{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"V1IP34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"551607c8-5412-48dc-9210-e63e53f73f31","symbol":"V1IP34","name":"Vipshop Holdings Limited","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Internet Retail"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":9.2,"averageExpectedMove":14.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":-2.5,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":3.0,"medianReturn":-0.1,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":70.6,"averageReturn":9.3,"medianReturn":7.2,"confidenceLow":46.9,"confidenceHigh":86.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":21.5,"averageExpectedMove":21.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.2,"medianReturn":-10.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-21.5,"medianReturn":-21.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-30.5,"medianReturn":-30.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-17.5,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-16.8,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-21.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-22.9,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-23.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-23.5,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-27.5,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-27.0,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-24.3,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-31.7,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-31.0,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-31.1,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-30.7,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-30.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-30.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-30.5,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-30.5,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":47.1,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 47.1% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.0% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 14.7% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-10-04","price":44.65823},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":36.439999}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-01-02","price":47.361549}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-12-12","price":51.54475}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[32.6284,32.0981,32.1911,33.4937,33.3076,40.1366,44.6582,42.9835,37.9874,37.2152,38.7968,40.6483,37.3268,35.5963,34.8892,38.9922,38.0525,38.0525,39.1876,38.1456,36.8244,36.3779,40.4715,39.2899,37.6804,42.5184,39.4109,40.1552,45.2351,44.4722,44.4722,42.9835,41.0111,35.3312,35.2351,36.1775,36.966,40.053,42.3513,39.7356,37.9181,37.9181,40.303,39.7741,39.7741,39.7741,39.6202,42.1494,42.7937,40.0049,40.1587,44.3323,44.6689,44.14,45.0343,46.2556,46.5441,47.1211,47.1211,47.1211,48.5155,48.5155,45.6786,45.6786,45.6786,47.4289,47.4289,47.4289,51.5448,51.5448,51.5448,47.3615,46.2749,47.8905,47.8905,47.8905,43.8515,42.5437,43.6111,42.8898,40.4665,39.7356,39.3894,39.4087,37.3603,37.61,39.0,35.21,35.56,35.49,35.72,35.97,35.97,35.84,35.84,34.24,33.0,35.34,34.5,34.5,36.44,38.44,38.96,37.0],"consensus":[-56.2054,-25.0102,-47.3352,-12.7351,-11.0535,73.9694,84.1647,22.5306,-16.2886,-19.4499,18.59,39.3032,-19.9714,-50.8253,-49.1994,34.034,-10.4724,10.3681,27.0912,-22.2139,-21.4543,-10.5465,59.5835,0.0,-10.6484,63.9732,-21.576,26.6897,61.2722,10.2483,32.3461,0.0,-33.6178,-72.9006,-39.0067,0.0,-29.8215,50.8487,61.9458,-23.0834,-25.1274,-18.9797,26.8944,0.0,10.4639,10.5633,-15.1421,58.6399,41.2575,-37.4641,-8.4807,65.9302,53.3821,13.7703,57.3899,70.5585,39.0134,58.2128,37.1462,33.1402,77.3489,37.295,-38.8214,-8.1562,-10.8012,49.8076,28.298,27.3947,75.1105,40.3606,40.3321,-46.2695,-37.5618,0.0,-11.3122,0.0,-65.8152,-70.6073,0.0,-72.4874,-86.1953,-66.5949,-65.8433,-29.908,-83.7911,-39.0789,0.0,-76.7379,-21.9761,-36.6791,-20.7595,0.0,-22.8452,-23.9027,-22.3502,-50.8522,-60.9427,0.0,-38.0916,-17.6054,54.8423,76.008,39.0942,18.1089],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[60.0952,3.9739,65.466,72.8344,36.4062,66.2008,32.5803,31.8001,80.3804,33.8574,-39.9658,-1.1315,-1.0446,63.4685,25.9874,24.8038,71.7507,36.1904,35.6692,-49.8457,-17.5655,0.0,-0.2317,0.0,-70.0169,-81.5457,0.0,-70.2566,-88.0567,-60.3624,-65.8055,-11.2835,-82.7552,-37.344,0.0,-85.5702,-5.9724,-26.5475,-5.8784,0.0,-29.5766,-31.5253,-28.2771,-53.0377,-52.5325,0.0,-39.7717,-25.9006,49.1011,73.6627,16.524,32.4829],"force":[41.3706,16.0259,41.5281,82.5193,13.346,36.4575,9.1661,5.6845,89.9797,8.2044,-73.8004,-8.2722,-10.2249,77.9717,9.3987,9.6014,94.8496,10.4033,10.4175,-81.2208,-49.4228,0.0,-10.3429,0.0,-56.9802,-49.8759,0.0,-77.8929,-97.0384,-63.6301,-49.8777,-4.7662,-95.3159,-3.371,0.0,-67.7362,-16.3157,-10.2984,-19.4071,0.0,-3.017,-0.2925,-1.0431,-35.5397,-69.1603,0.0,-25.7744,-2.2599,84.678,96.7263,35.4761,72.1114],"direction":[54.2895,55.3323,59.4901,59.414,60.3269,64.6231,62.3501,54.2829,64.8623,62.0026,-12.5287,-16.1016,-22.3632,14.078,44.4381,43.0653,64.8508,66.5247,67.0287,-17.2172,-51.9427,0.0,-25.1977,0.0,-67.3241,-72.9144,0.0,-71.1756,-76.3229,-75.8356,-77.2904,-75.9604,-76.743,-71.383,0.0,-73.0738,-67.6173,-67.1015,-66.4569,0.0,-33.6253,-32.0557,-32.2861,-59.292,-64.6846,0.0,-44.9695,-22.3146,40.0925,63.8896,67.473,36.8919],"intensity":[75.0,11.5385,15.3846,25.0,28.8462,13.4615,15.3846,5.7692,32.6923,34.6154,75.0,71.1538,7.6923,48.0769,48.0769,9.6154,94.2308,88.4615,11.5385,88.4615,94.2308,53.8462,13.4615,15.3846,82.6923,80.7692,32.6923,28.8462,59.6154,38.4615,53.8462,19.2308,55.7692,51.9231,40.3846,86.5385,84.6154,19.2308,32.6923,21.1538,38.4615,17.3077,17.3077,55.7692,46.1538,65.3846,32.6923,15.3846,65.3846,67.3077,76.9231,78.8462],"confirmation":[84.6139,8.0354,85.7583,90.9086,79.7418,85.8433,79.1036,55.1219,93.0904,79.1002,81.4714,48.0539,48.9208,84.5886,76.5146,76.2635,92.6881,80.066,80.0656,83.8169,80.686,29.8279,49.149,0.631,88.7276,89.7959,37.9833,91.3947,95.8846,89.315,88.5839,55.1477,95.1802,57.2904,13.0199,92.1472,9.5899,79.0877,9.7859,6.5651,52.3967,52.1465,51.9047,83.7727,87.8803,5.9499,79.7883,50.7173,86.5463,92.9897,80.7438,37.7585],"persistence":[25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[12.8734,42.4516,21.0361,6.7077,22.3059,18.8319,25.1446,8.9122,5.0741,18.4422,18.2826,33.5742,44.2606,62.9114,32.1762,32.7861,12.4098,29.4397,29.4507,21.3745,30.7913,50.2513,42.0519,13.6456,8.0426,14.0521,46.5068,12.9438,2.7923,13.2954,16.4505,33.5303,6.8313,25.4082,14.4224,11.0616,28.9325,27.1184,38.7177,29.0699,26.1727,25.7558,16.0256,18.2818,18.5256,15.5339,17.8497,18.3837,22.4411,11.5175,30.4069,56.9382],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":18.1,"control":32.5,"force":72.1,"direction":36.9,"confirmation":37.8,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":56.9,"intensity":78.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+18.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+32.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+72.1","detail":"Upward 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