0,-45.3028,-14.1513,0.0,0.0,0.0,-8.2561],"force":[2.6408,-36.9233,0.0,0.0,-51.6336,-12.3783,-14.1025,0.0,-20.2213,-30.9904,-3.3934,0.0,-7.5018,27.175,0.0,0.0,-14.104,-15.2274,0.0,-13.8523,0.0,23.103,71.7711,-56.9188,0.0,25.7794,13.0134,25.9299,27.9023,90.0951,0.0,0.0,-54.8682,0.0,51.2754,-34.9823,-28.7675,-26.8822,-28.6238,-71.1047,-12.6563,-45.1903,-2.1624,0.0,0.0,0.0,-14.0077,-0.3667,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3907],"direction":[10.3567,-15.6862,0.0,0.0,-23.8969,-19.6206,-25.3464,0.0,-20.6833,-25.9853,-18.7803,0.0,-14.6394,1.4608,0.0,0.0,-14.8666,-23.0574,0.0,-19.3117,0.0,4.3308,40.3782,-11.8217,0.0,17.502,1.009,22.9471,26.7364,57.3641,0.0,0.0,-15.3336,0.0,12.4713,-2.5481,-19.3674,-30.7686,-42.2569,-56.4921,-55.2219,-63.2915,-60.6723,0.0,0.0,0.0,-12.6822,-22.8299,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.5796],"intensity":[44.2308,48.0769,86.5385,86.5385,26.9231,17.3077,5.7692,7.6923,7.6923,7.6923,1.9231,3.8462,5.7692,15.3846,17.3077,7.6923,21.1538,26.9231,28.8462,9.6154,11.5385,13.4615,82.6923,78.8462,55.7692,36.5385,51.9231,40.3846,63.4615,90.3846,71.1538,53.8462,76.9231,44.2308,78.8462,57.6923,84.6154,15.3846,38.4615,90.3846,80.7692,82.6923,30.7692,80.7692,46.1538,38.4615,30.7692,32.6923,15.3846,51.9231,44.2308,17.3077],"confirmation":[47.8534,76.3521,24.6532,23.8022,79.2808,73.1622,74.5864,25.7177,74.0067,77.3495,48.9738,2.7627,49.1596,26.4246,1.0075,1.5378,73.1253,73.5838,2.9072,73.5693,24.6514,49.4308,83.0908,31.8652,1.9441,74.1961,49.7027,75.8922,75.8102,89.054,9.7157,30.6247,78.9544,27.4566,78.2344,51.8199,76.9561,78.2032,79.6678,87.7918,78.4186,87.2052,53.9505,5.2058,3.7858,3.3043,75.6792,49.3171,48.2505,24.756,1.6,32.1841],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[22.0246,35.2898,44.4494,46.5532,33.1232,38.0071,39.0683,46.8044,33.7275,32.2915,30.2575,34.4756,14.7455,37.5821,26.1601,0.0918,17.5107,41.0581,44.8573,40.0166,0.5311,40.0607,28.042,52.1389,30.719,33.8603,50.5088,30.9431,36.1897,18.6646,47.8328,41.9335,11.202,50.7489,35.4864,11.1384,0.641,24.0738,30.8647,19.4997,31.995,18.8547,36.0189,2.7384,2.9948,50.0009,53.4461,8.1909,6.1293,1.743,19.4657,12.0599],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-5.4,"control":-8.3,"force":-0.4,"direction":-5.6,"confirmation":32.2,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":12.1,"intensity":17.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-5.4","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-8.3","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-0.4","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-5.6","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"32/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"40.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.3%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"16.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"22%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}