{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SPIE Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"60a582ef-aa38-4f42-8622-641e9f1973bc","symbol":"SPIE","name":"SPIE SA","exchange":"PAR","country":"FR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Engineering & Construction"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":20,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":9.9,"averageExpectedMove":10.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":20,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":4.0,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":78.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":68.4,"averageReturn":5.6,"medianReturn":7.4,"confidenceLow":46.0,"confidenceHigh":84.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":15,"expectedPercent":83.3,"averageReturn":9.2,"medianReturn":9.2,"confidenceLow":60.8,"confidenceHigh":94.2,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":8.5,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":9.9,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":9.5,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":9.4,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":9.2,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":9.7,"averageExpectedMove":9.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-3.1,"medianReturn":-0.5,"confidenceLow":15.0,"confidenceHigh":85.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.2,"medianReturn":-3.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":26.7,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 26.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.3% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.6 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 6.4% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-08-29","price":46.316242},{"date":"2026-06-05","price":48.34},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":48.060001}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-02-20","price":50.944313},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":48.532455},{"date":"2026-05-29","price":48.900002},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":48.939999}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[32.9452,34.8551,33.6901,35.5044,35.803,34.1686,33.4571,33.0534,33.9955,33.0149,31.8612,31.6305,30.2845,29.3615,28.6501,28.9193,29.0347,28.5347,28.6116,28.477,28.304,30.2845,30.1691,30.9575,31.342,32.6111,32.3035,32.9572,39.8986,40.2255,38.418,38.1681,36.6298,36.7452,37.9566,39.091,42.1675,41.6292,42.4027,44.3008,43.7725,43.6942,43.792,43.792,46.8446,45.8271,46.101,46.238,47.7642,49.0166,52.0984,51.9028,50.9733,46.3162,45.7879,48.3317,46.9967,46.5242,44.7719,45.5398,45.2445,46.6423,43.4331,40.8539,42.6849,43.1968,45.9926,46.4652,45.7957,47.9615,47.804,48.434,48.2962,46.032,46.1895,45.4807,47.6071,48.4734,50.9443,51.6826,47.9221,44.9885,42.6652,41.8974,43.3347,47.1149,47.2527,47.9024,48.5325,49.32,47.88,48.48,48.9,48.34,48.94,49.64,51.2,52.75,48.06,47.7,48.38,46.24,46.5,47.9],"consensus":[-10.2866,49.7766,-16.1863,60.5592,36.4035,-29.7188,-16.9785,-29.3983,10.2464,-39.5006,-46.8259,-38.6372,-61.7011,-55.6131,-58.8581,-17.3796,-34.2347,-36.7264,-12.5834,-31.6566,-33.6164,45.5618,0.0,44.4073,38.2102,59.7122,20.7917,47.4977,83.8022,59.6808,0.0,28.609,-14.8815,17.3332,35.6102,54.4361,79.5643,31.4749,56.9126,71.4913,17.155,36.7747,44.668,19.9345,76.5021,12.7247,32.9156,45.8501,61.7034,53.0567,79.4468,33.0314,13.4016,-50.0863,-27.5033,29.6714,-39.3931,-12.2351,-48.6732,0.0,-27.163,21.8136,-53.3839,-69.3055,0.0,-16.814,49.2652,26.2298,0.0,53.9886,10.0772,40.3164,13.2304,-40.5666,0.0,-32.3934,35.475,37.469,67.5476,48.9005,-32.6866,-57.7558,-67.2776,-52.8666,0.0,43.5069,23.4941,31.4788,31.7123,28.502,-11.9121,23.1943,9.0779,-11.4098,15.441,15.3475,36.4422,55.5439,-34.773,-17.7141,0.0,-53.9813,-20.4523,-20.9221],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.037,-43.0763,-19.3798,44.2458,-27.7045,-12.2781,-48.0522,0.0,-22.7369,31.2646,-49.0814,-70.7846,0.0,-6.5866,47.2007,23.3142,0.0,53.2015,1.3126,46.7431,1.8953,-39.5946,0.0,-30.4524,45.4408,36.6013,73.7597,47.7555,-35.6622,-50.86,-65.1549,-54.5055,0.0,41.9509,20.3061,25.5673,28.9453,24.2119,-19.2394,25.6447,4.554,-16.0125,12.9529,9.2137,36.2854,59.8066,-45.5119,-13.0938,0.0,-50.4638,-19.0614,-26.3758],"force":[28.5845,-91.5993,-23.9075,56.9358,-76.6324,-12.0688,-61.9665,0.0,-21.681,42.3844,-71.7626,-74.5749,0.0,-5.697,89.6495,22.5296,0.0,68.9482,8.8396,27.7461,7.3329,-70.5708,0.0,-37.2016,56.5297,36.9793,73.5363,37.2187,-79.3755,-86.0781,-83.6142,-39.6653,0.0,76.1173,20.7599,36.1221,25.5534,23.104,-36.5911,25.8792,1.2075,-23.7999,8.1312,4.7686,22.9923,47.6127,-43.3514,-12.5882,0.0,-70.4354,-3.9175,-47.4481],"direction":[58.7502,-28.4456,-39.3557,6.4596,-26.152,-12.3048,-39.8876,0.0,-36.1371,3.681,-45.1733,-63.8512,0.0,-44.5817,22.7786,32.2048,0.0,44.2029,36.606,41.9504,40.8728,-20.2459,0.0,-31.1772,9.0464,38.8105,56.1705,58.5533,-4.0632,-45.4064,-58.0347,-60.4231,0.0,21.992,29.0906,34.9181,39.2737,37.2607,-14.0897,18.4761,19.8699,-2.7005,23.5058,29.9139,46.2283,56.3375,-16.3726,-26.6558,0.0,-46.2484,-33.8524,-4.2577],"intensity":[30.7692,98.0769,94.2308,82.6923,51.9231,53.8462,61.5385,28.8462,50.0,53.8462,90.3846,80.7692,63.4615,34.6154,80.7692,75.0,13.4615,73.0769,55.7692,9.6154,57.6923,73.0769,42.3077,13.4615,67.3077,73.0769,73.0769,40.3846,94.2308,90.3846,69.2308,42.3077,38.4615,96.1538,67.3077,28.8462,90.3846,71.1538,50.0,38.4615,71.1538,15.3846,3.8462,21.1538,42.3077,42.3077,98.0769,21.1538,19.2308,59.6154,34.6154,36.5385],"confirmation":[9.3196,85.3996,76.8153,56.8151,81.9188,71.9095,83.99,7.1356,76.5925,53.5819,85.7085,90.3158,11.0664,28.7323,85.0271,76.3252,27.7343,85.7443,4.9875,80.4202,28.0108,81.9105,25.1121,78.542,79.8418,79.9884,89.7031,83.3096,58.0374,87.4501,90.0591,84.49,9.7791,82.9398,75.4834,78.3048,78.0024,77.0215,30.1248,75.4667,25.4007,49.868,72.7562,50.0156,79.254,85.4674,79.2252,73.5827,25.9028,85.8291,51.3953,53.662],"persistence":[100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[42.6147,19.6041,36.1231,62.1368,28.3114,11.6314,0.0778,42.0449,22.4277,7.8373,2.0326,14.7281,41.6549,38.4968,19.7432,36.6803,47.8163,22.5821,33.8793,21.3242,38.7327,19.4432,34.7248,31.8954,41.1652,28.9316,16.1057,25.5441,25.5564,18.7777,16.3488,23.5643,45.8261,15.6667,36.997,33.9269,33.4466,25.4962,20.7182,2.8456,4.8563,20.9539,24.0731,29.8514,29.9449,22.1777,8.0469,33.3217,44.2583,22.9694,26.7083,4.4583],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-20.9,"control":-26.4,"force":-47.4,"direction":-4.3,"confirmation":53.7,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":4.5,"intensity":36.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-20.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-26.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force 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