{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AGUA Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"5d37edc9-10bd-4347-8137-21d124a071af","symbol":"AGUA","name":"Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V.","exchange":"MEX","country":"MX","asset_type":"equity","currency":"MXN","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Building Products & Equipment"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":19,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":3.9,"averageExpectedMove":8.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":52.6,"averageReturn":-0.0,"medianReturn":0.3,"confidenceLow":31.7,"confidenceHigh":72.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":23.5,"averageReturn":-2.9,"medianReturn":-6.4,"confidenceLow":9.6,"confidenceHigh":47.3,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":35.3,"averageReturn":-2.4,"medianReturn":-7.4,"confidenceLow":17.3,"confidenceHigh":58.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":18},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":23.5,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 23.5% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -2.9% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 60.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 6.9 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 8.3% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-13","price":13.781296},{"date":"2025-07-25","price":13.130134},{"date":"2025-09-26","price":13.5106},{"date":"2026-05-15","price":13.222008},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":13.45},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":13.9}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[24.9579,24.2776,24.1804,22.8101,23.2474,23.3641,23.4029,23.3835,22.6254,20.0305,19.8847,19.8264,18.9323,17.9118,17.5425,16.7941,16.6872,14.7921,15.4432,15.0545,14.9767,16.9108,16.9108,17.3092,16.0944,14.5005,13.8202,12.1485,11.7598,11.2447,11.4585,11.6529,11.0309,10.4575,10.5449,10.9531,12.1583,12.1971,12.6928,12.6733,12.8289,13.0038,13.7813,13.6064,13.2856,13.8202,12.9163,12.7705,13.1301,13.5675,13.169,13.4314,13.6492,13.471,13.5898,13.5502,13.0454,13.5106,13.471,13.3522,13.3621,13.5502,13.2731,13.2434,13.0751,12.7485,12.7683,12.8276,12.1744,12.4,12.07,11.67,11.8,11.95,11.84,11.79,11.85,11.95,13.15,11.36,10.95,10.85,11.88,11.74,11.99,12.43,12.43,12.6592,12.6592,12.6394,13.222,13.5084,12.6987,12.9258,13.0443,13.064,13.45,13.3,13.21,13.03,13.9,13.9,14.05,13.95],"consensus":[14.0494,-23.655,0.0,-51.4449,-18.4726,-18.3988,-8.2101,0.0,-30.0296,-70.4964,-39.7835,-40.6756,-65.4454,-58.531,-47.6146,-61.6078,-39.5492,-76.6915,-19.2634,-51.1497,-40.4144,28.1772,0.0,12.2312,-31.0522,-66.5928,-57.6267,-75.0805,-51.2313,-50.6465,-30.4846,-18.6932,-50.4442,-54.1091,-25.751,-9.3878,28.1069,10.9294,33.4375,10.7796,15.9851,21.8425,40.6821,17.5063,9.3865,37.3787,-23.2578,-11.7116,19.0167,26.7062,0.0,19.8636,29.716,0.0,20.1009,11.147,-35.3932,22.208,0.0,-8.3307,0.0,16.8135,-23.8137,0.0,-26.183,-44.5311,-22.4417,-11.8252,-58.668,0.0,-49.3738,-60.1281,-10.4145,0.0,-23.7959,-22.5921,0.0,0.0,65.9736,-56.5355,-60.2326,-39.8668,27.3126,0.0,24.2416,42.5141,9.5787,37.8768,28.2138,0.0,59.6834,52.8437,-18.5408,32.8793,19.8534,19.7915,39.0355,24.7918,0.0,-12.4034,56.3129,33.4674,42.88,19.2927],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[31.6529,0.0,19.0117,11.7655,-30.6626,23.7797,0.0,-11.6477,0.0,18.0816,-31.0214,0.0,-26.5891,-47.5613,-22.8533,-6.866,-58.3135,0.0,-52.3659,-66.0512,-3.0597,0.0,-23.1494,-30.3706,0.0,0.0,59.9817,-52.326,-60.2471,-37.3107,37.0675,0.0,16.5459,41.93,2.469,35.1398,24.8421,0.0,63.1914,56.382,-28.1625,39.169,29.1781,36.5934,38.5603,25.3299,0.0,-20.2425,53.9637,32.5566,42.7475,14.0443],"force":[27.3788,0.0,15.8357,2.6488,-71.6987,33.1225,0.0,-14.6413,0.0,21.1982,-37.5561,0.0,-39.1668,-51.4661,-10.4533,-0.2234,-71.9253,0.0,-48.5304,-56.7274,-17.3435,0.0,-14.8003,-13.0631,0.0,0.0,95.9242,-91.2812,-75.3685,-27.4999,74.2289,0.0,36.7834,45.0358,5.4885,34.2686,19.0431,0.0,64.5884,43.1188,-47.6465,30.9078,8.6963,7.365,26.319,8.1611,0.0,-26.3936,71.3701,13.0589,29.2099,12.6909],"direction":[29.1719,0.0,24.3922,16.5104,-14.867,12.6156,0.0,-0.0324,0.0,12.2322,-5.7602,0.0,-16.4446,-36.1144,-30.5345,-25.7798,-49.6037,0.0,-46.5567,-55.7879,-38.647,0.0,-30.9601,-20.509,0.0,0.0,51.4283,-36.528,-49.4046,-51.6216,17.3475,0.0,24.0783,41.3805,34.1097,43.5821,38.6177,0.0,52.1707,55.7462,-13.2451,27.0993,17.1658,9.4654,48.6617,36.0558,0.0,-6.5485,48.2425,49.0859,52.7959,48.1364],"intensity":[3.8462,3.8462,1.9231,1.9231,40.3846,32.6923,5.7692,9.6154,3.8462,9.6154,26.9231,21.1538,9.6154,32.6923,26.9231,13.4615,69.2308,23.0769,40.3846,51.9231,96.1538,100.0,5.7692,3.8462,23.0769,13.4615,90.3846,100.0,100.0,32.6923,88.4615,88.4615,69.2308,55.7692,53.8462,48.0769,15.3846,78.8462,73.0769,51.9231,80.7692,78.8462,42.3077,7.6923,61.5385,40.3846,7.6923,28.8462,88.4615,59.6154,21.1538,9.6154],"confirmation":[77.4084,2.4756,74.3189,48.632,80.5044,75.4152,24.7139,48.1409,24.5219,73.4946,53.2627,47.918,76.7681,82.4151,74.8097,26.1727,87.1832,7.744,83.7283,87.0471,6.2987,7.8103,75.3504,74.8205,26.2338,2.9625,90.1156,87.2144,87.7355,80.4194,36.3887,0.6516,76.2568,81.6903,27.1538,80.0523,76.8003,4.2533,87.1947,84.5597,32.1658,78.3654,73.871,51.0319,80.111,75.4183,27.9027,51.0064,86.5148,78.1015,81.307,38.653],"persistence":[37.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[26.7984,11.8817,27.2514,9.4931,27.5794,6.3434,18.3397,25.0668,38.8551,1.3948,19.7361,17.1184,28.9687,27.6247,37.4543,41.4112,20.5051,40.1919,25.0758,19.9289,39.8803,46.3155,24.7062,34.1138,13.6719,0.1373,16.8306,1.0751,14.1757,27.1951,61.1921,24.3359,33.3804,27.7314,28.3676,24.5676,23.3626,11.3736,10.6482,17.2202,13.7555,13.5153,30.4373,53.8519,29.5053,28.1331,23.1517,1.0012,12.7152,28.805,27.2256,39.6808],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":19.3,"control":14.0,"force":12.7,"direction":48.1,"confirmation":38.7,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":39.7,"intensity":9.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+19.3","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+14.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+12.7","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+48.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"39/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"62.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"18.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"91%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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