{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"PAYX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"54a2343f-57a7-426e-946e-60c3d038ee32","symbol":"PAYX","name":"Paychex, Inc.","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Technology","industry":"Software - Application"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently point in the same direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":12,"completedEpisodes":12,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.6,"averageExpectedMove":7.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":12,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":0.2,"confidenceLow":25.4,"confidenceHigh":74.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":12,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":1.3,"medianReturn":0.4,"confidenceLow":25.4,"confidenceHigh":74.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":12,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":83.3,"averageReturn":4.7,"medianReturn":4.7,"confidenceLow":55.2,"confidenceHigh":95.3,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":12},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":12},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":12},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":12},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":12},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":12},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":12},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":12},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":12},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":12},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":12},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":12},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":12},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":12},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":12},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":12},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":12},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":12},{"week":21,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":12},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":12},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":12},{"week":24,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":12},{"week":25,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":12},{"week":26,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":12}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":11.0,"averageExpectedMove":11.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.1,"medianReturn":-4.6,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.7,"medianReturn":-11.0,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-20.7,"medianReturn":-19.8,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-12.1,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-11.7,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-10.8,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-12.9,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.3,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-14.4,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-20.1,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-20.7,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned","tone":"positive","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned upward","use":"The advance retains underlying support while price structure and Market Dynamics remain intact.","confirm":"The advance is confirmed on the completed evidence, while extension and reversal risk still require monitoring.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":56.2,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Trend participation","title":"Let confirmation support the position, then manage extension","tone":"positive","approach":"This is most useful for holding or selectively adding to an established upward case. Risk should still tighten as price becomes extended; confirmation is support, not immunity from reversal.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 56.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.6% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 75.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.0% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":82.779999}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":127.549545},{"date":"2025-03-14","price":126.172173},{"date":"2025-04-11","price":120.132423},{"date":"2025-06-13","price":126.604431}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-01-17","price":134.977219},{"date":"2025-03-28","price":131.852203},{"date":"2025-05-16","price":132.750458}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[108.0789,109.4038,108.9186,114.1994,110.9526,111.9229,117.9127,118.7338,122.3165,121.906,120.1893,129.6744,129.6932,130.4642,130.1633,127.5495,126.9854,125.7067,127.7188,127.3991,127.7,134.9772,130.201,133.9806,135.4117,134.1621,134.7111,136.7749,131.5114,126.1722,125.4338,131.8522,128.2738,120.1324,121.1927,118.7314,124.7711,127.0052,132.7505,130.8799,132.9795,133.972,126.6044,124.543,117.2899,118.2061,117.6335,117.8053,120.2315,119.2302,116.2456,112.6448,115.7449,113.9927,111.2199,111.0273,107.6961,105.7321,101.7462,104.1724,103.768,103.3059,98.3187,94.0654,93.4425,93.2186,93.9681,94.552,96.4304,93.8805,94.4157,91.0969,95.7686,93.3354,88.7125,84.2118,82.0841,77.6021,76.026,77.3952,84.3201,79.4047,79.0403,78.8531,77.8287,72.6769,76.7156,75.3759,78.4296,78.4197,78.35,82.78,82.96,86.72,86.76,85.39,85.8635,91.5548,92.8195,98.2638,98.58,100.84,104.04,106.14],"consensus":[47.779,41.1684,0.0,76.741,0.0,37.9119,71.6511,49.9679,70.8678,40.513,13.7899,72.7471,30.373,65.1744,37.8451,0.0,14.3302,0.0,26.7864,12.7863,21.0973,72.3002,-9.2191,60.613,49.3489,9.7448,31.9895,55.8978,-39.3346,-57.2177,-47.9971,25.7558,-40.5529,-38.8647,-36.4711,-35.8747,11.8551,23.8948,48.4355,8.7016,32.2354,38.7551,-37.9354,-43.6551,-60.8243,-32.6721,-51.6268,-18.6258,13.6668,-32.237,-30.4475,-58.749,0.0,-52.795,-62.7872,-21.1949,-63.3233,-46.3151,-70.8853,-20.7257,-49.6376,-48.331,-68.563,-75.2875,-50.765,-42.5686,-28.965,-12.6808,9.3733,-39.2859,0.0,-66.1435,18.3892,-24.8113,-59.1103,-64.1386,-55.2353,-64.7195,-61.5012,-20.5722,22.5207,-41.2923,-19.3911,-13.7083,-36.4168,-70.7378,0.0,-44.6554,19.9022,9.5789,0.0,57.7773,26.2022,66.2998,51.1103,0.0,47.3219,41.8775,61.0533,76.2684,54.6401,49.581,63.1526,52.2254],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-54.8218,-65.945,-16.6738,-62.9273,-40.013,-72.0264,-9.1958,-51.18,-52.8547,-73.2887,-79.4684,-46.6565,-34.4604,-20.51,-10.0384,12.9834,-55.4979,0.0,-73.0792,31.418,-32.0458,-72.9384,-79.3296,-62.0787,-75.5779,-71.8983,-8.1109,31.5596,-60.4133,-32.5196,-19.9186,-38.1605,-75.0131,0.0,-47.4576,20.469,2.2083,0.0,52.2796,18.046,68.2021,49.4105,0.0,45.9671,29.6101,59.8083,73.9842,50.2978,38.0751,68.2626,50.1461],"force":[0.0,-54.3171,-69.2621,-3.8052,-67.1557,-33.0155,-74.7433,-16.0476,-40.5539,-40.8022,-76.9856,-79.6147,-33.8792,-22.6519,-0.4202,-16.0009,36.939,-26.8439,0.0,-78.0651,40.4853,-14.8259,-47.8013,-47.5837,-35.3446,-45.9478,-37.31,-17.1621,48.9254,-34.0219,-0.416,-6.4931,-20.9994,-86.9206,0.0,-49.3803,51.843,23.139,0.0,82.3685,14.7137,70.539,39.5048,0.0,47.6975,26.8401,50.5079,80.7443,33.3105,35.5167,38.8397,25.6506],"direction":[0.0,-49.3915,-54.5534,-44.219,-61.0385,-63.0172,-66.8254,-60.1693,-54.3633,-48.5387,-57.146,-67.4185,-67.5216,-66.0614,-59.0172,-36.1877,14.4424,-29.6449,0.0,-49.7017,12.284,-23.6756,-51.3847,-58.6023,-61.6219,-65.7181,-66.8983,-61.7667,6.6699,-24.633,-18.5349,-21.0405,-45.4365,-54.2926,0.0,-38.078,3.5603,13.3643,0.0,46.4953,43.7298,61.0977,61.3427,0.0,48.6018,66.6384,70.0086,75.6819,74.8381,72.7766,74.6788,73.5839],"intensity":[38.4615,17.3077,30.7692,46.1538,44.2308,59.6154,55.7692,21.1538,19.2308,1.9231,75.0,80.7692,40.3846,11.5385,11.5385,1.9231,23.0769,30.7692,40.3846,46.1538,63.4615,28.8462,65.3846,69.2308,53.8462,59.6154,44.2308,38.4615,90.3846,71.1538,67.3077,13.4615,9.6154,78.8462,61.5385,42.3077,46.1538,11.5385,1.9231,69.2308,34.6154,71.1538,1.9231,19.2308,21.1538,100.0,15.3846,98.0769,36.5385,100.0,65.3846,65.3846],"confirmation":[32.912,84.9099,88.2411,52.2345,88.3863,82.5115,90.7835,31.7774,83.5837,83.1675,90.1248,92.1602,83.7928,81.1385,53.861,29.3042,29.5322,79.9453,29.0325,89.4236,31.6467,75.525,86.3599,87.7883,84.9648,87.9727,86.7847,31.9509,54.6299,80.7006,50.8235,50.3949,79.157,91.0641,33.1365,82.391,53.4264,49.4626,24.6962,87.322,76.1589,89.3161,84.0275,31.2016,83.1751,81.1294,87.2346,92.5771,84.901,83.6126,87.39,91.9339],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[44.0894,20.216,15.0004,16.9491,18.1015,26.8099,14.5431,39.3431,21.8372,16.6419,10.7027,12.3334,24.6016,28.7114,33.9211,17.4695,38.4149,33.9556,12.718,12.7581,22.0434,1.9202,18.8877,17.3239,22.38,17.6393,19.2406,39.0056,16.9237,43.929,44.1492,26.35,29.4311,13.1089,32.2778,15.9984,1.3016,41.8963,21.9107,19.9332,30.7008,16.4953,24.3069,34.8424,16.7426,25.699,19.0119,11.8636,22.6785,25.183,18.4195,23.822],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":52.2,"control":50.1,"force":25.7,"direction":73.6,"confirmation":91.9,"persistence":100.0,"assessmentRisk":23.8,"intensity":65.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+52.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+50.1","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+25.7","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+73.6","detail":"Upward 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