{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"JOE Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"5ba017c4-b39e-4840-820d-401e1beaf5c8","symbol":"JOE","name":"St Joe Company","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Real Estate - Diversified"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":21,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":10.9,"averageExpectedMove":12.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-0.7,"medianReturn":-2.6,"confidenceLow":24.5,"confidenceHigh":63.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":21,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":61.9,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":2.7,"confidenceLow":40.9,"confidenceHigh":79.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":55.0,"averageReturn":3.8,"medianReturn":3.6,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":74.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":21},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":21},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":21},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":21},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":21},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":21},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":21},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":21},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":21},{"week":18,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":21},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":21},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":21},{"week":21,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":21},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":20},{"week":26,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":20}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":14.5,"averageExpectedMove":14.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.1,"medianReturn":-10.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-14.5,"medianReturn":-14.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-7.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-10.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-8.6,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.9,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-14.2,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-12.1,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":1},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving but remains below zero","use":"The repair supports the upward structure, but confirmation remains incomplete until Market Dynamics moves above zero.","confirm":"Continued repair would strengthen the upward case. Renewed weakness would leave price ahead of the underlying position.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is rising before Market Dynamics turns positive","detail":"The upward price structure is visible, but the underlying repair is not yet complete."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 12.7% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-02-28","price":47.200634},{"date":"2025-03-21","price":45.361077},{"date":"2025-06-06","price":45.430165}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price":68.594902},{"date":"2026-03-20","price":63.464924},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":61.589506}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-04-24","price":70.83691}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[59.1668,58.264,55.7026,57.7439,59.1767,57.9401,57.4593,58.1462,58.5191,52.1402,49.7359,51.8351,49.1587,49.7786,50.2608,47.5155,45.892,43.8355,44.0323,44.2979,42.9106,47.3581,47.0137,47.3285,46.0789,47.0432,45.6066,47.2006,46.3052,44.2261,45.3611,45.7065,44.3346,41.6599,42.1041,42.0745,43.4957,43.8708,46.0816,42.6864,44.1274,45.4302,45.633,46.3457,48.6224,48.9985,51.1663,48.9589,50.6615,49.3549,49.8894,49.6914,50.9684,50.085,50.7599,51.5143,50.1842,48.9733,48.8939,46.5415,47.7723,50.6805,56.358,58.0851,56.9003,57.0894,60.0454,59.9758,62.5237,61.0108,58.5425,59.5279,63.4991,65.0816,63.5986,65.8778,68.2366,69.849,71.1826,71.8296,68.5949,70.3082,63.4649,61.2703,64.9912,67.2058,68.1535,70.8369,61.5895,65.6296,63.415,63.6545,63.4749,64.7119,64.92,65.94,66.0,61.33,60.75,60.55,62.12,62.24,67.35,68.4],"consensus":[26.9033,0.0,-33.5355,30.0285,26.5256,-15.2919,0.0,20.8325,10.0838,-67.5459,-69.5804,0.0,-68.3781,-17.7523,-15.8162,-68.7236,-61.7327,-65.6603,-37.0798,-26.5045,-53.6936,37.7936,0.0,0.0,-17.1763,10.3181,-34.3865,19.0895,-16.9017,-44.6397,0.0,-9.743,-30.1113,-50.3015,-20.3163,-18.8532,12.0495,12.4899,46.9161,-36.8404,21.3768,33.4273,0.0,34.0822,60.215,43.3424,62.75,0.0,47.2779,0.0,17.1875,10.0132,40.4084,0.0,31.6486,32.6985,-19.1667,-21.5386,-12.065,-52.8411,0.0,45.8067,69.8929,59.892,14.7624,43.6293,61.3521,30.2784,68.2204,10.9284,-13.7323,26.295,61.5891,55.6909,16.9783,56.7865,61.4621,54.4254,55.8002,48.9049,0.0,37.4967,-56.0277,-48.7111,17.2227,18.8315,29.51,51.8067,-58.6194,24.3618,-36.4913,-17.601,-10.2048,0.0,0.0,23.649,0.0,-55.5401,-27.6853,-34.6749,0.0,0.0,54.5649,40.6732],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[45.454,0.0,34.0714,30.294,-21.3788,-21.4343,-7.6269,-53.2964,0.0,50.6138,62.4862,59.2751,0.0607,44.5196,62.8977,27.4169,69.5274,2.2064,-16.1027,33.1177,66.9956,58.535,6.4513,56.4915,63.6443,56.2357,58.9532,47.0712,0.0,42.2062,-47.73,-42.5799,30.5416,30.7653,27.5814,55.8077,-52.2267,27.4961,-33.1782,-9.268,-16.3295,0.0,0.0,23.8582,0.0,-53.9507,-20.9299,-33.2219,0.0,0.0,53.6851,40.7592],"force":[43.8733,0.0,30.1346,27.5993,-49.429,-33.0522,-9.0493,-59.3963,0.0,61.632,96.1771,55.5461,24.8142,21.4074,59.9357,3.9323,72.161,38.5751,-47.7229,19.9933,76.4514,47.6357,16.7916,54.9234,60.3135,42.9605,39.5253,35.0489,0.0,37.1699,-95.4987,-58.6764,47.5125,30.8866,33.1266,55.758,-92.8066,70.041,-45.752,-7.1041,-2.4975,0.0,0.0,38.3181,0.0,-78.2138,-15.2255,-21.3974,0.0,0.0,75.8014,34.2978],"direction":[32.1671,0.0,29.9611,39.089,-4.9772,-13.4339,-19.2913,-47.6385,0.0,29.0092,59.5832,63.7013,59.8334,58.4846,60.5974,52.3672,63.912,56.256,-13.2557,22.9988,44.7944,58.1942,53.1305,58.4543,59.7887,60.5456,63.8215,60.8976,0.0,32.3479,-37.3174,-48.6002,19.6343,3.4177,29.1309,44.4117,-41.5059,11.8484,-33.6628,-34.6223,-8.7105,0.0,0.0,12.9319,0.0,-41.1611,-44.3055,-45.8195,0.0,0.0,40.4015,45.1289],"intensity":[23.0769,44.2308,19.2308,38.4615,30.7692,75.0,7.6923,71.1538,17.3077,92.3077,100.0,100.0,26.9231,90.3846,94.2308,55.7692,75.0,57.6923,78.8462,13.4615,92.3077,92.3077,46.1538,65.3846,69.2308,57.6923,90.3846,92.3077,84.6154,44.2308,98.0769,98.0769,86.5385,78.8462,26.9231,69.2308,100.0,90.3846,50.0,61.5385,1.9231,13.4615,44.2308,32.6923,59.6154,88.4615,76.9231,30.7692,30.7692,65.3846,88.4615,63.4615],"confirmation":[80.9594,5.8448,78.0445,78.3448,53.4171,75.2448,49.1699,85.102,6.103,83.0672,91.2796,87.0424,9.0355,81.2706,87.566,54.2631,89.9307,10.3507,30.8887,76.1184,88.0791,85.5323,8.1465,86.1194,87.5996,85.0391,85.312,83.2552,32.515,79.9172,87.2582,83.9847,33.0868,52.2741,77.5828,84.6376,87.8975,34.3345,80.0099,50.7727,48.2707,27.3956,0.9144,76.0115,24.6433,86.4881,76.5825,78.7135,6.3828,47.3862,86.1214,44.64],"persistence":[75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[8.225,25.2686,13.8805,28.2386,16.4888,24.2577,38.869,23.544,46.5656,19.523,15.0004,20.053,42.605,27.9965,16.4085,20.5218,15.3294,41.8427,21.8371,22.8122,10.2512,19.6039,40.2897,21.4749,18.5029,22.1773,22.0713,25.423,12.3657,7.6805,21.574,25.5923,50.658,49.4801,31.8627,23.9836,6.4675,31.3432,23.6664,38.8134,27.7684,14.9652,18.7677,18.2308,29.6454,10.7,29.0737,29.2823,40.9449,25.4296,22.5231,29.6224],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":40.7,"control":40.8,"force":34.3,"direction":45.1,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":29.6,"intensity":63.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+40.7","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+40.8","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+34.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+45.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"59.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.1%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.7","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"67%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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