{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HLM Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"583e134d-b9a5-4c92-b3b1-a157d86139b2","symbol":"HLM","name":"Hulamin Limited","exchange":"JNB","country":"ZA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"ZAC","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Metal Fabrication"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.8,"averageExpectedMove":5.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":6.6,"medianReturn":6.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.8,"medianReturn":-5.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-34.2,"medianReturn":-34.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":10.5,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-13.2,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.8,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-17.1,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-21.1,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-27.4,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-35.8,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-26.3,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-34.2,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":61.1,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 61.1% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.9% across 18 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 14.6% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-07-31","price":190.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-11-29","price":359.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-09-13","price":380.0}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[367.0,370.0,374.0,380.0,400.0,400.0,400.0,405.0,420.0,405.0,400.0,397.0,378.0,380.0,359.0,358.0,350.0,340.0,341.0,340.0,330.0,320.0,315.0,359.0,328.0,300.0,276.0,244.0,280.0,250.0,230.0,214.0,199.0,220.0,208.0,211.0,213.0,193.0,224.0,226.0,229.0,226.0,222.0,210.0,217.0,239.0,246.0,265.0,294.0,280.0,270.0,280.0,241.0,249.0,270.0,270.0,250.0,243.0,255.0,265.0,244.0,265.0,255.0,255.0,243.0,247.0,241.0,240.0,217.0,208.0,250.0,236.0,236.0,235.0,231.0,234.0,220.0,213.0,211.0,217.0,209.0,210.0,183.0,177.0,190.0,189.0,190.0,191.0,190.0,190.0,175.0,177.0,174.0,1.74,1.74,1.7,1.61,1.64,167.0,169.0,170.0,190.0,215.0,210.0],"consensus":[-55.9653,-16.6683,0.0,0.0,34.6665,21.4152,13.8081,18.5532,33.7227,0.0,0.0,-10.6312,-49.6495,-10.4877,-38.9056,-22.1154,-32.396,-45.9974,-39.466,-32.486,-36.6012,-41.0219,-49.953,46.8757,-32.1,-40.6944,-44.3872,-61.4549,0.0,-50.6081,-48.129,-46.5112,-48.3392,0.0,-39.5826,-10.2809,-8.5369,-44.5942,24.6926,0.0,10.9555,0.0,-12.4475,-25.1676,8.2996,39.887,32.3673,46.3882,64.6018,14.6756,14.5484,29.9502,-48.8573,0.0,31.3428,0.0,-12.8629,-20.6675,0.0,22.0863,-32.0432,30.4364,0.0,0.0,-18.807,0.0,-28.0018,-15.0952,-40.2384,-47.1951,31.6635,-16.0873,0.0,-9.1723,-24.2393,0.0,-38.3645,-39.3313,-34.6887,0.0,-33.1662,0.0,-61.6891,-42.4799,0.0,-33.8981,-17.218,-9.8756,-13.6801,0.0,-60.3706,-19.8208,-35.514,-60.9547,-40.4141,-38.6719,-47.6403,-37.5263,65.0095,40.8074,43.3391,62.9526,66.8793,39.1036],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-43.338,0.0,36.8993,0.0,-14.5883,-27.8366,0.0,29.7853,-34.4932,30.9695,0.0,0.0,-23.0462,0.0,-33.6029,-13.0698,-35.1379,-48.0647,39.0917,-19.6314,0.0,-24.6661,-26.3474,0.0,-44.6043,-43.3809,-38.8942,0.0,-39.8228,0.0,-55.5861,-36.5079,0.0,-35.5963,-29.382,-22.4613,-15.4979,0.0,-61.4029,-19.1581,-37.1978,-55.0452,-26.706,-22.3269,-38.9823,-38.3535,78.7065,38.4171,42.7409,52.3088,58.3215,37.9237],"force":[-92.2947,0.0,43.1541,0.0,-30.641,-22.1981,0.0,30.3141,-56.0837,42.9136,0.0,0.0,-22.6213,0.0,-29.6585,-9.8048,-47.8693,-45.9731,46.1558,-21.2798,0.0,-10.1147,-26.1479,0.0,-41.5788,-36.4034,-25.3233,0.0,-25.9154,0.0,-84.6088,-32.5465,0.0,-22.14,-0.2991,-5.7065,-5.4182,0.0,-82.403,-6.3079,-23.9302,-45.9327,-3.4906,-1.4736,-10.5615,-0.0062,60.8205,19.7401,17.1246,73.6666,76.4405,0.3258],"direction":[-24.1385,0.0,16.5557,0.0,-1.8077,-11.381,0.0,7.4107,-12.0714,20.9149,0.0,0.0,-11.2377,0.0,-20.4172,-21.1889,-40.6169,-47.0741,12.8227,-8.3279,0.0,-9.2081,-20.4667,0.0,-28.9373,-36.7946,-36.572,0.0,-30.7378,0.0,-52.2929,-56.4005,0.0,-40.356,-15.8285,-6.622,-17.5039,0.0,-43.4535,-39.2415,-41.8639,-78.4383,-82.4543,-83.922,-84.0199,-63.3809,52.3481,58.5874,62.7475,67.4641,69.8304,68.1505],"intensity":[92.3077,88.4615,63.4615,78.8462,67.3077,40.3846,21.1538,19.2308,61.5385,61.5385,36.5385,5.7692,25.0,23.0769,9.6154,25.0,98.0769,65.3846,94.2308,38.4615,1.9231,3.8462,9.6154,28.8462,36.5385,11.5385,11.5385,42.3077,28.8462,15.3846,92.3077,86.5385,55.7692,32.6923,1.9231,3.8462,9.6154,13.4615,53.8462,15.3846,9.6154,100.0,1.9231,1.9231,5.7692,1.9231,98.0769,26.9231,13.4615,94.2308,80.7692,75.0],"confirmation":[85.0423,3.6292,78.305,24.9358,50.3506,74.551,25.7914,52.5344,78.9491,78.1118,47.44,1.4395,74.0699,25.4691,76.9257,72.7001,81.1866,83.0519,78.4608,73.2522,25.7026,27.3588,75.7826,24.5808,80.2795,80.4351,78.7509,30.4215,78.2908,4.2853,88.532,81.3818,10.1089,78.4632,50.1877,26.3776,49.4315,26.7063,87.9743,52.2355,78.9858,87.1377,57.3494,56.8237,82.2468,56.1857,88.4667,80.4528,81.0787,88.6335,89.8232,56.6827],"persistence":[75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[25.3585,48.2122,15.6714,27.536,28.9297,5.1675,36.5719,24.4691,0.2074,27.4028,2.9858,26.8353,6.4589,42.2924,25.1072,35.1933,28.1016,26.2323,8.3178,3.4146,43.5381,51.3185,30.9119,7.5758,20.3326,25.5232,26.5571,42.7021,14.8798,9.5572,16.6856,28.7523,47.6695,31.9336,40.1437,49.9536,6.84,4.5866,15.8225,35.0689,29.2564,19.4946,29.7395,30.6145,26.1227,18.6538,16.8138,28.955,27.7098,18.1755,2.6825,7.7904],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":39.1,"control":37.9,"force":0.3,"direction":68.2,"confirmation":56.7,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":7.8,"intensity":75.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+39.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+37.9","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+0.3","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+68.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"57/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"59.5","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"14.3%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"40.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"89%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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