{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"S1BS34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"5508f03e-6fa1-4cfc-a518-1aee11515c01","symbol":"S1BS34","name":"Sibanye Stillwater Limited","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Other Precious Metals & Mining"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":22,"completedEpisodes":22,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":16.4,"averageExpectedMove":25.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":22,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":59.1,"averageReturn":4.0,"medianReturn":5.0,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":76.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":22,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":8.4,"medianReturn":-0.7,"confidenceLow":30.7,"confidenceHigh":69.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":21,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":52.4,"averageReturn":15.9,"medianReturn":2.4,"confidenceLow":32.4,"confidenceHigh":71.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":22},{"week":3,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":22},{"week":4,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":22},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":22},{"week":7,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":22},{"week":8,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":22},{"week":9,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":22},{"week":10,"averageReturn":8.9,"sample":22},{"week":11,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":22},{"week":12,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":22},{"week":13,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":22},{"week":14,"averageReturn":9.1,"sample":22},{"week":15,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":22},{"week":16,"averageReturn":10.2,"sample":22},{"week":17,"averageReturn":10.3,"sample":22},{"week":18,"averageReturn":8.8,"sample":22},{"week":19,"averageReturn":9.8,"sample":22},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.6,"sample":22},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":22},{"week":22,"averageReturn":9.6,"sample":22},{"week":23,"averageReturn":9.1,"sample":22},{"week":24,"averageReturn":9.3,"sample":22},{"week":25,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":22},{"week":26,"averageReturn":15.9,"sample":21}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing while price remains rotational","use":"The repair is constructive, but price has not yet established a clear response.","confirm":"Treat the repair as constructive context until price confirms it.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 44.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 25.6% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-23","price":17.057526}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[11.9049,10.8548,9.7163,10.9431,11.2376,11.7086,12.5625,11.4437,12.4742,13.7402,13.3378,12.8569,11.5811,12.0816,12.1405,11.4927,11.8755,10.8155,10.472,9.8635,10.7174,10.6978,10.7763,10.8548,11.1394,10.7763,9.9617,9.206,10.9922,11.2277,12.3171,12.4742,9.8733,12.7686,14.231,12.5232,12.8766,14.1524,13.2201,17.0575,16.9986,18.3727,18.9026,18.9223,18.883,19.9135,22.4555,24.968,25.3507,22.4555,23.5351,21.3955,22.2199,20.0804,23.0247,22.9658,24.7521,29.1784,29.3256,29.4139,30.2187,29.4434,27.8338,27.7062,28.7073,29.0312,35.332,32.9766,35.5283,39.1597,42.477,38.1586,41.9077,44.116,50.8389,43.2032,41.8881,44.2828,40.3963,44.5576,36.235,32.9766,29.78,30.18,32.37,32.16,34.38,31.92,29.61,32.79,30.87,30.01,30.22,26.13,25.07,25.73,22.92,23.39,22.01,20.76,21.33,22.37,27.0,28.11],"consensus":[11.7542,-49.0023,-57.6306,18.0512,0.0,17.1246,44.3233,-15.3239,42.3945,55.6479,0.0,0.0,-36.8445,0.0,0.0,-34.9881,0.0,-39.906,-37.1265,-45.4302,0.0,0.0,0.0,9.3152,9.494,-18.2903,-49.6141,-47.6932,38.2667,19.2469,54.2201,34.7151,-56.6186,61.5464,61.6964,-20.238,40.1143,53.6892,0.0,78.2006,28.927,71.5376,48.0121,46.2844,29.2084,52.3316,80.2134,75.1341,38.3567,0.0,50.2272,-26.6659,24.5847,-44.7523,40.4526,17.404,56.9322,79.6531,32.8391,28.9596,31.3861,16.2051,-10.1044,0.0,15.9196,10.3688,75.0969,0.0,58.4099,77.3103,71.8685,0.0,67.688,49.0155,83.7438,-12.9606,0.0,38.9837,-22.4542,48.4336,-55.654,-55.1863,-59.6867,-33.5813,0.0,-24.1301,13.3941,-29.1515,-40.2366,20.8536,-41.1643,-21.1007,-9.4137,-56.5015,-25.0738,-36.1963,-51.6483,-17.478,-28.3798,-55.7487,-22.046,-8.0415,50.1703,-44.0806],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[45.3554,-35.8,51.7431,13.2707,63.6505,83.6034,22.8447,17.2511,17.3388,17.5614,-6.3816,0.0,23.3521,12.7737,81.6804,0.0,60.8108,79.6599,69.7422,0.0,64.3477,33.2018,88.297,-24.899,0.0,47.2008,-10.5333,52.1693,-50.8208,-54.1044,-64.5528,-26.3635,0.0,-25.1766,12.8981,-39.9228,-41.614,19.0982,-41.5321,-17.3741,-9.9533,-63.3609,-11.1647,-35.9146,-54.8637,-4.6123,-15.9323,-52.3492,-23.3588,-9.3991,43.276,-40.8152],"force":[16.5082,-83.7241,50.3052,0.7062,58.621,96.1991,6.2663,1.9304,13.6128,14.3527,-44.6344,0.0,11.2182,2.9792,85.2243,0.0,55.0749,92.1669,81.3237,0.0,81.2916,57.8408,96.7317,-78.1717,0.0,40.8801,-48.4393,71.1354,-83.8251,-56.9814,-49.5016,-7.148,0.0,-9.2123,33.4859,-24.1456,-30.6065,70.2218,-46.3402,-8.3146,-6.7969,-46.5875,-2.7142,-16.4353,-34.3962,-8.904,-11.6349,-55.5525,-14.476,-33.4918,90.4778,-54.8524],"direction":[6.6155,-27.1466,20.5117,34.0549,48.0479,63.3199,63.242,61.6472,60.1353,36.482,-10.3053,0.0,10.7835,17.1546,60.3392,0.0,58.0482,64.0132,67.5447,0.0,61.7887,60.7845,69.2631,-47.2627,0.0,28.2383,-17.5171,27.9487,-41.0554,-55.1406,-61.4006,-60.7112,0.0,-33.5896,0.3904,-20.4171,-45.5411,12.4032,-37.0468,-34.4927,-20.3761,-55.7437,-56.941,-50.6333,-60.2964,-51.026,-54.5662,-59.7738,-46.6326,-36.1566,29.2586,-40.1184],"intensity":[36.5385,80.7692,94.2308,80.7692,71.1538,100.0,92.3077,42.3077,78.8462,98.0769,55.7692,57.6923,67.3077,21.1538,100.0,75.0,76.9231,92.3077,98.0769,94.2308,88.4615,98.0769,100.0,100.0,100.0,57.6923,84.6154,82.6923,100.0,96.1538,63.4615,59.6154,40.3846,46.1538,44.2308,51.9231,55.7692,61.5385,38.4615,61.5385,1.9231,76.9231,51.9231,57.6923,84.6154,1.9231,13.4615,15.3846,5.7692,11.5385,84.6154,84.6154],"confirmation":[52.6378,83.6449,81.0731,50.4567,86.1674,93.9331,55.1843,53.9551,77.7159,29.9622,6.5409,24.9853,72.8377,48.8435,92.2393,11.7768,86.5529,93.1563,91.3185,35.4028,90.1257,84.1949,95.1245,38.7022,5.4021,80.4074,76.1589,84.1337,86.7415,85.7308,86.7152,55.3838,8.6093,75.251,50.3226,77.0118,80.5612,33.5171,81.3247,74.4194,49.2935,85.6738,52.8875,78.9849,83.9527,6.8845,76.7609,85.8854,31.6765,31.0984,85.388,82.4838],"persistence":[62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[60.8131,22.4236,34.2686,26.7865,15.7855,10.157,33.338,35.346,33.9388,1.4417,28.4261,39.0108,43.5307,17.0933,12.3678,46.7129,20.5457,11.3248,13.8785,47.2415,15.1243,22.6223,7.6535,49.3864,0.1246,17.3972,38.0826,8.0018,14.1237,21.6171,19.1751,33.0491,32.3147,2.5992,32.9507,36.5626,14.433,1.3559,18.6119,16.0435,15.0324,21.4839,37.03,30.485,24.0772,35.3244,31.4217,21.7417,24.5476,21.6972,24.1529,27.8853],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-44.1,"control":-40.8,"force":-54.9,"direction":-40.1,"confirmation":82.5,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":27.9,"intensity":84.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-44.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-40.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-54.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-40.1","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"82/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"12.2%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"17.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"32%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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